[EL] ELB News and Commentary 3/15/16
Rick Hasen
rhasen at law.uci.edu
Tue Mar 15 07:55:07 PDT 2016
“A Situation in Which Donald Trump Wins the White House”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80900>
Posted onMarch 15, 2016 7:50 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80900>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
John Harwood
<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/us/politics/donald-trump-white-voters.html?ref=politics&_r=0>for
the NYT:
The number of white voters Mr. Trump attracts keeps shrinking as a
share of the electorate, while the number of nonwhite voters he
repels keeps growing, a pattern that helped President Obama retain
the White House.
Yet few political trends continue in a straight line. Some Democrats
have begun to cast a wary eye on Mr. Trump’s unconventional
candidacy. And now a group of political demographers has calculated
how Mr. Trump might pull off a narrow victory in November by
slightly increasing the share of the white vote gained by Mitt
Romney, the Republican nominee in 2012.
The group’s election model assumes continued growth among
African-American, Latino, Asian-American and other nonwhite voters,
as has occurred every four years since the Clinton era. It assumes
that constituencies for both parties turn out at the same rates as
in 2012.
Under those circumstances, the demographers found, an increase of
four percentage points in the proportion of whites backing Mr. Trump
could flip eight states that Mr. Obama carried in 2012. That would
give Mr. Trump a slim edge of 49.7 percent to 48.6 percent in the
popular vote and 315 electoral votes — 45 more than needed to win
the White House.
“It’s a hard thing to pull off,” said Ruy Teixeira, a co-authorof
the analysis
<https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/progressive-movement/news/2016/02/25/131668/election-oracle/>who
works at the left-leaning Center for American Progress. “But I
certainly wouldn’t rule it out.”
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Posted incampaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
Lyle Denniston Previews Va Racial Gerrymandering Case, Argued Next
Week at #SCOTUS <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80898>
Posted onMarch 15, 2016 7:41 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80898>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Here, at SCOTUSBlog
<http://www.scotusblog.com/2016/03/argument-preview-once-again-the-issue-is-race-2/>.
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Posted inredistricting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>,Supreme Court
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>
“Analysis: Scant Evidence for Abbott’s ‘Rampant’ Voter Fraud”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80896>
Posted onMarch 15, 2016 7:37 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80896>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Ross
Ramsey<http://www.texastribune.org/2016/03/15/analysis-scant-evidence-abbott-rampant-voter-fraud/>for
the Texas Tribune.
Yup <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80882>.
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Posted inelection administration
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,fraudulent fraud squad
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=8>,The Voting Wars
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>
“Division among Koch donors over failure to stop Donald Trump”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80894>
Posted onMarch 15, 2016 7:36 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80894>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
The Guardian reports.
<http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/15/koch-brothers-republican-donors-disappointed-donald-trump-attacks?CMP=share_btn_tw>
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
“Defining the Press Exemption from Campaign Finance Restrictions”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80892>
Posted onMarch 15, 2016 7:30 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80892>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
New /Harvard Law Review/student note.
<http://harvardlawreview.org/2016/03/defining-the-press-exemption-from-campaign-finance-restrictions/?platform=hootsuite>
I address this question in detail in a chapter ofPlutocrats United.
<http://www.amazon.com/Plutocrats-United-Campaign-Distortion-Elections/dp/0300212453/>
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,Supreme
Court <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>
“Voters could get $150 to give to candidates under proposed
initiative” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80890>
Posted onMarch 15, 2016 7:26 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80890>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Seattle Times
<http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/voters-could-get-150-to-give-to-candidates-under-proposed-initiative/>:
Washington voters would be allowed to make $150 in taxpayer-funded
donations to legislative candidates every two years under a state
initiative proposal preparing to launch this week.
Backers of the measure, aimed at the November 2016 ballot, say it
would curb the influence of moneyed special interests by creating
the new public campaign-financing system, modeled in part on a
“Democracy vouchers” initiativeapproved
<http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/democracy-vouchers/>by
Seattle voters last year.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
“Inside Cruz’s state-by-state plan to defeat Trump”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80888>
Posted onMarch 15, 2016 7:24 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80888>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Shane Goldmacher
<http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/inside-cruzs-state-by-state-plan-to-defeat-trump-220702#ixzz42x4dRkrg>for
Politico:
It sounds like a nightmare for Donald Trump’s opponents: The
billionaire sweeps Ohio and Florida on Tuesday and storms ahead with
more than half the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the Republican
nomination.
