[EL] Gerrymandering in other countries

[Michael McDonald]

We develop a method to estimate partisan bias in multi-party systems using
SMD, plurality-win and apply it to Mexico's lower national chamber here:

Micah Altman, Eric Magar, Michael P. McDonald, and Alejandro Trelles. 2017.
“Measuring Partisan Bias in a Multi-Party Setting: the Case of
Mexico.” *Political
Geography *57: 1-12.

We find a combination of bias from redistricting, malapportionment (from
apportionment of districts to states), and creeping malapportionment (from
failure to reapportion for many years) yields close to zero overall
partisan bias.

Mexico uses a form of PR to compensate for disproportionality of SMDs,
although like other systems it is not perfect at compensating. It is
interesting to us that in other (in-progress) work we can see the parties
attempting to engage in partisan gerrymandering of the districts.

============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, University of Florida
352-273-2371
www.electproject.org
@ElectProject

On Wed, Oct 25, 2017 at 3:03 PM, David Lublin <dlublin at american.edu> wrote:

> Soren also just reminded me via email of the terrific gerrymandering that
> occurs in Malaysia to benefit UMNO and the BN more broadly.
>
> This jogged my memory about the wealth of small island cases. In some
> Pacific Island states, gerrymandering is often severe with the capital
> usually enormously underrepresented, though this is sometimes mitigated by
> people voting on their home island even if they live in the capital (I
> think Tuvalu is one). There is also enormous variation in population
> between districts. A good example is Kiribati. Banaba has a special
> provision for a representative in addition to the one it receives even
> though it is the most lightly populated island.
>
> Micronesia gives each state a senator with other apportioned by
> population. This overrepresents the smaller states (Yap and Kosrae).
>
> Caribbean countries have redistricted infrequently and so population
> disparities are often quite large. One case where they did with disastrous
> results occurred in St. Vincent & the Grenadines. The Grenadines was
> divided into two constituencies. This extra seat, which led to
> overrepresentation of the Grenadines, allowed one party to win a majority
> even when they had clearly lost a majority of the vote and by even more on
> the main island of St. Vincent. Riots followed the election.
>
> In Antigua & Barbuda, Barbuda is guaranteed a seat. It is much smaller
> than average but the difference is within the enormous range for seats on
> Antigua.
>
> St. Kitts & Nevis requires that Nevis receive at least one-third of the
> elected members if the National Assembly grows beyond 11. Currently, Nevis
> has 3 of 11, which is less than one-third but about right.
>
> Trinidad & Tobago has provisions to protect Tobago but it receives its
> fair population share regardless. Redistricting is very controversial in
> T&T because the election is determined by the few marginal districts, which
> relate to racial compositions historically as the PNM was based in
> Afro-Trinis and the UNC in Indo-Trinis. The rise of the growing Dougla
> (mixed) population is beginning to change these dynamics.
>
> Mauritius has provision to protect Rodrigues, which receives two seats
> (about right based on population). I don't think Mauritius has redistricted
> in a long time, possibly since independence, so the populations of seats on
> the main island vary quite a bit (each elects three members).
>
> Best,
> David
>
>
> On Wed, Oct 25, 2017 at 2:45 PM, Soren Dayton <soren.dayton at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> India has had only one redistricting ("delimitation") since 1971 and, by
>> constitutional amendment, can't redraw maps until 2025.
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delimitation_Commission_of_India
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_Delimitation-5FCommission-5Fof-5FIndia&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=lhgvIa9CuXsliwlAzSS4xDjUgmOZOJjf1zxBoBLriYw&s=sI7GvFMy2YbxPb4t16WSHrTE2YJVhILxESoMaYrQ2WU&e=>
>>
>> Size of districts vary by a factor of 60.
>>
>> When combined with pro-rural biases in administration, cities are
>> massively under-represented.
>>
>> On Wed, Oct 25, 2017 at 2:24 PM David Lublin <dlublin at american.edu>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Hi Ed,
>>>
>>> Not to advertise but I have chapter in my book, *Minority Rules*, on
>>> gerrymandering and minorities/ethnic parties around the world. I don't know
>>> whether you intend to include malapportionment or not but here are a few
