[EL] ELB News and Commentary 11/10/14

Sun Nov 9 20:20:48 PST 2014

    "Turnout Down in Texas, and Democrats Claim a Reason: Voter ID Law"
    <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68184>

Posted onNovember 9, 2014 8:18 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68184>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Ross Ramsey 
<http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/09/us/turnout-down-in-texas-and-democrats-claim-a-reason-voter-id-law.html>(Texas 
Tribune/NYT):

    Texas turnout, already the worst in the country, dropped. The
    state's population is larger than it was in 2010. More than 14
    million Texans registered to vote, according to the secretary of
    state --- up from 13.3 million in 2010. Turnout that year was 37.5
    percent. Turnout this year (the numbers are unofficial) was 33.6
    percent.

    The people who did not show up appear to be Democrats. The
    Republican numbers were up in the governor's race, while the
    Democratic numbers were way down.

    At a post-election discussion last week, Gilberto Hinojosa, chairman
    of the Texas Democratic Party
    <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/d/democratic_party/index.html?inline=nyt-org>,
    suggested the voter ID law might be to blame for the decline,
    implying that Democrats are more numerous among non-voters than
    Republicans. His opposite on the Republican side --- Steve Munisteri
    --- guffawed at that, instead crediting his own party's turnout
    efforts, the state's recent voting history and the national trend
    against Democrats.

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Posted inelection administration 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,The Voting Wars 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

    "Election Day Snafus May Lead To Legislative Action"
    <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68182>

Posted onNovember 9, 2014 8:14 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68182>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

News from CT. 
<http://connecticut.cbslocal.com/2014/11/08/election-day-snafus-may-lead-to-legislative-action/>

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Posted inelection administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

    "No end to campaign in swing state of Colorado"
    <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68180>

Posted onNovember 9, 2014 8:13 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68180>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

LAT reports 
<http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-colorado-politics-20141109-story.html>.

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Posted incampaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>

    More on FL AG Pam Bondi's Relationship with Lobbyists Via Eric
    Lipton NYT <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68178>

Posted onNovember 9, 2014 8:07 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68178>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Here. 
<http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/10/us/link-shows-how-lobby-firm-cultivates-influence.html?ref=politics>

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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,lobbying 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=28>

    "Report: Judge who was cited for voter fraud wants to keep casting
    ballots in Woodbridge" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68176>

Posted onNovember 9, 2014 7:01 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68176>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

NJ.com 
<http://www.nj.com/middlesex/index.ssf/2014/11/report_judge_who_was_cited_for_improper_voting_still_doing_it_wrong.html#incart_river>: 
"A former local judge who stepped down from the bench 
<http://www.nj.com/middlesex/index.ssf/2014/03/judge_charged_with_voter_fraud_for_improper_voting_in_middlesex_county_prosecutor_says.html> earlier 
this year after being charged with illegally voting in Woodbridge 
elections wants to have his law office declared as his legal residence 
so he can continue to cast votes in the township, anew report says 
<http://www.mycentraljersey.com/story/news/local/middlesex-county/2014/11/07/vote-fraud-ex-judge-still-trying-vote-woodbridge/18647415/>."

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Posted inchicanery <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>,residency 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=38>,voting 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=31>

    "'Dark Money' Didn't Decide the Election; But Money Matters More
    Than Ever" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68174>

Posted onNovember 9, 2014 4:48 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68174>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Important 
<http://www.newamerica.org/political-reform/dark-money-didnt-decide-the-election/>Mark 
Schmitt analysis.

