[EL] Find out winners in 86% of House elections in November 2016

Thu Nov 6 17:32:34 PST 2014

Folks,

I thought I would give this list a first look at a new release from
FairVote. Below is our webpage with the link

Underscoring how predictable election outcomes are in the vast majority of
congressional elections within the current regime, I thought list members
might want a first look at our projections in all House races for November
2016. Using a very cautious model (one that has been 99.7% accurate in 2012
and 2014), we call winners in 373 races if all incumbents run -- including
213 Republican victories, just short of maintaining their majority with
very safe seats. (We've done alternate projections for seats if they become
open or if any of the still-undecided House races break toward an opponent).

These projections are final. Check them out in two years, but we are
 sublimely confident.

You can download our spreadsheet and see how the model works. One fun
feature is to adjust the projected two-party vote in November 2016. The
projections are automatically adjusted, so you can see what it would likely
take for Democrats to win 50% of seats (about 55% of the vote), where
Republicans might pick up seats if they had another big year, and so on.

It's not directly about election law, but we see it as having big
implications for how we think about laws involving redistricting (a key
factor, but one not affecting as many districts as sometimes assumed),
money in politics (something our model doesn't factor in at all), and voter
turnout (also not part of our model)

- Rob Richie, FairVote

##############
http://www.fairvote.org/research-and-analysis/congressional-elections/fairvotes-projections-for-u-s-house-elections-in-2016/

FairVote's Projections for U.S. House Elections in 2016
// Published November 6, 2014

 [image: Monopoly politics]

Today, FairVote releases its projections for the November 2016
congressional elections that will take place nearly two years from now. If
every incumbent were to seek re-election, *we project that 373 of them
would win. *In 2013, we projected outcomes in 368 House races with 99.5%
accuracy with the same approach. Here are key facts:

   - These 373 truly safe districts represent *more than 85 percent* of all
   House seats.
   - Only 14 districts are  labelled as true "toss-ups," representing
only *three
   percent* of House seats.
   - Of the Republicans' 250 seats we anticipate them to have once the 2014
   results are tallied, we project *213 winners*, just four short of an
   absolute majority. Democrats start with *160 projected winners*.
   - If all seats were open seats and voters nationally split 50-50 in
   their preference for Republicans or Democrats, we would expect the
   resulting House to consist of *245 Republicans and 190 Democrats*;
   - Even if in 2016 as many as *55% of U.S. voters* preferred a Democratic
   House to a Republican one, Republicans would still likely retain control of
   the body.

For all our projections and detailed information for each district, please
download our *Monopoly Politics 2016
<http://www.fairvote.org/assets/Monopoly-Politics-2016.xlsx> spreadsheet*.
As described more fully below, the spreadsheet allows you to simulate
projections if voters nationally favor Republicans or Democrats and to
simulate outcomes with all incumbents seeking re-election or if every seat
were open.

Next year we will showcase our projections in an update of our *interactive
map
<http://www.fairvote.org/research-and-analysis/congressional-elections/monopoly-politics-2014-and-the-fair-voting-solution/>
*showing
projections and alternative plans designed to put every voter in a
meaningfully contested election. The only changes we will make to our
projections in the next two years are to react to an incumbent no longer
running in that district - and we already have made our projections for
every district if  it becomes open - or to factor in a change in a
district's partisanship in the unlikely event it is redrawn.

*Summary of Monopoly Politics 2014 Projections*

FairVote first released its *Monopoly Politics* projections in 1997.* Monopoly
Politics 2014 and the Fair Voting Solution
<http://www.fairvote.org/research-and-analysis/congressional-elections/monopoly-politics-2014-and-the-fair-voting-solution/>*,
the most recent installment, is a comprehensive report analyzing the
effects of an increasingly polarized electorate coupled with a House of
Representatives elected exclusively from single-winner districts. That
report contained projections for 368 of the 435 house seats, using a
straightforward metric that did not rely on any information about polling
data, campaign expenditures, or any of the other typical information used
for projecting races. Instead, it projected which party's candidate would
win a seat based on how voters in that district had voted in the 2012
presidential election along with a measure of incumbency strength.

First  released in the spring of 2013 and updated as seats became open, our
election 2014 projections were correct in 366 out of 368 races, meaning
they were 99.5% accurate.

*Understanding Our Projections*

Because these projections rely only on past election performance of the
incumbent and the presidential candidates, it becomes possible to project
the results of the 2016 election immediately following the publication of
the 2014 election results. Consequently, we can now project the likely
results of 369 of the 435 house races taking place in 2016.

As you view the full spreadsheet, keep in mind that by default it assumes
that nationally voters will be split 50-50 between those who prefer a
Democratic house and those who prefer a Republican house. However, you can
change the "Projected National Democratic %" by altering the number in cell
A2 of the spreadsheet, and the projections will automatically updated to
reflect that national split, rather than the default 50-50 split.

Additionally, the spreadsheet by default assumes that every incumbent will
seek re-election, but it also provides the projection for each seat if the
incumbent does not seek re-election. As candidates announce that they will
not seek re-election, the table will be updated, so that the final
projections will reflect the reality of which incumbents are running and
which are not.

Note also that there are two unusual circumstances that may change some
projections. First, although there is no regular redistricting until 2021,
at least two states (Florida and Texas) are likely to redraw their district
lines under court order. In addition, if any incumbents leave office
mid-term and are replaced in special elections, then their districts will
have an incumbent, but the incumbent will not have the same incumbency
metric that the former member had. We will update the spreadsheet as needed
any time this occurs.

Finally, as of this publication, there are still a few 2014 house races
that have not yet been decided. By default, we assume results will match
those projected by the Daily Kos election blog
<http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/11/06/1342623/-Overtime-report-An-updated-look-at-2014-s-uncalled-races>,
but we include alternative projections for all reasonably possible
scenarios.

We expect to at least match our 99.5% accuracy from our 2014 projections in
these new projections for Election Day 2016. To learn more about how we
make these projections, why our house elections are so broken, and what the
fair voting solution could look like, visit *Monopoly Politics 2014 and the
Fair Voting Solution* at fairvoting.us.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rob Richie
Executive Director, FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
Takoma Park, MD 20912
rr at fairvote.org  (301) 270-4616  http://www.fairvote.org
*Social Media*: *FairVote Facebook
<https://www.facebook.com/FairVoteReform>*   *FairVote Twitter
<https://twitter.com/fairvote>*  My Twitter <https://twitter.com/rob_richie>
*First Million Campaign*  Thank you for considering a tax-deductible
donation
<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/o/2495/t/10346/shop/custom.jsp?donate_page_KEY=5643>
to
support FairVote's Reform2020.com vision. (Combined Federal Campaign number
is 10132.)
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