But for Ted Cruz, it would be a dream — if it forces Marco Rubio and
John Kasich to quit — that delivers the two-man contest he’s been
wanting for months.
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Posted incampaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>,primaries
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=32>
“Trump’s Fundraising for Others Left Deep Roots”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80886>
Posted onMarch 15, 2016 7:20 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80886>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Bloomberg
<http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-15/trump-s-fundraising-for-others-left-deep-roots?cmpid=BBD031516_POL>:
He might be self-financing his campaign, but Donald Trump is no
stranger to political fundraising.
His bundling skills, honed over decades, will be put to use five
days after the March 15 primary in Florida, where the billionaire
developer will deliver the keynote speech to a sold-out event for
the Republican Party of Palm Beach County. The event, which
organizers expect will bring in more than $300,000, has been held
for the past four years at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club.
Trump hasn’t hidden the fact that he has contributed widely to
campaigns in the past, to Republicans and Democrats alike, and even
to candidates he’s now had to battle for the nomination. He’s
recently been coy, however, about whether he’ll raise money for the
general election should he win the party’s nomination, saying he has
yet to make a decision. His experience not just giving but raising
money for others suggests he has the connections to amass a
formidable war chest.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,campaigns
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
“Why Do We Still Have Presidential Caucuses — And How Can We Get Rid
Of Them?” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80884>
Posted onMarch 15, 2016 7:18 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80884>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Important Josh Israel
report<http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/03/15/3758550/why-do-we-have-caucuses/>from
Think Progress.
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Posted inelection administration
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,political parties
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=25>,primaries
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=32>
“Abbott Rejects Obama Criticism Of Texas Voter Turnout Efforts”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80882>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 7:47 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80882>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Texas Tribune
<http://keranews.org/post/abbott-rejects-obama-criticism-texas-voter-turnout-efforts>:
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott repudiated President Barack Obama’s recent
criticisms of the state’s voter laws on Monday, arguing that Texas
must remain vigilant against voter fraud.
“What I find is that leaders of the other party are against efforts
to crack down on voter fraud,” Abbott said. “The fact is that voter
fraud is rampant. In Texas, unlike some other states and unlike some
other leaders, we are committed to cracking down on voter fraud.”
No credible analyst or scholar believes voter fraud is rampant.
There are pockets of problems, including in Texas, involving absentee
voter fraud. But voter id at the polls does not solve the problem of the
sale of absentee ballots.
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Posted inelection administration
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,The Voting Wars
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>
“The 13 minutes that could make — or break — Kasich’s campaign”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80880>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 7:43 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80880>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
CNN
<http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/14/politics/john-kasich-gop-primary-pennsylvania-ballot/>:
Thirteen minutes.
That amount of time may be the saving grace forJohn Kasich
<http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/candidates/john-kasich?linkId=21624881>‘s
presidential campaign strategy, one that relies heavily on the state
of Pennsylvania — a state where Kasich’s lawyers are battling to
keep him on the ballot.
Central to that battle is a missed deadline by a Marco Rubio
supporter in the state who objected to hundreds of signatures filed
by Kasich’s campaign to get onto the state’s ballot. The deadline
was missed, according to Kasich’s legal team, by all of 13 minutes,
making the petition void.
Yet even seizing on that technicality hasn’t led to a simple
resolution of the issue. As both sides prepare to file new briefs in
the case Monday, no less than Kasich’s entire post-Ohio primary
strategy is at stake.
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Posted inballot access <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=46>,campaigns
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
“North Carolina’s Voter ID Law Could Block 218,000 Registered Voters
From the Polls” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80878>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 6:28 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80878>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Ari Berman writes
<http://www.thenation.com/article/north-carolinas-voter-id-law-could-block-218000-registered-voters-from-the-polls/>for
the Nation.
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Posted inUncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
“As Bondi endorses Trump, past political contribution comes under
fire” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80876>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 5:21 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80876>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Politico
<http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/florida/2016/03/8593832/bondi-endorses-trump-past-political-contribution-comes-under-fire>:
Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi made a surprise endorsement of
Donald Trump on Monday, only to run into criticism over the way her
office examined fraud claims against Trump University after the New
York billionaire contributed money to her campaign.
At issue is a $25,000 campaign contribution from the Donald J. Trump
Foundation to a Bondi-controlled political committee in 2013. It
came just days after she said her office was reviewing complaints
related to Trump’s school.
