[EL] ELB News and Commentary 11/29/16

[Daniel Tokaji]

Recount Roundup <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89571>
Posted on November 29, 2016 8:22 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89571> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

ABC
<http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-recount-efforts/story?id=43820582>:
“Everything You Need to Know About the Election Recount Efforts”

CNN
<http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/28/politics/jill-stein-recount-2016-election/>:
“Green Party presidential nominee Jill Stein defended her recount efforts
Monday, even though she admits there is no evidence of fraud at the ballot
box.”

Detroit Free Press
<http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/28/michigan-presidential-recount-heres-what-we-know/94548274/>:
“Michigan presidential recount? Here’s what we know”

The Hill
<http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/307787-annoyed-dems-dismiss-recount-as-waste-of-time>:
“Annoyed Dems Dismiss Recount as a ‘Waste of Time'”

New Yorker
<http://www.newyorker.com/news/amy-davidson/another-call-for-a-recount>:
“The Recount Road to Nowhere”

NPR
<http://www.npr.org/2016/11/28/503624804/trump-officially-wins-michigan-as-possible-recount-looms>:
“Trump Officially Wins Michigan As Possible Recount Looms”

Politico
<http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-state-recounts-reaction-jill-stein-231897>:
“Clinton team shrugs off recount effort”

Salon
<http://www.salon.com/2016/11/29/jill-stein-sues-wisconsin-to-go-through-with-vote-recount/>:
“Jill Stein sues Wisconsin to go through with vote recount”

Slate
<http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/28/jill_stein_requests_recount_in_pennsylvania_but_has_no_evidence_of_fraud.html>:
“Jill Stein Requests Recount in Pennsylvania but Has No Evidence of Fraud”

WaPo
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/11/28/jill-stein-files-for-recount-in-pennsylvania-as-trump-team-keeps-up-talk-of-voter-fraud-with-no-evidence/>:
“Jill Stein tries to force recount in Pennsylvania”

WSJ
<http://nation.foxnews.com/2016/11/28/recount-hail-mary-left-may-get-unexpected-lesson-electoral-federalism>:
“The Recount Hail Mary”
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Posted in recounts <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=50> Edit
<http://electionlawblog.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=89571&action=edit>
“GOP Challenger Wants Recount in Minnesota US House Election”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89569>
Posted on November 29, 2016 8:01 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89569> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

AP reports
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/gop-challenger-wants-recount-in-minnesota-us-house-election/2016/11/28/098f2310-b5dc-11e6-939c-91749443c5e5_story.html>
that Stewart Mills will seek a recount of votes cast in the northern
Minnesota district he lost to U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan by 2,009 votes out of
356,971 cast.
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Posted in recounts <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=50> Edit
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“Pants on Fire” for Trump’s Fraud Tweet
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89567>
Posted on November 29, 2016 7:58 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89567> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

PolitiFact
<http://www.politifact.com/california/statements/2016/nov/28/donald-trump/pants-fire-trumps-claim-about-california-voter-fra/>.
No surprise again <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89538>.
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Posted in fraudulent fraud squad <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=8> Edit
<http://electionlawblog.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=89567&action=edit>
“Congress Is Duty-Bound to Probe Trump’s Finances”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89563>
Posted on November 29, 2016 7:56 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89563> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

The Atlantic
<http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/congress-is-duty-bound-to-probe-trumps-finances/508826/>
.
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Posted in conflict of interest laws <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=20>
Edit <http://electionlawblog.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=89563&action=edit>
The New Political Realism: Resisting Inappropriate Transparency Demands
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89556>
Posted on November 29, 2016 7:55 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89556> by
*Richard Pildes* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=7>

This piece
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/28/this-is-why-the-push-for-transparency-may-have-cost-clinton-the-election/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-politics%3Ahomepage%2Fcard>,
from a few days ago in the Washington Post, puts FBI Director Jim Comey’s
real-time updates of the Clinton investigation into a broader framework
involving the ever-increasing demands for greater governmental
transparency.  Leaving aside the provocative title of the piece, the essay
raises the right questions about the tradeoffs between transparency and
other democratic values:

But the underlying story is not just about Comey or the FBI. Instead, it is
about the perverse consequences of government transparency, and the fraught
relationship between national security and the demands of democracy. . .

The public may now expect to have access to current intelligence and
ongoing legal assessments. The desire for openness from government
officials is understandable, of course. Transparency is the only way we can
hold executive agencies accountable. However, the Comey saga is a stark and
troubling reminder that transparency has a price. The more law enforcement
and intelligence officials reveal about their ongoing activities, the
greater the risk of unintended consequences….

Secrecy and democracy coexist uneasily. Too much secrecy can lead to
inefficiency and government abuse. The events of the last month, however,
highlight how transparency can lead to politicization and government
dysfunction.

