[EL] State by State party ID breakdown

Fri Dec 4 12:08:06 PST 2015

David,

Here are the crosstabs from the CCES (2006, 2008, 2010, 2012) with survey
weights for both the 3pid and the 7pid. My R code is below, so you can see
the names of the relevant variables should you want to replicate this on
your own. (CCES data is available here
<http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/cces/data>). I haven't compared these
results to MRP estimates of party self-identification, but I agree with
Charles that you probably want to average over some of these years,
depending on your project.

Best,
Doug

-----
*Douglas M. Spencer*
*Associate Professor of Law & Public Policy*
University of Connecticut
http://www.dougspencer.org

library(descr)

## 2006
# 3 pid
crosstab(cc06$v1002, cc06$v3005, weight=cc06$v1001, prop.r=T, plot=F)
# 7 pid
crosstab(cc06$v1002, cc06$v3007, weight=cc06$v1001, prop.r=T, plot=F)

## 2008
# 3 pid
crosstab(cc08$V206, cc08$CC307, weight=cc08$V201, prop.r=T, plot=F)
# 7 pid
crosstab(cc08$V206, cc08$CC307a, weight=cc08$V201, prop.r=T, plot=F)

## 2010
# 3 pid
crosstab(cc10$V206, cc10$V212a, weight=cc10$V101, prop.r=T, plot=F)
# 7 pid
crosstab(cc10$V206, cc10$V212d, weight=cc10$V101, prop.r=T, plot=F)

# 2012
# 3 pid
crosstab(cc12$inputstate, cc12$pid3, weight=cc12$weight, prop.r=T, plot=F)
# 7 pid
crosstab(cc12$inputstate, cc12$pid7, weight=cc12$weight, prop.r=T, plot=F)

On Thu, Dec 3, 2015 at 10:48 AM, Paul Gronke <paul.gronke at gmail.com> wrote:

