[EL] SCOTUS order in NC case

Rick Hasen rhasen at law.uci.edu
Fri Feb 19 19:39:59 PST 2016


I'm having doubts about my point about the partisan gerrymandering. I 
guess it depends on how we would count Justice Kennedy's vote in such a 
case.  Probably more likely it would be a 4-4.  Do others see it this way?

On 2/19/16 10:20 PM, Rick Hasen wrote:
>
>
>     Breaking: SCOTUS, Without Noted Dissent, Denies Stay in NC
>     Redistricting Case. What Does It Mean?
>     <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80149>
>
> Posted onFebruary 19, 2016 7:08 pm 
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80149>byRick Hasen 
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> (I knew this would happen while I was (1) on a plane and (2) just 
> finished my ELB blogging for the night.)
>
> The Supreme Court, without noted dissent, hasdenied the stay 
> <https://twitter.com/chrisgeidner/status/700876916623073280/photo/1>in 
> the North Carolina redistricting case. What does this mean?
>
>  1. Before the death of Justice Scalia, I had thought the Court would
>     grant the stay, not because there would be a majority of Justices
>     who would necessarily agree on the merits, but because there were
>     likely at least 5 who would see the problem with changing the
>     rules so close to the election (absentee ballots had already been
>     voted in some races). (This is the “Purcell principle.”  If the
>     Court divided 5-4 before Scalia, it could now be evenly divided
>     without Scalia.  Because the Court isso opaque
>     <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=79942>, especially on its ‘shadow
>     docket,” we don’t know what the vote count is. It could be 4-4, it
>     could be 3-5 or 0-8.  Justice Scalia’s absence might have been
>     decisive here.
>  2. What a mess in North Carolina. The state has passed a new
>     redistricting law which not only changes all of the congressional
>     districts; it also changes the timing of elections and eliminates
>     a runoff primary. It is certainly a partisan gerrymander. What
>     happens if the new plan is challenged as a partisan gerrymander?
>      In Vieth the Court divided 4-1-4. Now with Scalia is is
>     presumably (we’re not sure because of some new Justices) 4
>     Justices that believe such claims raise constitutional problems, 1
>     (Kennedy) who is not sure, and 3 (from 4, now minus Scalia) who
>     believe such claims are non-justiciable. Is there a new majority
>     to police partisan gerrymandering?
>  3. And it is quite possible that there could be a Voting Rights Act
>     violation now. The problem with the last plan was that North
>     Carolina took race /too much/into account. But now perhaps NC did
>     not take race /enough /into account to assure that the districts
>     comply with Section 2 of the Act, which requires the creation of
>     majority opportunity districts under certain circumstances.
>  4. It is quite possible that the 3-judge court then, seeing these
>     potential problems, rejects the maps submitted by the state and
>     orders its own maps. That would take some time, but with the
>     primary now potentially put off until June there is time.
>  5. Now of course virtually none of this would have happened if the
>     Supreme Court had not ruled in /Shelby County /to strike down the
>     trigger for the preclearance provisions of the VRA. North Carolina
>     would have had to submit any new maps to DOJ, which then could
>     have withheld preclearance if they made protected minority voters
>     worse off.
>  6. There’s a lot of confusion on the ground, and I expect that the
>     three-judge court will quickly hold a hearing and figure out what
>     the heck comes next. Wow!
>
> [This post has been updated.]
>
> Share 
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D80149&title=Breaking%3A%20SCOTUS%2C%20Without%20Noted%20Dissent%2C%20Denies%20Stay%20in%20NC%20Redistricting%20Case.%20What%20Does%20It%20Mean%3F&description=>
> Posted inredistricting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>,Supreme 
> Court <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>
>
> -- 
> Rick Hasen
> Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
> UC Irvine School of Law
> 401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
> Irvine, CA 92697-8000
> 949.824.3072 - office
> 949.824.0495 - fax
> rhasen at law.uci.edu
> http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
> http://electionlawblog.org
>
>
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-- 
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org

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