[EL] ELB Election Day 6 pm update

Tue Nov 8 18:05:42 PST 2016

If It is Close in Florida or Ohio, Democrats Can Expect To Pick Up Significant Votes After Election Day, But Expect Litigation<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89047>
Posted on November 8, 2016 6:00 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89047> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Ned Foley<https://twitter.com/Nedfoley/status/796165696183029761>: “With FL close, remember this: in 2012 Obama gained 27,281 votes after Election Night; in 08, he gained 42,277; p535: http://tinyurl.com/p45xd47 <https://t.co/wzKkiOC8Gf> ”
From the conclusion of Ned’s law review article,  The Big Blue Shift<http://tinyurl.com/p45xd47> (my emphasis):
The question for the future is whether, in close presidential elections, there will be a significant chance of the lead changing hands in several states, as in 1960—or instead whether the leads will stay with the same candidate throughout the canvass despite the inevitable adjustments in the vote totals during that period, as occurred in 1976 and 2004, when the presidential elections were also close. The answer depends on just how large the big blue shift in the canvass has become, and on the extent to which the extremely large gains that Obama made during the canvass in battleground states is a function of factors other than his overall national popularity. As I have indicated, further insight on just what is causing the observable big blue shift must await more sophisticated statistical analysis.
Meanwhile, it is worth considering whether it would be possible for the media and the public to become comfortable with a new normal in presidential elections where there is a significant chance of leads in states changing from one candidate to another after Election Night and during the canvass. Perhaps it will be no big deal if, for example, on the morning after Election Night the Democrat is behind in California and Washington, by several hundred thousand votes in each, but everyone expects the Democrat easily to overcome this deficit during the canvass through the counting of as-yet-unprocessed absentee ballots. Indeed, the media might be prepared to call these states for the Democrat even as the official (albeit incomplete and uncertified) returns have the Republican in the lead. Moreover, in this situation there might be no threat of litigation because everyone would know that the anticipated flip in the lead is just a normal part of the vote-counting process with so many absentee ballots still uncounted. Even though the presidential election would technically remain unsettled in overtime, in a sense this situation is no different from any other: The election is always officially unsettled prior to certification, and if both candidates treat it as a foregone conclusion that the Democrat has won these states, then the race there will feel over just as much as any other called by the networks on Election Night.
But I surmise that solidly blue states like California and Washington are very different in this respect from battleground states like Ohio, Florida, and Colorado. If the Republican is ahead in these states by tens of thousands of votes on the morning after Election Day, the networks will not be so quick to call the states for the Democrat, even though it is anticipated that the Democrat is likely capable of making up most, if not all, of those deficits. Moreover, the Republican candidate will not quickly concede those states to the Democrat, and if these states are essential to winning an Electoral College majority, the threat of litigation will be very much in the air. Indeed, by the morning after Election Night, the litigation over as-yet-uncounted ballots in these crucial states might already be underway. When the election going into overtime is unsettled in battleground states, unlike in solidly blue or red states, overtime means litigation rather than waiting for the completion of the canvass in a harmonious manner.
Therefore, battleground states need to prepare themselves for the possibility that Election Night might come and go with the candidates realizing that it is very much worth fighting for votes during the canvass. The magnitude of this risk is the question addressed through the examination of the data presented here. At this point, it remains unclear whether the margin of litigation for battleground states is closer to a 25,000-vote deficit for the Democrat, which is approximately the level of the 2004 election, or instead closer to 75,000-vote deficit, which is more like what we saw in 2008 and 2012. Further statistical analysis of the data may help refine the assessment of this risk. But in the absence of this additional information, it would be prudent for battleground states to consider changes to their voting rules and procedures that might help to reduce this risk. These states would also do well to specifically scrutinize their rules and procedures for the canvassing and recounting of ballots—their “overtime” processes, so to speak—to evaluate the extent to which they are ready to handle the intense pressure that will be put on these overtime processes if indeed one of their elections falls within what may well be a rapidly increasing margin of litigation.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89047&title=If%20It%20is%20Close%20in%20Florida%20or%20Ohio%2C%20Democrats%20Can%20Expect%20To%20Pick%20Up%20Significant%20Votes%20After%20Election%20Day%2C%20But%20Expect%20Litigation>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

