[EL] ELB News and Commentary 10/26/16

Wed Oct 26 08:52:53 PDT 2016

“Funny Stuff in Philadelphia? Zero Votes Does Not Equal Fraud”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88109>
Posted on October 26, 2016 8:48 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88109> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
NYT’s The Upshot:<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/27/upshot/funny-stuff-in-philadelphia-zero-votes-does-not-equal-fraud.html?ref=politics>
Philadelphia attracts attention for its place in a swing state. It was where a 2008 news article about two New Black Panthers patrolling a polling place gained mythic proportions<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/14/AR2010071405880.html>. And the city — once home to a mighty Republican political machine — does have a history of corrupt elections dating to the 1970s-era mayor Frank Rizzo<http://www.nytimes.com/1978/11/09/archives/philadelphias-message-to-rizzo-enough-predicted-greatest-victory.html>.
But the most evocative evidence among conspiracy theorists about Philadelphia today turns on a single data point about the 2012 election. There were 59 voting divisions, or precincts, in the city where President Obama swept 100 percent of the vote. The Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, swayed not one soul in these places. A few conservative pundits have called the pattern statistically impossible. Mr. Trump himself has been incredulous: “I mean, like no votes.”<https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/788182394352394240/photo/1>
There is another, more credible, explanation. “This is definitely more about math than fraud,” said Jeffrey Carroll, an assistant professor of political science at Chestnut Hill College in Philadelphia who has analyzed those 2012 results. It is math partly of the G.O.P.’s own making.
In fact, there are predominantly black pockets in Philadelphia where no one wanted to vote for Mr. Romney. (Officials including the city’s Republican commissioner<http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2016/10/17/officials-strike-back-against-voter-fraud-accusations/> have looked at the data and today’s hard-to-rig voting machines and concluded the same<http://billypenn.com/2016/08/08/what-sean-hannity-got-wrong-about-philly-election-fraud/>).
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Posted in chicanery<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

“Indiana: a perfect storm for voter fraud debate”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88107>
Posted on October 26, 2016 8:39 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88107> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Ariane de Vogue<http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/indiana-voter-fraud/index.html> for CNN.
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Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

“Battleground states still fighting over voting laws, potential Election Day confusion”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88105>
Posted on October 26, 2016 8:35 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88105> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Sari Horwitz <https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/battleground-states-still-fighting-over-voting-laws-potential-election-day-confusion/2016/10/25/32560c4e-979d-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html?wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1> for WaPo.
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Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

“Here’s what we know so far about voter fraud and the 2016 elections”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88103>
Posted on October 26, 2016 8:27 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88103> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
The LA Times reports.<http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-voting-irregularities-snap-story.html>
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Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

“Chief Justice Roberts ‘Had It in for the Voting Rights Act;’ Now the lower courts are pushing back.”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88101>
Posted on October 26, 2016 8:23 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88101> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Important Stephanie Mencimer piece <http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/colorblind-justice-john-roberts-voting-rights-north-carolina> in Mother Jones.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D88101&title=%E2%80%9CChief%20Justice%20Roberts%20%E2%80%98Had%20It%20in%20for%20the%20Voting%20Rights%20Act%3B%E2%80%99%20Now%20the%20lower%20courts%20are%20pushing%20back.%E2%80%9D>
Posted in Supreme Court<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>, Voting Rights Act<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15>

Ohio Homeless Advocates File Emergency #SCOTUS Petition on OH Absentee/Provisional Voting Rules<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88099>
Posted on October 26, 2016 8:06 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88099> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
You can find the petition here.<http://src.bna.com/jDM> From the petition:
The Sixth Circuit’s decision left in place only the prohibition on requiring full and accurate completion of two fields (address and birthdate) on the absentee ID envelope. It disregarded the identical issues that occur in the provisional-ballot context—disproportionately cast by minority voters—and in the other three absentee-ID-envelope fields. Thus, under the Sixth Circuit’s ruling, if an absentee voter makes a mistake in the birthdate field, her vote will still count, but if, like Sally Miller mentioned above, for example, she misses one digit in the last four digits of her social-security number (SSN-4), she will be disenfranchised—even where other information on the form (including a matching signature) suffices to verify her identity and eligibility.Similarly, if an absentee voter makes a mistake in the birthdate field, her vote will still count, but a provisional voter (such as Kadar Hiir mentioned above) who makes the same mistake on the provisional affirmation form could be disenfranchised. This is true even though Defendant Secretary of State’s representative himself admitted at trial that the State’s purported voterregistration rationale does not justify the perfect-form requirements for provisional 5 ballots, see Damschroder Tr., R.665, PageID#31049; nor does fraud—the instances of which, he admitted, were “infinitesimal.” See id, at PageID#31051–31052; see also Sixth Circuit Op. at 23, App. A-023 (panel majority acknowledging “there is no indication of a legitimate fraud concern at all”). The Sixth Circuit’s decision is based upon flawed interpretations of constitutional and statutory law. It conflicts with this Court’s precedent and with other circuit courts in the following significant ways that warrant this Court’s consideration….
Aside from the merits, there is a serious question about timing.
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Posted in absentee ballots<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=53>, election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, Supreme Court<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

