[EL] 2012 turnout rates and ID

[Justin Levitt]

Black voter turnout was apparently higher nationally than white voter 
turnout in 2012, including in states with strict voter ID laws.  Latino 
turnout apparently dropped 21 percent in Kansas, which is a state with 
one of the strictest voter ID laws.

Put aside, for a moment, the fight about whether turnout is the right 
measure of the impact of ID laws.  (I'm skeptical.  A law saying that 
you can only vote in 2014 if you voted in 2012 would have a miniscule 
impact on turnout percentages.  It would also render more than 80 
million eligible citizens instantly ineligible.)  Even if you think 
turnout is the right measure, if you're trying to assess whether higher 
black turnout nationally or lower Latino turnout in Kansas is in any way 
causally related to ID laws, the stats above don't give you anywhere 
near the amount of information you need 
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/justin-levitt/facile-turnout-stats-on-voter-id_b_4158939.html>.

Put differently: it's just as wrong to say that voter ID caused Latino 
turnout to plummet 21 points in Kansas as it is to say that voter ID had 
no impact (or a positive impact) on turnout among black voters 
nationally.  The turnout rates are what they are. But drawing 
conclusions from them alone is nonsense.

-- 
Justin Levitt
Professor of Law
Loyola Law School | Los Angeles
919 Albany St.
Los Angeles, CA  90015
213-736-7417
justin.levitt at lls.edu
ssrn.com/author=698321

On 7/21/2014 5:58 AM, Rick Hasen wrote:
>
>
>     "Black voter turnout exceed white voter turnout, even in states
>     with strict ID laws, pundit claims"
>     <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=63559>
>
> Posted on July 20, 2014 8:03 pm 
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=63559>by Rick Hasen 
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> PunditFact 
> <http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2014/jul/17/jason-riley/black-voter-turnout-exceed-white-voter-turnout-eve/>says 
> "true:"
>
>     Riley said "black voter turnout in 2012 exceeded the rate of white
>     voter turnout, even in the states with the strictest voter ID
>     laws," despite the Democrats claiming the voter ID laws suppress
>     the black vote.
>
>     While there is debate about the reasons why --- and if the
>     phenomenon will last --- Riley's statistic checks out. Census data
>     shows that indeed, for the first time ever, black voter turnout
>     was higher nationally than white voter turnout, and at least just
>     as high in the states with strict voter ID laws.
>
> Posted in election administration 
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars 
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, voter id 
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=9>
>
>

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