[EL] ELB News and Commentary 11/19/15
Rick Hasen
rhasen at law.uci.edu
Thu Nov 19 07:46:17 PST 2015
Today’s Must-Read: New CFI Report on Small Donors and Public
Financing <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77688>
Posted onNovember 19, 2015 7:45 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77688>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Among the key findings of thenew CFI report:
<http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/books-reports/CFI_CitizenFundingforElections.pdf>small
donors are not (necessarily) more polarized than other individual
donors. This has been a key question in the debate over small donor
public financing.From the release:
<http://www.cfinst.org/Press/PReleases/15-11-19/CFI_Report_Citizen_Funding_for_Elections.aspx>
Citizen Funding for Elections
What do we know?
What are the effects?
What are the options?
Download Full Report
<http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/books-reports/CFI_CitizenFundingforElections.pdf>.
TheCampaign Finance Institute <http://www.cfinst.org/>today released
a new report written by Michael J. Malbin – CFI’s executive director
and a professor of political science at the University at Albany
(SUNY). The report’s title is/Citizen Funding for Elections: What do
we know? What are the effects? What are the options?/
The following description is excerpted from the executive summary:
Political campaigns have always been financed disproportionately by
people with above average incomes…. But the balance has tilted
almost beyond recognition since the Supreme Court’s 2010 decision
in/Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission/…. As a result, a
number of jurisdictions have been looking recently to rebalance the
incentives through new (or updated) citizen funding programs or tax
credits to enhance the role of small donors.
When looking at these new programs and proposals, it is striking how
common impulses have led to a wide variety of policy ideas, and an
even wider set of justifications and expectations about what the new
programs are meant to accomplish. Some want to drive money out of
politics; some to increase competition; some to bring a different
type of politician into office; and some to enhance participation.
In light of this policy ferment, this report seeks to lay out for
policy makers what is known and not yet known about whether citizen
funding and other incentive programs have accomplished or are likely
to accomplish their stated goals.
To preview the conclusions:
o It is obvious – certainly in the new world of independent
spending – that citizen funding programs do not and cannot
squeeze private money out of politics.
o However, a properly designed program can increase the
proportional importance of small donors to candidates and
increase participation by an economically and
demographically more representative cadre of campaign
supporters. Candidates may choose to depend on large donors
if they wish, but a well-structured program can make it
possible for a candidate to choose otherwise. In the most
effective programs, substantial percentages of the
candidates make this choice and participate.
o Interestingly, these results probably do not occur because
small donors react spontaneously and directly to matching
funds or tax credits. Instead, the research suggests (but is
not yet conclusive) that the incentives work by affecting
candidates (or political parties and other intermediary
actors). The small donors are worth more (both financially
and as volunteers), so the candidates and others are willing
to spend more time and resources to mobilize them.
o Whether increasing small donors will favor political
polarization will depend on a program’s details, but small
donors generally are not more polarized than other
individual donors.
o Citizen funding may also affect other aspects of a
candidate’s behavior – from deciding to run, to how they
conduct campaigns. However, the research here is not fully
settled.
o The findings are similarly mixed with respect to electoral
competition. Public money seems to help when competition is
defined one way (focusing on whether races are uncontested
or whether candidates run), but not if defined differently
(with a focus on the margins of victory in competitive
races, or the defeat of incumbents).
o Research on the post-election effects in government finds
more of an impact on agenda-setting than on end-stage roll
call votes.
o Policy-makers need to be aware that answers often depend
upon the precise questions asked.
o Finally, and very importantly from a policy-maker’s
perspective, the research shows clearly that a
program’s/fine-grained details can make a huge difference in
outcomes/. For supporters of citizen funding or tax
incentives, this means that passing a program with a
good-sounding label will not be enough to accomplish their
goals. Neither will it be enough to focus only on what their
supporters think they can “sell”. Selling may be a necessary
condition for accomplishing goals, but not a sufficient
condition. The politics of persuasion is not policy
analysis. A program that works will be based on the best
available evidence – including the best practices for
implementation after a bill becomes law.
The report concludes with the following:
Incentive programs do not accomplish everything their supporters
have enthusiastically claimed for them. But what they accomplish can
be quite significant…. Today’s incentives produce today’s politics.