“Justin Timberlake’s voting selfie may have broken the law”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88097>
Posted on October 26, 2016 7:51 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88097> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
USA Today reports.<http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/people/2016/10/25/justin-timberlakes-voting-selfie-may-have-broken-law/92728472/>
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Posted in campaigns<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>

“Email shows Clinton campaign walking a fine line on fundraising”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88095>
Posted on October 26, 2016 7:43 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88095> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Michael Isikoff<https://sports.yahoo.com/news/email-shows-clinton-campaign-walking-a-fine-line-on-fundraising-230658222.html?.tsrc=jtc_news_article> for Yahoo.
Despite the headline, there does not appear to be anything close to the legal line here. In other words, the Clinton campaign was exploiting all the permissible avenues for raising money in a horrible legal system which needs to change.
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Posted in campaign finance<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>

“In Defense of Lowering the Voting Age (Draft)”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88093>
Posted on October 26, 2016 7:39 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88093> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Josh Douglas <https://www.pennlawreview.com/essays/index.php?id=47> for the U. Pa. L. Rev Online.  See also this piece in the SF Examiner.
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Posted in voting<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=31>

“FSFP Releases Two New Research Reports on Super PACs and Foreign Money in U.S. Corporations”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88091>
Posted on October 26, 2016 7:32 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88091> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
FSSP:<http://freespeechforpeople.org/research-reports/>
I. Quantifying Foreign Institutional Block Ownership at Publicly Traded 
U.S. Corporations
By: John C. Coates IV,  Ronald A. Fein, Kevin Crenny, and L. Vivian Dong
Since the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision invalidated restrictions on corporate political spending, considerable public and policymaker interest has developed in the potential for U.S. elections to be influenced by foreign interests through U.S. corporations. On the one hand, existing federal law (the Federal Election Campaign Act) already prohibits political spending in federal, state, or local elections by corporations that are incorporated outside the U.S., or which have their principal place of business abroad. On the other hand, current law still allows substantial avenues for foreign influence over corporate political spending by U.S.-incorporated and -based corporations.
Lawmakers in Congress and members of the Federal Election Commission have expressed interest in addressing this phenomenon. As of yet, federal reform proposals have failed to advance. A more likely near-term prospect for new policy measures is at the state and local level. Local governments (notably in St. Petersburg, Florida) are now contemplating measures to address this concern.
This paper focuses on ownership of significant blocks of stock as a potential mechanism for foreign influence over corporate political spending. We found that roughly one in eleven (9%) companies in the S&P 500 has one or more foreign institutions each owning five percent or more blocks of stock, nine have foreign institutions with ten percent or more blocks, five have a foreign institution with more than fifteen percent, and three have foreign institutions with more than 20% blocks. Three firms have multiple foreign institutional blockholders. This is the first recent empirical analysis of the level of foreign institutional blockholder ownership of publicly traded corporations.
II. The SpeechNow Case and the Real World of Campaign Finance
By: Stephen R. Weissman
In the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit’s SpeechNow decision, which created super PACs, the court theorized that contributions to so-called “independent expenditure committees” could not possibly result in corruption. In the real political world, however, as this study shows, top donors to super PACs and other independent spenders are not only contributing to these groups. They are simultaneously giving directly to the very candidates who benefit from their contributions to independent spending. The typical two-track donor supports multiple candidates in this fashion. Thus, while independent spending groups are legally restrained from coordinating with their beneficiaries, donors to such groups are legally permitted to financially coordinate with these same candidates within certain contribution limits. When donors amplify their legally limited direct contributions to candidates with unlimited indirect support via independent spending groups, an “anti-corruption interest in limiting contributions to an independent expenditure group” certainly arises. These unlimited contributions intensify the dangers of quid pro quo corruption and its appearance that contribution limits were established to prevent.
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Posted in campaign finance<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>