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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>

    "Left struggled to move voters with Koch attacks and other big-money
    messages" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68172>

Posted onNovember 9, 2014 4:18 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68172>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Front page Matea Gold WaPo report. 
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/left-struggled-to-move-voters-with-koch-attacks-and-other-big-money-messages/2014/11/09/185b32ea-669b-11e4-bb14-4cfea1e742d5_story.html>

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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,campaigns 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>

    No, Shelby County Did Not "Abrogate" South Carolina v. Katzenbach
    <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68170>

Posted onNovember 9, 2014 3:32 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68170>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Joel Heller has a very nice piece in the/California Law Review 
Circuit/,Subsequent History Omitted 
<http://www.californialawreview.org/assets/circuit/HELLER_375.pdf>, on 
Westlaw's aberrant coding of the /Shelby County/voting rights case as 
having abrogated the original case upholding voting rights preclearance, 
/South Carolina v. Katzenbach./ From the piece's conclusion:

    In labeling Katzenbach "abrogated by Shelby County," Westlaw not
    only made an unwarranted value judgment, but also potentially swayed
    the course of the law. Advocates dissuaded from relying on
    Katzenbach could be robbed of a valuable tool for arguing in favor
    of a revived § 5 or defending other provisions of the VRA, and lower
    courts may refrain from citing the case. Yet proponents of § 5 and
    others who believe in the relevance of history should not lay down
    this tool before it is taken away by a more authoritative source
    than Westlaw. There is no need to wave the white flag (or, in this
    case, the red flag) just yet. Law review authors and editors should
    likewise hesitate before following Westlaw's instruction to label
    Katzenbach "abrogated by Shelby County."Katzenbach, especially its
    recognition of the relevance of the past, retains an important
    vitality. "[H]istory did not end in 1965," and it did not end in
    2013, either. Because history lives, this purported subsequent
    history should be omitted.

Let's see if Westlaw responds, as it should.

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Posted inSupreme Court <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>,Voting 
Rights Act <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15>

    "DeMaio Concedes 52nd Congressional District Race"
    <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68168>

Posted onNovember 9, 2014 3:13 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68168>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

AP reports. 
<http://www.kpbs.org/news/2014/nov/09/demaio-concedes-52nd-congressional-district-race/>

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Posted incampaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>

    "The Death of the Southern White Democrat Hurts African-Americans
    the Most" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68166>

Posted onNovember 9, 2014 2:28 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68166>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Jason Zengerle writes forTNR 
<http://www.newrepublic.com/article/120212/john-barrows-2014-midterm-loss-end-white-southern-democrats>.

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Posted incampaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>,Voting Rights 
Act <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15>

    "How Much of a Difference Did New Voting Restrictions Make in
    Yesterday's Close Races?" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68164>

Posted onNovember 9, 2014 11:19 am 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68164>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Wendy Weiserwrites 
<http://www.brennancenter.org/blog/how-much-difference-did-new-voting-restrictions-make-yesterdays-close-races>for 
the Brennan Center.  Once again, I'm skeptical.  Consider the analysis 
of North Carolina:

    In the North Carolina Senate race, state house speaker Thom Tillis
    beat Senator Kay Hagen by a margin of *1.7 percent*
    <http://elections.nytimes.com/2014/north-carolina-elections>, or
    about *48,000 votes*.

    At the same time, North Carolina's voters were, for the first time,
    voting under one of the harshest new election laws in the country
    --- a law that Tillis helped to craft. Among other changes, the law
    slashed seven early voting days, eliminated same-day registration,
    and prohibited voting outside a voter's home precinct --- all forms
    of voting especially popular among African Americans. While it is
    too early to assess the impact of the law this year, theElection
    Protection hotline
    <http://www.866ourvote.org/newsroom/releases/election-day-2014-democracy-should-not-be-this-hard> and
    other voter protection volunteers
    <http://thinkprogress.org/lbupdate/3588748/north-carolinas-new-election-restrictions-are-turning-away-voters/#lbu-1415129144> reported
    what appeared to be widespread problems both with voter
    registrations and with voters being told they were in the wrong
    precinct yesterday.