Bondi’s office later determined it did not need to take any action
against Trump University because of an ongoing lawsuit already filed
in New York. That decision is getting renewed attention after Bondi
endorsed Trump at a Tampa rally one day before the Florida primary.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,conflict
of interest laws <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=20>
“Fixing the Lists: Data Accuracy and Voting in the 2016 Election”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80874>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 5:18 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80874>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Announcement via email:
*/F//ixing the Lists: Data Accuracy and Voting in the 2016 Election/*
The Election Law Program at William & Mary Law School is pleased to
announce the Tenth Annual Election Law Symposium to take place this
Thursday, March 17, 2016 in Room 120 at William & Mary Law School in
Williamsburg, Virginia from 3:30-5:00, reception to follow.
Featuring:
*David Becker*, Director of Election Initiatives, Pew Charitable Trusts
*Allegra Chapman*, Director of Voting and Elections, Common Cause
*Elizabeth Howard*, Deputy Commissioner, Virginia Department of
Elections (moderator)
*Commissioner Matthew Masterson,*Commissioner, Election Assistance
Commission;
*Secretary Donald Palmer*, Senior Adviser on Election
Administration, Bipartisan Policy Center; former chief elections
administrator in Virginia and Florida
This event is free and open to the public. The event flyer is
availablehere
<http://law.wm.edu/academics/intellectuallife/researchcenters/electionlaw/2016_symposium_flyer/index.php>.
Please direct any questions to elect at wm.edu.
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Posted inelection administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>
“Trump, Sanders deflate super PACS in unpredictable 2016 race”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80870>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 2:24 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80870>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Julie
Bykowicz<http://bigstory.ap.org/urn:publicid:ap.org:288342f7ae82417cae674761f507a801>for
AP:
Recent polls show Trump well ahead of home-state senator Marco Rubio
in Florida, one of five states holding presidential primaries on
Tuesday. Indeed, the group spending the most to take out Trump in
Florida is Rubio’s super PAC, Conservative Solutions.
Across the country, Rubio has benefited from $64 million in spending
by Conservative Solutions and a companion nonprofit that doesn’t
disclose its donors. He’s won just three of 27 primary contests.
Rubio’s failure to launch follows that of fellow Republican
presidential candidates Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Rick Perry, who
also couldn’t leverage millions of dollars in super PAC help. Carly
Fiorina ran her entire presidential bid on the back of a $12 million
super PAC, but she, too, sputtered out.
Such efforts account for the bulk of the nearly $300 million in
outside spending that the AP tallied by reviewing Federal Election
Commission reports and ad buys tracked by Kantar Media’s Campaign
Media Analysis Group.
That’s with almost eight months to go. In the entire 2008 election,
outside groups spent less than $40 million on federal politics.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,campaigns
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
“The state of state parties—and how strengthening them can improve
our politics” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80868>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 2:11 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80868>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
New Brookings
report<http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2016/03/08-state-parties-la-raja-rauch>by
LaRaja, Rauch and VanSant Stoddard.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
“Analysis: How might the ‘Citizens United’ decision be undone?”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80866>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 1:58 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80866>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
CPI reports.
<http://www.publicintegrity.org/2016/03/14/19420/analysis-how-might-citizens-united-decision-be-undone>
Share
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Posted inUncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
New NVRA Complaint Filed in Texas <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80864>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 1:50 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80864>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Release <http://www.texascivilrightsproject.org/>:
In a lawsuit filed this morning in a San Antonio federal court, the
Texas Civil Rights Project (TCRP) challenged voter registration
procedures at the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS). Asthe
Complaint explains
<http://www.texascivilrightsproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NVRA-Complaint-W.D.-Tex.-Case-No.-16-cv-00257.pdf>,
Texas is violating the U.S. Constitution and federal law by refusing
to register eligible voters who submit changes through the DPS
website. TCRP and its co-counsel Waters & Kraus, LLP represent
several Texas voters who have been disenfranchised by the state’s
unlawful practices.
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Posted inNVRA (motor voter) <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=33>
“Grasping for Cover: Making Excuses for the FEC”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80862>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 1:46 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80862>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Larry Noble responds
<http://www.campaignlegalcenter.org/news/blog/grasping-cover-making-excuses-fec>to
Bob Bauer.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,federal
election commission <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=24>
“Take To The Streets for A New Progressive Supreme Court Justice”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80859>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 9:25 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80859>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
I have writtenthis new piece
<http://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/take-streets-progressive-supreme-court-justice>for
TPM. It begins:
Back in September, well before the death of Supreme Court Justice
Antonin Scalia, I wrote a TPM Café article in which I called the
future composition of the Supreme Court the most important civil
rights cause of our time. “It is more important than racial justice,
marriage equality, voting rights, money in politics, abortion
rights, gun rights, or managing climate change. It matters more
because the ability to move forward in these other civil rights
struggles depends first and foremost upon control of the Court.”
