[EL] Ward lines and violence in Chicago?

[John Tanner]

I would not dismiss the causation out of hand.  Back in, I think, 119,the council moved a chunk of overpopulated Ward 3, which Mayor Barry (recently honored by the District with a statue) memorably referred to as “Upper Caucasia”, to predominantly black Ward 4.  The changed was opposed by many of those being moved out of Ward 3 on the grounds that it would lower their property values.  The property values remain strong, although they haven”t soared in tandem with those of the remnant of Upper Caucasia.  Ward 3, by the way, was the core of Trump support in DC, as he polled fully seven percent of the vote, about 75% above the city average. 

> On Apr 13, 2018, at 12:29 PM, Douglas Johnson <djohnson at ndcresearch.com> wrote:
> 
> While the headline is obviously effective at gathering attention, there are some fundamental problems with the suggested cause-and-effect:
>  
> First, it is much more likely that these areas are moved in redistricting because they are already relatively violent areas that a councilmember no longer wants to deal with, rather than the idea that the areas become violent because they are moved in redistricting.
>  
> Second, the author’s own words indicate that the city’s highly questionable method of tying community service non-profits to specific councilmembers is much more to blame than redistricting:
> “He also found that it was difficult for constituents to form bonds with the politicians and affiliated non-profits that could boost their anti-violence efforts. . . . “When non-profits do work, they want to make sure they’re getting good press for the alderman who helped them get funding; they sure as hell aren’t going to work in a rival’s ward,”
>  
> Doug
>  
> Douglas Johnson
> National Demographics Corporation
> 310-200-2058
> djohnson at NDCresearch.com <mailto:djohnson at NDCresearch.com>
> www.NDCresearch.com <http://www.ndcresearch.com/>
>  
>  
>  
> From: Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu <mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>> On Behalf Of Rick Hasen
> Sent: Friday, April 13, 2018 8:36 AM
> To: Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu <mailto:law-election at uci.edu>>
> Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 4/13/18
> “Are Changing Ward Lines a Source of Chicago’s Violence?” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=98661>
> Posted on April 12, 2018 7:05 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=98661> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> Chicago Magazine <http://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/April-2018/Are-Changing-Ward-Lines-a-Source-of-Chicagos-Violence/>, with the subhead: “A University of Chicago sociologist is investigating the possibility that small areas, which have been shifted between wards over the years, are more prone to it—perhaps because they fall through the political cracks.”
> <image001.png> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D98661&title=%E2%80%9CAre%20Changing%20Ward%20Lines%20a%20Source%20of%20Chicago%E2%80%99s%20Violence%3F%E2%80%9D>
> Posted in Uncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
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