>>> cases in both SMD and PR systems:
>>>
>>> Canada has had malapportionment that tends to benefit smaller provinces,
>>> or most except Ontario, Alberta and possibly BC. Harper's change to the
>>> distribution rules made things much fairer. However, smaller provinces are
>>> still somewhat overrepresented. Rural areas are overrepresented in most
>>> provinces with vast seats in the northern part tending to have far fewer
>>> people, which may help indigenous peoples.
>>>
>>> Australia has similar malapportionment within some states (I think,
>>> Western Australia) but I'd double check, though not at the federal level.
>>> Both Canada and Australia do not have gerrymandering in the sense of direct
>>> manipulation of district lines.
>>>
>>> Singapore has two types of gerrymandering. First, they are very careful
>>> to arrange where people live--the government controls most housing--to
>>> avoid too high concentrations of Malay/Indian minorities anywhere. Second,
>>> after each election, the government rearranges the lines to dismember
>>> opposition seats or weaken them. Not a free democracy, however.
>>>
>>>
>>> Quite a few countries with PR engage in intentional malapportionment. I
>>> don't know if you mean to include these cases:
>>>
>>> In Spain, there is a bias toward rural areas in the central government
>>> as well as in many autonomous communities. At the national level, each
>>> province gets 2 seats (more complex rules for the Canaries and the
>>> Ceuta/Melilla get on apiece) and the remaining are distributed without
>>> regard to the first two, so provinces with large cities, like Madrid and
>>> Barcelona in particular, are underrepresented.
>>>
>>> In Catalonia, the non-Barcelona provinces are overrepresented in the
>>> legislature. This aids nationalist parties and created a wrong-winner
>>> situation once. If they hold elections now, it is possible to get a
>>> separatist majority in the legislature without majority support. In the
>>> last elections, they fell just short of a majority but gained a majority
>>> (Junts pel Si + CUP).
>>>
>>> In the Basque Country, each province has an equal number of seats, which
>>> works against the Basque nationalists, as this severely overrepresents
>>> Alava as the expense of the other two.
>>>
>>> In Brazil, the military regime's creation of new states and the minimum
>>> number of seats for each of the states, and the maximum placed on Sao
>>> Paulo, was seen as intentional to benefit the right. I think something
>>> similar may have occurred in terms of raising the minimum number of seats
>>> per province in Argentina.
>>>
>>> Malapportionment used to be a problem in the UK but has been mostly
>>> eliminated. Before the Troubles, the NI Parliament was gerrymandered
>>> against the Catholic Nationalists and for the Protestant Unionists.
>>>
>>> Hope this helps,
>>> David
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Wed, Oct 25, 2017 at 1:55 PM, Edward Still <still at votelaw.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> A friend asked me "wondering about gerrymandering  -- is it a
>>>> significant problem in other countries, particularly western democracies?"
>>>>
>>>> Anyone have a good answer to this?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Edward Still
>>>> Edward Still Law Firm LLC
>>>> 429 Green Springs Hwy, STE 161
>>>> <https://maps.google.com/?q=429+Green+Springs+Hwy,+STE+161&entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>> -304
>>>> Birmingham AL 35209
>>>> 205-320-2882 <(205)%20320-2882>
>>>> still at votelaw.com
>>>> www.linkedin.com/in/edwardstill
>>>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.linkedin.com_edwardstill&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=sLsJDwx1IqLPKpzDp0RL3m-VD6CsnAJFkYrU-a1Lv8A&s=78O_RUXBCmrbkheeMCAIBsbSHl0YQeWnEAjkSm0nUVI&e=>
>>>> Twitter: @edwardstill
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
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>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> David Lublin
>>> Professor of Government
>>> School of Public Affairs
>>> American University
>>> 4400 Massachusetts Ave.
>>> <https://maps.google.com/?q=4400+Massachusetts+Ave.+Washington,+D.C.+20016&entry=gmail&source=g>
>>> Washington, D.C. 20016
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>>> http://davidlublin.com/
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>>
>>
>
>
> --
> David Lublin
> Professor of Government
> School of Public Affairs
> American University
> 4400 Massachusetts Ave.
> Washington, D.C. 20016
> http://davidlublin.com/
>
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