[EL] “Presidential Primary Voter Turnout at 30% with Republican Increases and Democratic Decline”

[Rob Richie]

Good morning, Michael. This woke me up faster even then my cup of coffee!

On behalf of the team that did the report, I certainly apologize for the
typo and incomplete citation in the spreadsheet with the data - which is
now fixed. I'll also make sure the online news release adds a cite too.

The good news is that we do feature (and correctly name!) the US Elections
Project in the main report itself.  See the highlighted hyperlink on page
one and the first sentence of the methodology section on page 15
https://fairvote.app.box.com/v/PrimaryVoterTurnout2008-2016

You do great work on turnout, and we regularly point that out -- we link to
your cite multiple times on the opening page we have on turnout in general
at fairvote.org

Since the report has been brought up, I'll mention:

* The report includes a focus on states that held contested primaries for
president in both 2008 and 2016, and the potential impact of laws that can
affect voter access (early voting, Election Day registration, open
primaries and voter ID), with some useful findings that I hope some people
will read.

* The spreadsheet Michael links to (you can get there from
PopularVote2016.com) should be useful to researchers -- lots of data,
including what the team could find from caucus states and with links to the
sources.

* That sheet was started as a way to track an interesting stat -- the
number of votes cast for presidential candidates after they withdrew. It's
rather astounding, actually. As mentioned in the report "In the Democratic
contest, 110,243 votes were counted for Martin O’Malley who had already
withdrawn from the race. In the Republican contest, 1,768,884 votes for
withdrawn candidates were counted after they had withdrawn from the race,
including 626,441 votes when the nomination contest was still in doubt. In
all, 6% of voters cast ballots for withdrawn candidates. Based on
comparisons of votes cast early and on Election Day for active candidates
and withdrawn candidates in Arizona, the great majority of these voters
would have cast their ballots differently is aware that their preferred
candidate was no longer in the race."
           Rubio won 11.6% of the vote in Arizona, for example, but our
analysis showed that in the state's largest counties, his share of the vote
cast early was more than 20 times greater than his share of Election Day
votes. We've been suggesting that early voters in presidential contests be
able to cast a ranked choice ballot, as UOCAVA voters have been doing
recently in five states' congressional primaries that may go to runoffs,
but people might find the numbers interesting in themselves.  Candidates
who won more votes after withdrawing than when active include Bush,
Christie, Paul, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, O'Malley and Gilmore.

Apologies again for that spreadsheet citation snafu, Michael, and time for
that cup of coffee.
Rob Richie


On Mon, Jul 25, 2016 at 12:57 AM, Michael McDonald <
dr.michael.p.mcdonald at gmail.com> wrote:

> A link to my VEP data used to compute the headline turnout rate can be
> found by clicking through the tabs of the spreadsheet provided by FairVote:
>
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uayHHRfD-4iqrha52NGMvgOmrqQ5LqrX3Oihl109Ea0/edit#gid=1560475088
>
> FairVote has the added to the indignity by getting my website URL wrong.
>
> Let's be clear: The headline would not be possible without me. Few people
> are going to click through to see the source of the data. This sort of
> attribution does not conform with the required attribution I post on my
> website:
>
> http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/faq/permission
>
> The New York Times, Washington Post, and 538 - among others - are generous
> with attribution when they use my data. I work with organizations like the
> Non-Profit Voter Engagement Network to produce similar reports, and they
> also are generous with attribution. Rob Richie (nor anyone else at
> FairVote) never even reached out to me about the report, something just
> common decency dictates.
>
> I expect an apology and prominent placement of attribution on any
> materials FairVote generates from my VEP data.
>
> ============
> Dr. Michael P. McDonald
> Associate Professor, University of Florida
> 352-273-2371
> www.electproject.org
> @ElectProject
>
> _______________________________________________
> Law-election mailing list
> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>



-- 
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