[EL] State by State party ID breakdown

Thu Dec 3 06:37:16 PST 2015

Thanks so far for the responses  but maybe I was unclear in my request.  I
do not care how people actually voted and I do not care who won the
election.  What I want to know is among those surveyed in each state how do
they self-identify in terms of their partisan affiliation, especially
during a presidential race.

On Thu, Dec 3, 2015 at 8:23 AM, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org> wrote:

> I would qualify Charles' helpful post by adding that the most reliable way
> to use the presidential results is not as a "straight tally", but in a
> relative sense. That is, given that Obama defeated Romney by four
> percentage points in the two-party vote even as the underlying partisan
> balance in the country is assume to be about 50-50, then a state that
> mirrored the national average with a 52% to 48% tally has partisan balance,
> while a state like Florida that was dead even in the 2012 race in fact is a
> Republican-leaning state.
>
> FairVote developed this "partisan index" approach in 1997 with our first
> "Monopoly Politics" report based on the most recent election, and then
> Charlie Cook later that year adapted it to the "partisan voting index" by
> factoring in the last two elections. We keep using the single election
> method and find it controls outcomes in most partisan elections.
>
> Here are just two examples of its connection to state legislative results
> from an analysis we're doing on the impact of independent redistricting
> commissions. Keep in mind that the legislative seats were elected largely
> in 2014, but the relative 2012 presidential vote dominates outcomes.
>
> *Arizona*: Out of 80 seats, total of 3 have "partisan mismatch
>
> * 30 legislative districts each used to elect 1 state senator and 2 house
> members
>
> - 12 have Democratic partisanship, and all have 1  Democratic senator and
> 23 of 24 house members are D's
> - 18 have Republican partisanship, and R's win 17 of 18 senators and 35 of
> 36 in house
> - Of 30 districts, 5 are a generously defined competitive area between
> 43.6% and 58.3% partisanship
>
> *California*: Out of 120 seats, total of 7 Republicans in Democratic
> districts and none in Republican districts
>
> * CA state senate, 40 seats
> - 2 R's in D in districts, and no D's in R districts
>
> * CA assembly, 80 seats
> -  5 R's in D district and no D's in R districts
>
> TO be sure there are exceptions here and in other states -- especially
> when picking governors. But the number of "mismatches" keeps declining.
>
> Rob
>
>
> On Thu, Dec 3, 2015 at 8:56 AM, Charles Stewart III <cstewart at mit.edu>
> wrote:
>
>> I think most political scientists (or at least many) would say the best
>> quick place to start is just to take recent election returns in
>> presidential elections.
>>
>>
>>
>> I like Leip’s presidential atlas for such things:
>> http://uselectionatlas.org/.
>>
>>
>>
>> Rather than take just the 2012 election, you might want to average 2008
>> and 2012.
>>
>>
>>
>> Party registration is a non-starter, so don’t even try that one.
>>
>>
>>
>> There may be a source out there that reports party identification from
>> the big national academic surveys (like the CCES), and maybe someone on the
>> listserv would run that table for you quickly.
>>
>>
>>
>> The book “Statehouse Politics” is probably out-of-date for your purposes,
>> but you might want to give it a look in any case.
>>
>>
>>
>> -cs
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*
>>
>> *Charles Stewart III*
>>
>> *Kenan Sahin Distinguished Professor of Political Science *
>>
>>
>>
>> *Department of Political Science*
>>
>> *The Massachusetts Institute of Technology*
>>
>> *E53-449*
>>
>> *30 Wadsworth Street*
>>
>> *Cambridge, Massachusetts   02139*
>>
>>
>>
>> *Office:  617-253-3127 <617-253-3127>*
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:
>> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf Of *Schultz,
>> David A.
>> *Sent:* Thursday, December 03, 2015 8:43 AM
>> *To:* michael.mcdonald at ufl.edu; law-election at uci.edu;
>> lawcourt-l at legal.umass.edu
>> *Subject:* [EL] State by State party ID breakdown
>>
>>
>>
>> Hi all:
>>
>>
>>
>> Does any one know of a database that has already organized state by state
>>  population party identification  or affiliation over the last few election
>> cycles?   (I.e. of those surveyed, what percentage identify as Democrat,
>> Republican, or independent).   I would prefer to be able to look at
>> presidential election cycles over the last few elections but also including
>> congressional (midterm) is fine too.  What I have in mind is the exit poll
>> data that does the state by state breakdown of partisan affiliation.  I
>> know I can go back and go to CNN or other sites and create the data myself
>> but before I do that I want to see if anyone has already done that.
>>
>>
>>
>> Thank you.
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> David Schultz, Professor
>> Editor, Journal of Public Affairs Education (JPAE)
>> Hamline University
>> Department of Political Science
>>
>> 1536 Hewitt Ave
>>
>> MS B 1805
>> St. Paul, Minnesota 55104
>> 651.523.2858 (voice)
>> 651.523.3170 (fax)
>> http://davidschultz.efoliomn.com/
>> http://works.bepress.com/david_schultz/
>> http://schultzstake.blogspot.com/
>> Twitter:  @ProfDSchultz
>> My latest book:  Presidential Swing States:  Why Only Ten Matter
>>
>>
>> https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780739195246/Presidential-Swing-States-Why-Only-Ten-Matter
>> FacultyRow SuperProfessor, 2012, 2013, 2014
>>
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>
>
>
> --
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> Rob Richie
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-- 
David Schultz, Professor
Editor, Journal of Public Affairs Education (JPAE)
Hamline University
Department of Political Science
1536 Hewitt Ave
MS B 1805
St. Paul, Minnesota 55104
651.523.2858 (voice)
651.523.3170 (fax)
http://davidschultz.efoliomn.com/
http://works.bepress.com/david_schultz/
http://schultzstake.blogspot.com/
Twitter:  @ProfDSchultz
My latest book:  Presidential Swing States:  Why Only Ten Matter
https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780739195246/Presidential-Swing-States-Why-Only-Ten-Matter
FacultyRow SuperProfessor, 2012, 2013, 2014
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