Changing the incentives could change tomorrow’s.
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Posted inUncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
“New Study: Small Donor Matching Program Would Incentivize Shift in
2016 Presidential Fundraising Strategies”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77686>
Posted onNovember 19, 2015 7:32 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77686>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Release
<http://www.uspirg.org/news/usp/new-study-small-donor-matching-program-would-incentivize-shift-2016-presidential>:
Candidates in the 2016 presidential race would see a dramatic shift
in fundraising success under a proposed small donor public financing
system, according to*a study released on Thursday by U.S. PIRG
Education Fund*
<http://www.uspirg.org/reports/usp/boosting-impact-small-donors-q3-2016>.
Using third quarter fundraising data filed with the Federal Election
Commission (FEC) this October, the report examines the impact of a
program that matches small contributions with limited public funds
for candidates who agree not to accept large donations.
“Right now, most candidates from both parties are dependent on large
donors to fund their campaigns, while voters across the political
spectrum are calling for reform,” said Dan Smith, Democracy Program
Director for U.S. PIRG Education Fund and report author. “It doesn’t
have to be that way. A small donor matching program would
fundamentally change the way our elections work, giving candidates
who engage with regular Americans a chance to compete with
fundraising by those who choose to rely on big money.”
U.S. PIRG Education Fund’s study examines the impact of a small
donor matching system similar to those proposed in the Government by
the People Act (H.R. 20) and the Fair Elections Now Act (S. 1538).
Both of these bills propose a program that would match small
contributions with limited public funds at a rate of six-to-one or
more and establish lower maximum contribution limits for
participating candidates.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
“Ranked-choice voting question certified for November 2016 ballot”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77684>
Posted onNovember 19, 2015 7:30 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77684>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
News from Maine
<http://bangordailynews.com/2015/11/18/politics/ranked-choice-voting-question-certified-for-maines-november-2016-ballot/>:
Maine’s secretary of state has authenticated signatures on a citizen
initiative to implement ranked-choice voting in Maine, which means
voters will decide whether to implement the system at the polls in
November 2016.
More than 70,000 signatures in support of the initiative from
registered Maine voters, which have been collected over the past
year,were submitted in October
<https://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fbangordailynews.com%2F2015%2F10%2F12%2Fpolitics%2Fmaine-group-launching-campaign-for-ranked-choice-voting%2F&sa=D&usg=AFQjCNGSXtxVfI6KLCDRPpKyhBDQ2ADkYQ&ref=inline>.
Under the proposal from Ranked Choice Voting Maine, the state would
become the first in the nation to fully use a ranked-choice ballot
system for its elections.
Ranked-choice voting would allow voters to rank candidates in
multi-candidate races in order of preference creating an “instant
runoff” when no single candidate receives more than 50 percent of
the total vote. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of all
votes cast, the candidate with the lowest number of top vote choices
is eliminated and an instant runoff takes place between the
remaining candidates, counting second place and if necessary third
place votes to see which candidate has the highest total number of
votes to become the winner.
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Posted inalternative voting systems <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=63>
“Montana Is Latest State to Reform Campaign Finance Rules”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77682>
Posted onNovember 19, 2015 7:29 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77682>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
AP
<http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/montana-latest-state-reform-campaign-finance-rules-35290477>:
Montana <http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/montana.htm>is the latest
state to overhaul its campaign-finance rules in an attempt to cast
out dark money after the U.S.Supreme Court
<http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/us/supreme-court.htm>allowed
corporations to spend unlimited amounts in elections.
The architect of the changes in Montana said the new rules will
create a high level of transparency in the state with a history of
election corruption, and will be effective because of Montana’s
relatively small population of 1 million people.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
WaPo DEEEEP Dive into Clinton Donor Network
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77680>
Posted onNovember 19, 2015 7:28 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77680>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Here. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/clinton-money/>
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,campaigns
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
“Tech moguls shun Clinton super PAC”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77678>
Posted onNovember 19, 2015 7:26 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77678>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Politico reports.
