[EL] Curious if a single person on this list would back up President-Elect Trump on 2 assertions today
Lorraine Minnite
lminnite at gmail.com
Wed Nov 30 21:26:47 PST 2016
Just to be clear: Are you suggesting that it is plausible that 834,318
non-citizens voted for Hillary Clinton?
Lori Minnite
On 11/28/16 3:50 PM, Richman, Jesse T. wrote:
>
> Since some in Trump’s team seem to be attempting to use my coauthored
> 2014 study on non-citizen voting to support their claims, I think it’s
> worth walking through the extrapolation from those results to show how
> they do not support the argument that Trump would have won the popular
> vote were it not for illegal votes.
>
> Donald Trump recently suggested that his deficit in the popular vote
> to Clinton might be due entirely to illegal votes cast, for instance
> by non-citizens. Is this claim plausible? The claim Trump is making
> is not supported by our data.
>
> Here I run some extrapolations based upon the estimates for other
> elections from my coauthored 2014 paper on non-citizen voting. You
> can access that paper on the journal website here
> <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379414000973> and
> Judicial Watch has also posted a PDF
> <http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Do-Non-Citizens-Vote-in-US-Elections-Richman-et-al.pdf>.
> The basic assumptions on which the extrapolation is based are that
> 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted, and that of the non-citizens who
> voted, 81.8 percent voted for Clinton and 17.5 percent voted for
> Trump. These were numbers from our study for the 2008 campaign.
> Obviously to the extent that critics
> <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379415001420> of
> my study are correct the first number (percentage of non-citizens who
> voted) may be too high, and the second number (percentage who voted
> for Clinton) may be too low.
>
> The count of the popular vote is still in flux as many states have yet
> to certify official final tallies. Here I used this unofficial tally
> <https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?sle=true#gid=19> linked
> by Real Clear Politics. As of this writing Trump is 2,235,663 votes
> behind Clinton in the popular vote.
>
> If the assumptions stated above concerning non-citizen turnout are
> correct, could non-citizen turnout account for Clinton's popular vote
> margin? *There is no way it could have.* 6.4 percent turnout among
> the roughly 20.3 million non-citizen adults in the US would add only
> 834,318 votes to Clinton's popular vote margin. *This is little more
> than a third of the total margin.*
>
> Is it plausible that non-citizen votes added to Clinton's margin.
> Yes. *Is it plausible that non-citizen votes account for the entire
> nation-wide popular vote margin held by Clinton? Not at all.*
>
> If the percentage of non-citizens voting for Clinton is held constant,
> roughly 18.5 percent of non-citizens would have had to vote for their
> votes to have made up the entire Clinton popular vote margin. I don't
> think that this rate is at all plausible. Even if we assume that 90
> percent voted for Clinton and only 10 percent for Trump, a more than
> fourteen percent turnout would be necessary to account for Clinton's
> popular vote margin. This is much higher than the estimates we
> offered. Again, it seems too high to be plausible.
>
> Jesse Richman
>
> Jesse Richman
>
> Associate Professor of Political Science and International Studies
>
> Department of Political Science and Geography
>
> Old Dominion University
>
> BAL 7028
>
> Norfolk VA 23529
>
> 757-683-3853
>
> http://fs.wp.odu.edu/jrichman/
>
> *From:*law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
> [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf Of
> *Jon Sherman
> *Sent:* Monday, November 28, 2016 11:31 AM
> *To:* Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org>
> *Cc:* law-election at UCI.EDU
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Curious if a single person on this list would back
> up President-Elect Trump on 2 assertions today
>
> The President-elect's comments at least have the virtue of
> consistency. Why should massive voter fraud only be real when
> Democrats win and suddenly mythological when Republicans prevail? Rob,
> I suspect no one on this list will take up your challenge and try to
> be as consistent in their myth-making as the President-elect. But if
> they do, have them also answer: why do illegal voters uniformly align
> with the Democratic Party? Presidential elections split every group
> and subgroup of voters but illegal voters seem to only vote Democratic.
>
> On Mon, Nov 28, 2016 at 11:11 AM, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org
> <mailto:rr at fairvote.org>> wrote:
>
> Just affirming that no takers on this challenge of defending the
> two assertions made yesterday by Donald Trump?
>
> Thanks,
>
> Rob
>
> On Sunday, November 27, 2016, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org
> <mailto:rr at fairvote.org>> wrote:
>
> Folks,
>
> President-elect Donald Trump has a quick thumb on Twitter, it
> seems. See report in New York Times,
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2016%2F11%2F27%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Ftrump-adviser-steps-up-searing-attack-on-romney.html&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=l%2Fs4SLF27Ty5OCpzTKTcHDIcSBdRSBpGEWqfjKn1mu8%3D&reserved=0>
> and see three tweets in a row at the bottom of this email,
> which put together result in this text:
>
> "In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide,
> I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people
> who voted illegally. It would have been much easier for me to
> win the so-called popular vote than the Electoral College in
> that I would only campaign in 3 or 4 states instead of the 15
> states that I visited. I would have won even more easily and
> convincingly (but smaller states are forgotten)!"