    Some numbers from recent elections suggest that the magnitude of the
    problem may not be far from the margin of victory: In the last
    midterms in 2010, *200,000*
    <http://www.thenation.com/blog/180608/north-carolina-will-determine-future-voting-rights-act> voters
    cast ballots during the early voting days now cut, according to a
    recent court decision
    <http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/litigation/documents/NC241.pdf#page=97>.
    In 2012, *700,000*voted during those days, including more than a
    quarter of all African-Americans who voted that year. In 2012,
    *100,000*
    <http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/litigation/documents/League1553.pdf> North
    Carolinians, almost a one-third
    <http://pdfserver.amlaw.com/nlj/nc_voting_usca4_20141001.pdf> of
    whom were African-American, voted using same-day registration, which
    was not available this year. And *7,500*
    <http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/litigation/documents/LOWVv.Howard.Complaint.pdf>voters
    cast their ballots outside of their home precincts that year.

The relevant question is: how many people who WANTED to vote this year 
DID NOT DO SO (and reasonably could not have done so) BECAUSE of the 
changes in the voting rules?  In other words, to know whether these 
restrictions were outcome determinative we would have to control for:

1. a potential decline in turnout for reasons unrelated to these laws 
(e.g., less enthusiasm in a midterm election year without an 
African-American candidate on the ballot); and

2. the extent to which voters who voted early on days which were cut 
(including through same day voter registration) wanted to vote but 
reasonably could not have voted under the alternative early voting days, 
absentee balloting, or voting on election day. There is some evidence 
that early voting turnout may have increased in North Carolina despite 
the fewer number of days because the /hours/of voting were extended, 
making it easier for some working voters to vote before or after work.

I'm not saying Wendy's conclusion is wrong---only that it is unproven 
and would take a much more nuanced analysis than this.

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Posted inelection administration 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,The Voting Wars 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

    "Dark Money Helped Win the Senate" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68162>

Posted onNovember 8, 2014 6:30 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68162>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

NYT editorial. 
<http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/09/opinion/sunday/dark-money-helped-win-the-senate.html?ref=politics>

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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>

    "Founder of Anti-Money 'Super PAC' Defends Its Poor Showing"
    <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68160>

Posted onNovember 8, 2014 6:29 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68160>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Lessig 
talks<http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2014/11/07/?entry=5344&_php=true&_type=blogs&ref=politics&_r=0>to 
NYT.

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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>

    "ACLU Files Lawsuit on Behalf of Iowa Mom Seeking to Regain Her
    Right to Vote" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68158>

Posted onNovember 8, 2014 6:21 pm 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68158>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Seethis press release 
<https://www.aclu.org/voting-rights/aclu-files-lawsuit-behalf-iowa-mom-seeking-regain-her-right-vote>.

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Posted infelon voting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=66>

    "Why everyone still hates the airline industry, in one tweet"
    <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68156>

Posted onNovember 8, 2014 10:24 am 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68156>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

My exchange with American Airlines while flying back from the U. Chicago 
election law conference makes WaPo'sWonkBlog 
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/08/why-everyone-still-hates-the-airline-industry-in-one-tweet/>.

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Posted inUncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

    Are British Campaigns (With Stricter Campaign Finance Rules) Just as
    Unpleasant as American Campaigns? <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68154>

Posted onNovember 8, 2014 9:14 am 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68154>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

So suggestsThe Economist. 
<http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/11/big-money-politics?fsrc=rss>

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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>

    "Poli Sci Experiment Takes Heat For Asking If Blacks Are 'Too
    Demanding'" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68152>

Posted onNovember 8, 2014 7:27 am 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68152>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

TPM reports. 
<http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/south-carolina-political-science-experiment-racism>

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Posted inUncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

    "Federal appeals court rejects citizenship proof rule for Kansas
    voters" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68150>

Posted onNovember 8, 2014 6:50 am 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=68150>byRick Hasen 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

The KC Star reports 
<http://www.kansascity.com/news/government-politics/article3654328.html>.

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Posted inelection administration 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,Election Assistance Commission 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=34>,Elections Clause 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=70>,NVRA (motor voter) 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=33>,The Voting Wars 
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

-- 
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org

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