> David
>
> Well, there is an hour of my life I’ll never get back!  The things you do
> for an editorial board member ...
>
> This is a great question, and I wish I could find a better answer for you.
> I’m honestly surprised that that data providers that I list below have not
> made easier to produce.
>
> I am assuming for the moment that you are a non-technical user, I
> apologize if that is the wrong assumption, but the point is that data
> providers should, in my view, service the non-technical as well as the
> technically sophisticated audience.   In fact, I’d say it is more important
> to serve the non-technical audience.  Charles Stewart and I can always find
> the answer to this kind of question, but in some respects it’s a lot more
> important for journalists, advocates, and heck regular old citizens to be
> able to easily find some reliable data that speaks to some sort of social
> and political concern.
>
> Sorry if I am editorializing …
>
> The reason you cannot easily find the answer you want, as Charles sort of
> implied in his response, is that most national surveys are not designed to
> produce reliable samples at the state level.  So you will see below that if
> you had asked “What is the balance of partisan identification over the past
> 40 years,” there is a very easily accessible source to answer your
> question.  But you asked about STATE level estimates, and that’s where it
> gets more difficult.
>
> In each listing below, I provide a link to an online data analysis tool
> and tell you why you cannot produce what you want.
>
>
> 1) Cooperative Congressional Election Study: is a large (N=35,000-50,000)
> survey designed to produce state level estimates.  The 2012,, 2010. and
> 2008 versions are publicly available.
>
> I went here first because this SHOULD be a place to relatively easily
> obtain the information you want.   BUT the problem is that the online
> analysis tool (“Two Ravens”) is nearly impossible to use, at least I could
> not figure out how to use it.  My memory is that it used to be easier and
> have more exploratory tools, now there are lots of advanced tools—every
> multivariate analysis tool you’d want—but producing a simple crosstab of
> party ID x state seems to be impossible.  Someone will surely correct me if
> I’m wrong, but I’m at a loss.
>
> URL of the 2012 dataset:
> https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=hdl:1902.1/21447
> URL of the series: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/cces
> <https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/cces>
> URL of the data exploration tool:
> https://rserve.dataverse.harvard.edu/dataexplore/gui.html?dfId=2500154&
>
> —> This by the way is what I would recommend, download data subsets of the
> 2012, 2010, and 2008 CCES, but you’re still going to have to process these
> with a statistical program.  If go this route, the variables you want are
> named weight, inputstate, pid7, and pid3.
>
> 2) National Exit Polls: These are housed at the Roper Center (
> https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/) and can also be used to obtain state
> level estimates of partisanship among those who turned out to vote.  Roper
> Center has created an online data analysis tool called the Roper Explorer
> that provides a nice interface to do various kinds of analyses, although
> not all surveys are integrated into the Explorer system.  Your academic
> institution needs to be a member to use IPoll and the Explorer system.
>
> Problem?  The NEP have been restricted as of January 1, 2014.  Perhaps a
> list member may know why this has become the case; I don’t think is used to
> be the case.  If you gain access, I’m not sure they are accessible via the
> Explorer system.  Its very likely that you could find state level polls to
> construct state level party ID but this would be a very tedious exercise.
>
> URL of the 2008 NEP:
> https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/CFIDE/cf/action/catalog/abstract.cfm?label=&keyword=USMI2008-NATELEC&fromDate=&toDate=&organization=Any&type=&keywordOptions=1&start=1&id=&exclude=&excludeOptions=1&topic=Any&sortBy=DESC&archno=USMI2008-NATELEC&abstract=abstract&x=32&y=9
>
> 3) The National Election Study and the General Social Survey: both are
> very high quality national polls conducted in presidential election years
> and off years, though the NES off year coverage stopped after 2008 (if
> memory serves) due to funding.  Both are NOT intended to provide state
> level estimates, sample sizes are between 1500-2500.
>
> These surveys are some of the best to get quick and very reliable answers
> to a lot of questions about public opinion on a wide variety of political,
> social, and economic issues.  The have been conducted for decades, so if
> you wanted to know how the public’s attidues have changed about abortion,
> or gun control, or the state of the economy, all of this is readily
> accessible.
>
> And best of all, in my view, both have been integrated into a powerful and
> I think relatively easy to use online data analysis system (“SDA”).  It’s
> not point and click, but requires no specialized software.
>
> URL for the GSS and NES at Berkeley: http://sda.berkeley.edu/archive.htm
>
> Below is a graphic I produced in 30 seconds demonstrating that the level
> of Independent affiliation has not continued to grow, contrary to what many
> in the media continue to assert (it grew in the 1970s but has remained
> relatively stable or declining since then).
>
>
> 4) Reuters Election Polling: I mention this only because it is a very
> slick graphical interface that lets you quickly plot Reuters polling data
> on a variety of subjects and using a variety of controls and filters.  No
> state level data.
>
> URL: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/
>
> Long and long?  I can’t help you!
>
> tl;dr
>
> Happy holidays,
> Paul g.
>
>
> ---
> Paul Gronke
>
> Professor, Reed College and
> Daniel B. German Endowed Visiting Professor, Appalachian State University
>
> Director, Early Voting Information Center
> 3203 SE Woodstock Blvd
> Portland OR 97202
>
> EVIC: http://earlyvoting.net
>
>
>
>
> <http://people.reed.edu/~gronkep/36E051EA.asc>
>
> On Dec 3, 2015, at 8:42 AM, Schultz, David A. <dschultz at hamline.edu>
> wrote:
>
> Hi all:
>
> Does any one know of a database that has already organized state by state
>  population party identification  or affiliation over the last few election
> cycles?   (I.e. of those surveyed, what percentage identify as Democrat,
> Republican, or independent).   I would prefer to be able to look at
> presidential election cycles over the last few elections but also including
> congressional (midterm) is fine too.  What I have in mind is the exit poll
> data that does the state by state breakdown of partisan affiliation.  I
> know I can go back and go to CNN or other sites and create the data myself
> but before I do that I want to see if anyone has already done that.
>
> Thank you.
>
> --
> David Schultz, Professor
> Editor, Journal of Public Affairs Education (JPAE)
> Hamline University
> Department of Political Science
> 1536 Hewitt Ave
> MS B 1805
> St. Paul, Minnesota 55104
> 651.523.2858 (voice)
> 651.523.3170 (fax)
> http://davidschultz.efoliomn.com/
> http://works.bepress.com/david_schultz/
> http://schultzstake.blogspot.com/
> Twitter:  @ProfDSchultz
> My latest book:  Presidential Swing States:  Why Only Ten Matter
>
> https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780739195246/Presidential-Swing-States-Why-Only-Ten-Matter
> FacultyRow SuperProfessor, 2012, 2013, 2014
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