>
> So this list has participants with a full range of political
> opinions. But I'm curious to know if a single person on this
> list would attempt to back two claims in this statement:
>
> 1. Trump in fact won the popular vote this year "if you deduct
> the millions of people who voted illegally."
>
> 2. With a national popular vote, he would have campaigned in
> only 3 or 4 states instead of the whopping 15 states that he
> visited out of the nation's 51 (counting DC).
>
> When making your argument, keep in mind the latest data in
> from Dave Wasserman as he tracks the national popular vote here:
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/edit#gid=19
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8%2Fedit%23gid%3D19&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=2dE1nfM52TpLnuHkua6tOWNkKPOi%2FXn2SYBbe5f%2BCqQ%3D&reserved=0>
>
> With votes still being counted and finalized, Clinton's lead
> is up to more than 2.2 million (48.2% to 46.5%). It is
> expected to rise to more than 2.5% and about two percentage
> points. So let us know where that many illegal votes were cast
> this year -- seems important to have that information!
>
> Also, keep in mind the math of our nation's states when
> defending Trump's prospective campaign tactics with a popular
> vote. Mike McDonald's spreadsheet on turnout is here
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAcF0eJ06y_8T4o2gvIL4YcyQy8pxb1zYkgXF76Uu1s/edit#gid=2030096602
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F1VAcF0eJ06y_8T4o2gvIL4YcyQy8pxb1zYkgXF76Uu1s%2Fedit%23gid%3D2030096602&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=RAiFer7Swfyweht4ANic%2BJJE4%2FRpbqSKtQhM7mtWoNg%3D&reserved=0>
>
> Assuming comparable turnout of eligible voters across state, a
> candidate could win 100% of the vote in the 4 largest states
> (California, Texas, Florida and New York) and have only 31% of
> all votes in the nation. In, fact, you could win every cast in
> the 9 largest states and still be well under 50% of votes in
> the entire country - -and those states include a mix of
> strongly Democratic and Republican states, showing how still
> it is to suggest getting much more than half of the vote in
> those states in a nationally close election.
>
> So suggesting that campaigning in 15 states was due to our
> current Electoral College rules seems, well, a stretch. You
> can see how often he campaigned in those states, by the sway,
> at our tracker
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14Lxw0vc4YBUwQ8cZouyewZvOGg6PyzS2mArWNe3iJcY/edit#gid=0
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F14Lxw0vc4YBUwQ8cZouyewZvOGg6PyzS2mArWNe3iJcY%2Fedit%23gid%3D0&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=KlyyTIZUyMfKYBTZ%2FqVBPf74HMS0qjpBvpY%2BhEtI3TA%3D&reserved=0>
>
> Post-convention, Trump did well over half of his campaign
> evens in the four largest swing states - 26 campaign events in
> Florida, 16 in North Carolina, 13 in Ohio and 14 on
> Pennsylvania. Of our 13 states (counting DC) with 3 or 4
> electoral votes, he campaigned in only two -- 8 events in New
> Hampshire, and 3 in Maine
>
> Thanks,
>
> Rob Richie
>
> 1.*Donald J.
> Trump* @realDonaldTrump<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=Qj%2BHpt7NhpYiRIXzZYs9WQX5S10o1S%2BZQwhiZDjkRzw%3D&reserved=0>3h3
> hours ago
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>
> states instead of the 15 states that I visited. I would have
> won even more easily and convincingly (but smaller states are
> forgotten)!
>
> *0 replies5,702 retweets23,008 likes*
>
> Reply
>
> Retweet
>
> *5.7K*
>
> Like
>
> *23K*
>
> More
>
> 2.*Donald J.
> Trump* @realDonaldTrump<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=Qj%2BHpt7NhpYiRIXzZYs9WQX5S10o1S%2BZQwhiZDjkRzw%3D&reserved=0>4h4
> hours ago
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump%2Fstatus%2F802973848022847489&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=649WGGzyNMH5oyMmcUfXZJGJY9YTWgs9JiGxtTQs8Hk%3D&reserved=0>
>
> It would have been much easier for me to win the so-called
> popular vote than the Electoral College in that I would only
> campaign in 3 or 4--
>
> *0 replies6,324 retweets23,768 likes*
>
> Reply
>
> Retweet
>
> *6.3K*
>
> Like
>
> *24K*
>
> More
>
> 3.*Donald J.
> Trump* @realDonaldTrump<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=Qj%2BHpt7NhpYiRIXzZYs9WQX5S10o1S%2BZQwhiZDjkRzw%3D&reserved=0>4h4
> hours ago
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump%2Fstatus%2F802972944532209664&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=FVD1%2Fq8cHKdT58jI5lmlo12TEh0YC9xSNwtqPidX0Gg%3D&reserved=0>
>
> In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I
> won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who
> voted illegally
>
>
> --
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> Rob Richie
> Executive Director, FairVote
> 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
> Takoma Park, MD 20912
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> --
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> Rob Richie
> Executive Director, FairVote
> 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
> Takoma Park, MD 20912
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