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Posted in Uncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
“Steve Bannon Once Suggested Only Property Owners Should Vote. What Would
That Look Like?” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89559>
Posted on November 29, 2016 7:52 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89559> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

The Fix.
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/28/steve-bannon-once-suggested-only-property-owners-should-vote-what-would-that-look-like/>
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Posted in voting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=31> Edit
<http://electionlawblog.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=89559&action=edit>
“McGahn, Trump’s Counsel Pick, Fought Regulation as FEC Member”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89557>
Posted on November 29, 2016 7:47 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89557> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Bloomberg BNA
<http://news.bna.com/mpdm/MPDMWB/split_display.adp?fedfid=101069082&vname=mpebulallissues&fn=101069082&jd=101069082>
($): “President-elect Donald Trump, battling criticism about potential
conflicts of interest even before he takes office, is set to be represented
in the White House by a tough Washington lawyer whose fight against strict
regulation of politics was a hallmark of his five-year tenure on the
Federal Election Commission.”
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, federal
election commission <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=24> Edit
<http://electionlawblog.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=89557&action=edit>
“How the Ugly 2016 Presidential Election Could Change the Way We Vote in
Future Ones” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89553>
Posted on November 29, 2016 7:13 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89553> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

The Fix
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/28/how-the-ugly-2016-presidential-election-could-change-the-way-we-vote-in-future-ones/>
on
ranked-choice voting, automatic registration, and other possible reforms.
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Posted in alternative voting systems
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=63>, voter
registration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=37> Edit
<http://electionlawblog.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=89553&action=edit>
“As Push for Recount Advances, Clinton Supporters Hope and Trump Vents”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89551>
Posted on November 28, 2016 6:53 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89551> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

NYT.
<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/28/us/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-recount.html?ref=politics&_r=0>
Both to no avail, I would add.
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Posted in recounts <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=50> Edit
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“Why I Support An Election Audit, Even Though It’s Unlikely To Change The
Outcome” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89549>
Posted on November 28, 2016 6:48 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89549> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Silver at 538
<http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-i-support-an-election-audit-even-though-its-unlikely-to-change-the-outcome/>:
“An audit very probably won’t detect a conspiracy, but it will reveal
information about our voting systems… [O]ver the next four years, we’re all
going to have to get used to an environment in which nuggets of insight
come buried in mounds of misinformation. An audit is as good a place as any
to start.”
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Posted in recounts <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=50> Edit
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Jesse Richman on Trump’s Fraud Claim <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89545>
Posted on November 28, 2016 4:31 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89545> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

One of the co-authors of a widely cited paper on non-citizen voting writes
<https://fs.wp.odu.edu/jrichman/2016/11/28/is-it-plausible-that-non-citizen-votes-account-for-the-entire-margin-of-trumps-popular-vote-loss-to-clinton/>
:

*Donald Trump recently suggested that his deficit in the popular vote to
Clinton might be due entirely to illegal votes cast, for instance by
non-citizens.  Is this claim plausible?  The claim Trump is making is not
supported by our data.*

*Here I run some extrapolations based upon the estimates for other
elections from my coauthored 2014 paper on non-citizen voting.  You can
access that paper on the journal website here
<http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379414000973> and
Judicial Watch has also posted a PDF
<http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Do-Non-Citizens-Vote-in-US-Elections-Richman-et-al.pdf>.
The basic assumptions on which the extrapolation is based are that 6.4
percent of non-citizens voted, and that of the non-citizens who voted,
81.8 percent voted for Clinton and 17.5 percent voted for Trump.  These
were numbers from our study for the 2008 campaign.  Obviously to the extent
that critics
<http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379415001420> of my
study are correct the first number (percentage of non-citizens who voted)
may be too high, and the second number (percentage who voted for Clinton)
may be too low….*

*Is it plausible that non-citizen votes added to Clinton’s margin.  Yes.
Is it plausible that non-citizen votes account for the entire nation-wide
popular vote margin held by Clinton? Not at all.*

*If the percentage of non-citizens voting for Clinton is held constant,
roughly 18.5 percent of non-citizens would have had to vote for their votes
to have made up the entire Clinton popular vote margin.  I don’t think that
this rate is at all plausible.   Even if we assume that 90 percent voted
for Clinton and only 10 percent for Trump, a more than fourteen percent
turnout would be necessary to account for Clinton’s popular vote margin.
This is much higher than the estimates we offered.  Again, it seems too
high to be plausible.*


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Stein Campaign’s Lawyer Tells Michigan Board to Expect Recount Petition
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89540>
Posted on November 28, 2016 12:08 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89540> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Mark Brewer has told the Board of State Canvassers that the recount
petition will be filed on Wednesday according to the AP
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-latest-texas-elector-to-resign-rather-than-vote-trump/2016/11/28/ba40af4a-b58b-11e6-939c-91749443c5e5_story.html>
.
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“Trump Spokesman Fails to Back up Trump Claim of Voter Fraud”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89538>
Posted on November 28, 2016 12:04 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89538> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Not a surprise
<http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/trump-voter-fraud-jason-miller-231883>
.
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Posted in fraudulent fraud squad <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=8> Edit
<http://electionlawblog.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=89538&action=edit>
“Jill Stein Presidential Recount Effort Prompts Money Gusher”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89536>
Posted on November 28, 2016 12:02 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89536> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

AP
<http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/11/28/us/politics/ap-us-stein-recount.html>:
“…Stein’s recount drive had already netted $6.3 million by Monday,
according to her campaign website.  That’s close to the $7 million she
posted as a goal and millions more than the roughly $3.5 million she raised
during her entire presidential bid.”
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, recounts
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=50> Edit
<http://electionlawblog.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=89536&action=edit>
“Wisconsin Rejects Doing Recount by Hand; Stein to Sue”
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89534>
Posted on November 28, 2016 11:31 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89534> by
*Dan Tokaji* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=5>

Journal Sentinel reports.
<http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/28/elections-staff-layout-recount-timeline/94539210/>
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Posted in recounts <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=50>
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