“PollWatch: In Wissinoming, GOP poll watcher says 2 votes logged before polls opened”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89045>
Posted on November 8, 2016 4:44 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89045> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Philly Inquirer reports.<http://www.philly.com/philly/news/GOP-poll-watcher-says-votes-recorded-before.html> I’ve been hearing a lot of GOP complaints about irregularities in Philadelphia. It is hard to evaluate at this point how widespread and serious these problems were. I’m following.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89045&title=%E2%80%9CPollWatch%3A%20In%20Wissinoming%2C%20GOP%20poll%20watcher%20says%202%20votes%20logged%20before%20polls%20opened%E2%80%9D>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

Dover, NH Ordered to Extend Polling Hours after Sending Email Telling Voters Wrong Polling Times<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89043>
Posted on November 8, 2016 4:24 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89043> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Order.<https://t.co/nIJOq5gdcp>
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89043&title=Dover%2C%20NH%20Ordered%20to%20Extend%20Polling%20Hours%20after%20Sending%20Email%20Telling%20Voters%20Wrong%20Polling%20Times>
Posted in Uncategorized<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“This 99-Year-Old Man Rode His Bike to the Polls. Wisconsin Republicans Turned Him Away.”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89041>
Posted on November 8, 2016 3:48 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89041> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Ari Berman<https://www.thenation.com/article/this-99-year-old-man-rode-his-bike-to-the-polls-republicans-turned-him-away/> dispatch from Wisconsin.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89041&title=%E2%80%9CThis%2099-Year-Old%20Man%20Rode%20His%20Bike%20to%20the%20Polls.%20Wisconsin%20Republicans%20Turned%20Him%20Away.%E2%80%9D>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

Florida! “2 precinct clerks fired at Herb Skolnick Center in Pompano Beach after disturbance”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89039>
Posted on November 8, 2016 3:08 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89039> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
See here. <http://www.local10.com/news/elections/2-precinct-clerks-fired-at-herb-skolnick-center-in-pompano-beach-after-disturbance>
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89039&title=Florida!%20%E2%80%9C2%20precinct%20clerks%20fired%20at%20Herb%20Skolnick%20Center%20in%20Pompano%20Beach%20after%20disturbance%E2%80%9D>
Posted in chicanery<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

“Judges, keep the polls open on Election Day”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89037>
Posted on November 8, 2016 3:01 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89037> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Josh Douglas<http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/08/opinions/court-order-polls-open-douglas/index.html> for CNN.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89037&title=%E2%80%9CJudges%2C%20keep%20the%20polls%20open%20on%20Election%20Day%E2%80%9D>
Posted in Uncategorized<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“Computer glitch could extend Durham voting hours”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89035>
Posted on November 8, 2016 2:40 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89035> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
News and Observer:<http://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/counties/durham-county/article113225473.html>
Software glitches in Durham have prompted the county Board of Elections to ask the state for permission to extend voting hours by 90 minutes Tuesday evening.
Durham County Board of Elections Chair Bill Brian said the county took its electronic voting system off-line after problems popped up at several precincts. Poll workers were unable to look up voter registration information digitally, so they turned to paper records. That requires the use of paper forms, and when some precincts ran out of the forms, voting ground to a halt.
“It appeared that some of the data from prior elections had not been cleared out, and people were being improperly listed as having already voted,” Brian said. “They didn’t have the right software, it appears. Why that happened, we don’t know yet.”
He said it was the county’s first year to use electronic voting books.
Voting was halted for an hour and a half at the precinct at Bethesda Ruritan Club on South Miami Blvd.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89035&title=%E2%80%9CComputer%20glitch%20could%20extend%20Durham%20voting%20hours%E2%80%9D>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>
http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org<http://electionlawblog.org/>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://webshare.law.ucla.edu/Listservs/law-election/attachments/20161109/c15c5974/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.png
Type: image/png
Size: 2021 bytes
Desc: image001.png
URL: <http://webshare.law.ucla.edu/Listservs/law-election/attachments/20161109/c15c5974/attachment.png>