<http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/tech-moguls-shun-clinton-super-pac-216040>
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
“Jeb Bush Proves Money Isn’t Everything In Politics”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77676>
Posted onNovember 19, 2015 7:25 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77676>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Peter Overby
reports<http://www.npr.org/2015/11/19/456619737/jeb-bush-proves-money-isnt-everything-in-politics>for
NPR.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,campaigns
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
“Martin O’Malley Likely To Accept Public Funding, Campaign Says”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77674>
Posted onNovember 18, 2015 7:34 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77674>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Sign of weakness
<http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/martin-omalley-likely-to-accept-public-funding-campaign-says#.bkY2D1pPb>for
the O’Malley campaign.
For a successful campaign, the opportunity costs now of opting into
public financing given how it restricts spending are just too high:
The last major candidate to adhere to such strict spending limits
was John Edwards, the former U.S. senator and vice presidential
nominee who opted into the matching program in the fall of 2007.
His campaign manager, Joe Trippi, now likens a publicly financed
candidate to a terminally ill person on life support. If O’Malley
goes through with his plan to accept matching funds, “that is
effectively the end of his campaign,” said Trippi. “No campaign that
is serious can win taking that money.”
“It is a brutally tough decision to make,” he said. “They know this
— it’s akin to a doctor sitting down a patient and telling them they
are terminally ill, informing them that they have days to live and
there is nothing that can be done to save them, but there is
something that can be done to give them another few months of life.”
And given the choice, “who wouldn’t pick extending the inevitable?”
said Trippi.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,campaigns
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
“Why is Sen. Harry Reid being investigated in Utah?”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77672>
Posted onNovember 18, 2015 7:26 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77672>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
AP
<http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2015/1118/Why-is-Sen.-Harry-Reid-being-investigated-in-Utah>
A Utah county prosecutor said Wednesday he is investigating U.S.
Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada in connection with a pay-to-play scheme
involving two former Utah attorneys general.
Davis County Attorney Troy Rawlings, a Republican, said in a
statement that he’s looking into allegations related to the
Democratic senator.
Rawlings declined to disclose the allegations and only said the
claims are based on information from witnesses in the attorneys
general case.
Reid, who hasn’t been charged, fired back at Rawlings in a statement
from his spokeswoman Kristen Orthman. She said Rawlings is using
“Sen. Reid’s name to generate attention to himself and advance his
political career, so every few months he seeks headlines by floating
the same unsubstantiated allegations.”:
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Posted inchicanery <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>
“Stanislaus County election official not concerned about Measure I
complaint” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77670>
Posted onNovember 18, 2015 6:16 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77670>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
The Modesto Bee report
<http://www.modbee.com/news/politics-government/election/article45291837.html>s:
County Registrar of Voters Lee Lundrigan said Tuesday she disagreed
with Jackman. Referring to Elections Code section 9280, Lundrigan
said there is no legal requirement to print the text of voter
initiatives in the sample ballot.
“In the event the entire text of the measure is not printed on the
ballot, nor in the voter information portion of the sample ballot,”
the code says, the city can print a phone number and instructions
for ordering a copy of the initiative below the impartial analysis.
The impartial analysis for Measure I did not offer a phone number or
instructions for obtaining a copy of the initiative. Local officials
will wait to see if the state considers that a serious omission.
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Posted inelection administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>
“How to Waste a Billion Dollars: This was supposed to be the era of
big-money politics. So why does it seem to buy so little?”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77668>
Posted onNovember 18, 2015 6:14 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77668>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Michael Beckel
<http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/money-in-politics-waste-billion-dollars-koch-brothers-213374?utm_source=hootsuite>in
Politico.
I address this question in the opening of my upcoming book,Plutocrats
United
<http://www.amazon.com/Plutocrats-United-Campaign-Distortion-Elections/dp/0300212453/ref=la_B0089NJCR2_1_7?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1430416698&sr=1-7>.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,campaigns
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
“Secret donors fuel Democratic political powerhouse”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77666>
Posted onNovember 18, 2015 4:29 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77666>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
CPI
<http://www.publicintegrity.org/2015/11/18/18875/secret-donors-fuel-democratic-political-powerhouse>:
Democratic Party-aligned “dark money” powerhouse Patriot Majority
USA collected half of the $30 million it raised last year from five
anonymous donors, according to aCenter for Public Integrity
<http://www.publicintegrity.org/>analysis of anew tax filing
<https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2515644-patriot-majority-usa-irs-form-990-for-2014.html> from
the group.