“Total cost of 2016 election could reach $6.6 billion, CRP predicts”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88089>
Posted on October 26, 2016 7:28 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88089> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Open Secrets:<https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2016/10/total-cost-of-2016-election-could-reach-6-6-billion-crp-predicts/>
Is 2016 the Year of the Billionaire when it comes to financing the election?…
Candidates and news outlets have decried the outsized influence of a small number of donors throughout the election season. Here’s a startling statistic: The top 100 families have given about 11.9 percent to the total $5.5 billion raised at this point, compared to 5.6 percent in all of 2012. Their names are familiar — Thomas and Kathryn Steyer have given $57.2 million to liberal causes, Sheldon and Miriam Adelson have doled out $47.3 million to GOP-allied forces, and Donald Sussman has so far provided $34.4 million to groups helping Democrats. Expect to see this list shift a bit: Facebook cofounder Dustin Moskovitz pledged an additional $35 million<http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/facebook-co-founder-drops-unprecedented-cash-to-stop-trump-230201> to defeat Donald Trump earlier this month.
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Posted in campaign finance<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>

“Trump Loyalists Planned Voter Intimidation Using Fake ID Badges, Fake Exit Polling — Until HuffPost Asked Them About It”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88087>
Posted on October 26, 2016 7:24 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88087> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
The bizarre Roger Stone “exit poll” story gets weirder, via HuffPo.<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/vote-protectors-voter-intimidation_us_580e4e63e4b0a03911ee03bc?>

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Posted in campaigns<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>, chicanery<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

Justice Breyer Not Too Worried About 8-Justice Supreme Court Handling Presidential Election Dispute<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88085>
Posted on October 26, 2016 7:20 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88085> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Glad he can be so sanguine.<http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2016/1025/Does-the-Supreme-Court-need-a-ninth-justice-Not-by-November-says-Breyer?cmpid=pushEP> I’m not (except for the fact that the election does not appear to be close right now).
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Posted in Supreme Court<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

Mitch McConnell: The Biggest Coward in American Politics<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88083>
Posted on October 25, 2016 4:17 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88083> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Despicable and dangerous<http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-sen-mcconnell-quiet-mum-43035349>:
But McConnell never mentioned Trump, and he declined to discuss the GOP nominee with a reporter after the event. Asked if he agreed with Trump that the election is “rigged,” McConnell laughed and walked away.
McConnell’s silence is especially notable in light of Trump’s recent complaints about the election system and hints he might not ultimately accept the results. Despite a lifetime in public service, McConnell has offered no reaction, passing up the opportunity to defend the nation’s democratic institutions.
Allies argue that for the 74-year-old McConnell, there is little upside in saying anything more about Trump at this point. Any stance he might adopt could cause complications for vulnerable GOP senators and candidates, who could face questions about whether they agree with whatever McConnell had to say.
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Posted in Uncategorized<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“25 Oct RELEASE: Early voters see problems with photo ID, intimidation”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88081>
Posted on October 25, 2016 2:45 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88081> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Texas Civil Rights Project.<https://www.texascivilrightsproject.org/en/2016/10/25/release-early-voters-see-problems-with-photo-id-intimidation/>
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Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

“No, there is no evidence that thousands of noncitizens are illegally voting and swinging elections”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88079>
Posted on October 25, 2016 2:43 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88079> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Important LA Times report.<http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-noncitizen-voters-20161025-snap-story.html>
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D88079&title=%E2%80%9CNo%2C%20there%20is%20no%20evidence%20that%20thousands%20of%20noncitizens%20are%20illegally%20voting%20and%20swinging%20elections%E2%80%9D>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

“Trump halts big-money fundraising, cutting off cash to the party”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88077>
Posted on October 25, 2016 2:10 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88077> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Matea Gold<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/25/trump-halts-big-money-fundraising-cutting-off-cash-to-the-party/?postshare=7781477429683957&tid=ss_tw> for WaPo:
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has effectively shut down his high-dollar fundraising operation for the rest of the campaign, a highly unusual move that deals another serious blow to the GOP’s effort to finance its get-out-the-vote operation before Election Day.
Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s national finance chairman, said in an interview with The Washington Post on Tuesday that Trump Victory, a joint fundraising committee between the party and the campaign, held its last formal fundraiser on Oct. 19. The luncheon was in Las Vegas on the day of the final presidential debate.
“We’ve kind of wound down,” Mnuchin said. “But the online fundraising continues to be strong.”
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Posted in Uncategorized<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“Federal Judge Orders West Virginia Clerk to Accept Online Voter Registrations”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88075>
Posted on October 25, 2016 11:50 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88075> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Release:<https://www.aclu.org/news/federal-judge-orders-west-virginia-clerk-accept-online-voter-registrations>
A federal court has ordered a West Virginia county clerk to accept and process online voter registrations. The ruling stems from an American Civil Liberties Union lawsuit<https://www.aclu.org/legal-document/mullins-v-cole-class-action-complaint>filed last week.
State law provides for online voter registration, and all other West Virginia counties accepted it save for Cabell County, where County Clerk Karen Cole refused. In a ruling from the bench today, Judge Robert Chambers ordered Cole to immediately begin processing online voter registrations.
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Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

