[EL] rebutting George Skelton's latest claim that Cal. top-two creates a more moderate legislature

[Richard Winger]

Today Rick Hasen linked to George Skelton's column in the LA Times that says the top-two system is causing a more moderate California legislature.
Skelton only mentioned two races to support his claim.  One was a traditional Republican versus Democratic race in November for Assembly, 4th district.  The Democrat, Skelton tells us, is more moderate than the two other Democrats who ran in the primary, and this supposedly shows top-two influenced the outcome.

In June, the 4th district had two Republicans and three Democrats running.  Two of the Democrats were more liberal, and they were both from Davis.  One, Joe Krovoza, was the Mayor of Davis.  The other, Dan Wolk, was the Yolo County Attorney and a Davis city councilman.  The third Democrat, Bill Dodd, is a Napa County supervisor.
It seems obvious to me that the old semi-closed Democratic primary would also have nominated Dodd.  40% of the November 2014 vote came from Yolo County, which is the only truly liberal county in the central valley.  But with two Democrats from Yolo County, it was fairly easy for a Napa County candidate to win.  Napa is the second biggest bloc of votes in the district, and it cast 21.4% of the votes in November in this race.  Another 25% comes from Lake, Colusa and Solano Counties, and 14.6% from Sonoma County.  Basically, the two Davis Democrats split up the vote from the northeast half of the district, making the single Democrat from the southwest half of the district in a position to win.
This result would have happened without top-two.  The Republicans voting in the primary had two Republicans to choose from and likely did not have a hand in causing Dodd to win the primary.
The other race Skelton mentioned is for Assembly, 15th district, Richmond and Berkeley.  Skelton said Tony Thurmond is business-friendly and his only opponent, Elizabeth Echols, is "far-left".  I have read many newspaper stories about this race.  Thurmond has been a city councilman and he consistently voted against the interests of Chevron, which is a big player in Richmond city politics.  Thurmond is black.  Echols is white.  Echols put out campaign literature suggesting that Thurmond is business-friendly, but her campaign literature was considered so unfair and misleading, many liberal voices and press endorsed Thurmond.  Echols was formerly with the Obama administration and I didn't find anything in any newspaper that suggests she is "far left."  Another aspect of this race is that Berkeley has filled this seat for so many decades, many felt it was time for the Richmond and Contra Costa half of the district to have a representative.
What Skelton did not mention is any of the Republican-versus-Republican races for Congress, State Senate, or Assembly.  If he had mentioned the Republican races, his thesis would have been injured.  Those races were:1. US House 4, between Tom McClintock and Art Moore.  There is a consensus in this race that McClintock is the conservative and Moore is the moderate.  Pete Wilson endorsed Moore, but McClintock won.2. US House 25, between Steve Knight and Tony Strickland.  Both are very conservative, but Jon Fleischman wrote on Breitbart blog on November 5 that Strickland is the more moderate of the two.  Knight won.3. State Senate 28, Riverside County, between Bonnie Garcia and Jeff Stone.  There is no doubt that Garcia was the moderate and Stone the conservative.  Charles T. Munger, Jr., who spends to help moderate Republicans defeat conservative Republicans, spent $663,000 helping Garcia.  Stone said in a candidate debate that he admires Maricopa County, Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio.  Stone won.4. Assembly 26, Tulare County, between Rudy Mendoza and Devon Mathis.  I read all the newspaper articles about this race that I could find.  There is nothing to suggest that either one was more or less moderate or conservative than the other.  Mendoza had the support of Republican Party leaders, including the outgoing incumbent, but Mathis won, in a surprise.Assembly 71, Orange County, between Brian W. Jones and Tony Teora.  Teora described himself as a moderate.  Jones won.5. Assembly 74, Orange County, between Matthew Harper and Keith Curry.  Both described themselves as conservatives.  However Harper opposes the top-two system whereas Curry says it has problems but he still supports it.  Harper won.6. Assembly 76, San Diego County, between Rocky Chavez and Thomas Krouse.  Chavez is a standard California Republican legislator.  Krouse recently registered into the Republican Party and is not a conservative.
Of course a newspaper column is not a political science paper, but George Skelton had wanted to write a balanced column, he should have mentioned the Republican race results.   Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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