Patriot Majority USA was amajor player
<http://www.publicintegrity.org/2014/09/03/15436/can-dark-money-group-help-democrats-keep-senate>in
the Democrats’ failed bid to retain control of the U.S. Senate last
year — a time when many Democratic candidates decried the influx of
“dark money” in politics.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,tax law
and election law <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=22>
Bernie Grofman’s Proposed Redistricting Plans for VA Congressional
Redistricting <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77664>
Posted onNovember 18, 2015 11:45 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77664>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Via Daily Kos.
<http://m.dailykos.com/story/2015/11/17/1448957/-More-good-redistricting-news:-Court-appointed-expert-proposes-plans-favorable-to-Virginia-Democrats>
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Posted inredistricting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>
“NC voting law opponents plan to file preliminary injunction against
photo ID” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77661>
Posted onNovember 18, 2015 10:46 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77661>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Winston Salem-Journal:
<http://m.journalnow.com/news/local/nc-voting-law-opponents-plan-to-file-preliminary-injunction-against/article_fc5d968a-cccc-597c-98fe-5fabf4019a32.html?mode=jqm>
The North Carolina NAACP wants a federal judge to stop the photo-ID
requirement from taking effect during the March 2016 primary elections.
Attorneys for the civil-rights organization filed court papers on
Friday indicating that they planned to seek a preliminary
injunction. The photo-ID requirement was passed along with a number
of other provisions in a sweeping elections law that Gov. Pat
McCrory signed in August 2013. The law is known as the Voter
Information Verification Act.
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Posted inelection administration
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,The Voting Wars
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>,voter id
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=9>
“Judge dismisses Artur Davis lawsuit against state Democratic Party”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77659>
Posted onNovember 18, 2015 10:38 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77659>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
AL.com
<http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2015/11/judge_dismisses_artur_davis_la.html?ath=b04f539e97216a2751b98551e0d85db5#cmpid=nsltr_herostrybutton_single>:
Montgomery County Circuit Judge Truman Hobbs has dismissed a lawsuit
filed by former U.S. Rep. Artur Davis against the state Democratic
Party for keeping Davis off the party’s ballot.
Davis switched to the Republican Party in 2012 but sought to return
this year and run for a seat on the Montgomery County Commission in
next year’s primary.
The party’s bylaws include what is called the Radney Rule, which
prohibits a candidate from running as a Democrat if he did not
support the party’s nominees in the last four years.
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Posted incampaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>,political
parties <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=25>
“Zittrain interviews Lessig: “What I Learned Running for President:
The Ethics of Citizenship'” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77653>
Posted onNovember 18, 2015 10:36 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77653>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Harvard Nov. 23.
<http://ethics.harvard.edu/event/zittrain-interviews-lessig-what-i-learned-running-president-ethics>
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Posted inUncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
“Bernie Sanders benefits from $569,000 in super PAC support from
nurses union” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77655>
Posted onNovember 18, 2015 10:36 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77655>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Sunlight reports.
<http://sunlightfoundation.com/blog/2015/11/18/bernie-sanders-benefits-from-566000-in-super-pac-support-from-nurses-union/>
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,campaigns
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
“Suit accuses Georgia of massive data breach involving 6 million
voters” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77651>
Posted onNovember 18, 2015 9:53 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77651>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Atlanta Journal-Constitution
<http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/suit-accuses-georgia-of-massive-data-breach-involv/npQLz/>:
Two Georgia women have filed a class action lawsuit alleging a
massive data breach by Secretary of State Brian Kemp involving the
Social Security numbers and other private information of more than
six million voters statewide.
The suit, filed Tuesday in Fulton County Superior Court, alleges
Kemp’s office released the information including personal
identifying information to the media, political parties and other
paying subscribers who legally buy voter information from the state.
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Posted inelection administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>
Court Denies GOP Effort to Stop Va Congressional Redistricting
Pending #SCOTUS Review <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77649>
Posted onNovember 18, 2015 8:26 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=77649>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Here is the order
<http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000151-1b67-dd0c-a1ff-1b77211d0002>(viaJosh
Gerstein <https://twitter.com/joshgerstein/status/667015021034143745>).
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Posted inredistricting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>,Supreme Court
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>
--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
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hhttp://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org
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