“No More Bush v. Gore; The Supreme Court will never be able to settle another presidential election. That’s a bad thing”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88071>
Posted on October 25, 2016 11:35 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88071> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Dahlia Lithwick<http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2016/10/why_bush_v_gore_can_t_happen_again_and_why_that_s_a_bad_thing.html> for Slate.
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Posted in Bush v. Gore reflections<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=5>, Supreme Court<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>

Goldfeder Presidential Quiz<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88069>
Posted on October 25, 2016 11:33 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88069> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
It’s time.<http://www.stroock.com/files/upload/JerryGoldfederDailyQuiz.pdf>
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Posted in Uncategorized<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

Bauer and Ginsberg Send Letter Praising Local Officials’ Election Preparedness<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88067>
Posted on October 25, 2016 11:23 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88067> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
From the letter<http://cdn.bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/BPC-Bauer-Ginsberg-Election-Directors.pdf> written by the chairs of the Presidential Commission on Election Administration:
In the end, as we made clear in our report, the electoral process functions best as a partnership of campaigns, parties, voters, volunteer poll-workers officials, all cooperating toward the same goal of smoothly functioning and transparent polling locations that operate efficiently to allow all eligible voters to cast their ballots and to have confidence that their votes will be accurately tallied. Of course, as we noted in our report, “there has never been a perfectly run election in the United States or elsewhere, and perhaps there never will.” But thousands of officials each election cycle do their best with remarkable success, and with steady attention to improved administration where it is needed, and with support from both all participants in the process, they will be able to succeed again this year.
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Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

Talking to Terry Gross on NPR’s Fresh Air About Trump Vote Rigging Claims, Voter Fraud, and The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88064>
Posted on October 25, 2016 10:36 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88064> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Listen<http://www.npr.org/2016/10/25/499274789/rigging-an-election-its-not-so-easy-voting-law-expert-says>.
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Posted in chicanery<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, fraudulent fraud squad<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=8>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

“Election-rigging rhetoric hints at Trump’s post-election plans”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88062>
Posted on October 25, 2016 9:46 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88062> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
The Globe and Mail reports.<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/us-election/donald-trumps-campaign-is-a-stress-test-for-american-democracy/article32470901/>
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Posted in Uncategorized<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“Why Struck-Down Voter ID Laws Trouble Would-Be Voters”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88060>
Posted on October 25, 2016 8:11 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88060> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Another must-read<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/26/us/elections/voter-id-laws.html> from Michael Wines of the NYT:
While Donald J. Trump repeatedly claims that the election is “rigged”<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/17/us/politics/donald-trump-election-rigging.html>against him, voting rights groups are increasingly battling something more concrete in this year’s ferocious wars over access to the ballot box: Despite a string of court victories against restrictive voting laws passed by Republican legislatures, even when voting rights groups win in court, they are at risk of losing on the ground.
In an election year when turnout could be crucial, a host of factors — foot-dragging by states, confusion among voters, the inability of judges to completely roll back bias — are blunting the effect of court rulings against the laws.
Last month in Texas, a federal court that invalidated that state’s voter ID law in July<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/us/federal-court-rules-texas-id-law-violates-voting-rights-act.html>ordered recalcitrant state officials to change their public education campaign on new ID rules. The reason: Critics complained that the campaign muddied the central point of the court’s ruling, that voters without a state-approved ID could simply sign an affidavit to cast a ballot. In Kansas, the chief elections official, Secretary of State Kris Kobach, agreed last month to add nearly 20,000 properly registered voters to the state’s rolls only after being threatened with contempt of court.
And this month in North Carolina, plaintiffs complained to a judge that early-voting plans in five populous counties, including Charlotte’s Mecklenburg County, embraced some of the same discriminatory practices that federal courts had outlawed this summer. That came after two senior Republican Party officials advised local elections boards in emails to choose polling places and voting hours that inconvenience minorities and other Democratic-leaning constituencies….
But the crux of the Republicans’ argument is less whimsical: Tough election laws, they argue, are needed to keep Democrats from stealing elections. “What I find is that leaders of the other party are against efforts to crack down on voter fraud,” Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas, a Republican, said in March. Numerous studies and surveys of voting show the opposite: Election fraud is rare, and the in-person fraud that the laws could prevent is virtually absent.
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Posted in chicanery<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, fraudulent fraud squad<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=8>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

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Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
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http://electionlawblog.org<http://electionlawblog.org/>
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