When I wrote those words, I feared that those on the left would not
see these stakes, but now that Justice Scalia’s death has brought
them into sharp relief, the next question is: What to do next? And
the answer is the same as in all struggles for civil rights: popular
protests and peaceful demonstrations.
Contrary to the hopes of some, there is no court that’s going to
force the Senate to hold a hearing or a vote for a Supreme Court
nominee of President Obama. Let the pundits and scholars debate the
historical precedents over how nominees have been treated in the
past, and whether Democrats or Republicans are more to blame over
the poor treatment of judicial nominees in the Senate. In the end,
as I argued last month, whether or not President Obama is successful
in getting a nomination turns on political hardball not precedent.
It will be only pressure on the Senate, and particularly on
Republican Senators up for reelection in blue states, that can get
the Republican Senate to move on an Obama presidential nomination….
That means demonstrations and rallies not only in Washington, D.C.,
but in front of the offices and at the campaign events ofthe most
vulnerable Republican Senators
<http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/234983-2016s-top-10-most-vulnerable-senators>:
Mark Kirk (R-IL), Ron Johnson (R-WI), Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), Pat
Toomey (R-PA) and Rob Portman (R-OH). Political ads on television
and radio about the nomination may help, but they stand to be lost
in the general election chatter. Showing that thousands of people
care about this issue and are willing to go to the streets will show
enthusiasm over this issue and Senators will pay a political price
for denying even a hearing to the nominee of a president who was
elected twice by the American people. When Senate majority leader
Mitch McConnell feels that he could lose is Senate majority over
this issue, we will become more likely to budge on it.
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Posted inSupreme Court <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>
“People of American Samoa Aren’t Fully American”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80857>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 9:22 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80857>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Noah Feldman
<http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-13/people-of-american-samoa-aren-t-fully-american>:
The circumstances of the birth of Republican presidential candidate
Ted Cruz putconstitutional citizenship
<http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-01-13/ted-cruz-has-a-real-birther-problem>into
the headlines. Also in the news: A federal judge in Puerto Ricoruled
last week
<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2016-03-10/bloomberg-law-judge-in-pr-goes-against-supreme-court-audio>that
the U.S. Supreme Court’s gay-marriage decision doesn’t follow the
flag to the island. What would happen if you mashed the two issues
together, mixing birthright citizenship with the Constitution’s
applicability to U.S. territories?
The answer to this otherwise random-seeming question is in fact
before the Supreme Court right now. At issue is whether it’s
constitutional for Congress to deny birthright citizenship to people
born in American Samoa, which has been a U.S. territory since 1900.
In June, a conservative panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the
D.C. Circuitupheld
<http://www.leagle.com/decision/In%20FCO%2020150605138/TUAUA%20v.%20U.S.>the
congressional rule, which uniquely applies to American Samoa and no
other U.S. territory. Now the Samoan-born plaintiffs are asking the
Supreme Court to review the D.C. Circuit’s decision — and asking
Congress to change the rules.
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Posted invoting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=31>
“Settlement Agreement on NVRA Implementation in Nevada”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80855>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 9:21 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80855>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Read
<http://www.demos.org/publication/settlement-agreement-nvra-implementation-nevada>all
about it.
Share
<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D80855&title=%26%238220%3BSettlement%20Agreement%20on%20NVRA%20Implementation%20in%20Nevada%26%238221%3B&description=>
Posted inelection administration
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,NVRA (motor voter)
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=33>
“More Than 1.5 Million Florida Voters Will Be Missing From Tuesday’s
Primary” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80853>
Posted onMarch 14, 2016 9:19 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=80853>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Think Progress
<http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/03/14/3758332/florida-felon-disenfranchisement/>:
Now, as the presidential primary descends upon his state, Meade is
gathering signatures for a ballot initiative to amend the state
constitution to allow Floridians convicted for non-violent crimes to
automatically have their voting rights restored after completing
their prison sentence, parole and probation. He and the other
members of the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition are more than
two-thirds of the way toward gathering the roughly 68,000 signatures
needed to force the state Supreme Court to consider putting the
measure to Florida voters in 2018.
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Posted infelon voting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=66>
--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
hhttp://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org
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