[EL] RCV in Maine and Third-Party Spoilers
Hess, Doug
HESSDOUG at Grinnell.EDU
Mon Dec 3 11:11:21 PST 2018
Thanks, Rob.
Also, for those following ME, there is a recount taking place. So it is possible some changes in the results will take place. Since it is all optical scan (from what I can tell), I assume most changes in a recount might relate to marks that didn’t register (i.e., an undervote was not an undervote) or to stray marks that did register (i.e., mostly marks that made something read as overvote). If that is so, the number of under and over votes might come down a bit.
The link below includes a link to how the process runs.
https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2018/recountrankedchoice.html
Douglas R Hess
Assistant Professor of Political Science
Grinnell College
1210 Park Street, Carnegie Hall #309
Grinnell, IA 50112
phone: 641-269-4383
http://www.douglasrhess.com<http://www.douglasrhess.com/>
From: Rob Richie [mailto:rr at fairvote.org]
Sent: Monday, December 03, 2018 1:04 PM
To: Theo Landsman <tlandsman at fairvote.org>
Cc: Hess, Doug <HESSDOUG at Grinnell.EDU>; law-election at UCI.EDU
Subject: Re: [EL] RCV in Maine and Third-Party Spoilers
Thanks for helping to answer Doug's question. On this point, this kind of transparency is admirable; a growing number of cities with ranked choice voting do it as well, including the four in the Bay Area that voted last month.
I'll add that at FairVote we're looking under the hood at some of the numbers from the 2018 election in Maine - the latest in a string of some 10 elections with ranked choice voting around the country where turnout surpassed projections and voters by multiple measures handled the system well -- not perfectly, of course, but in a way that is quite encouraging to those who think it's a good say.
Looking at the Maine elections website, we looked at people who cast blank ballots in different races. The three RCV races (one statewide for US Senate and two congressional races) drew more votes than what likely would have happened without RCV. For example, see those relative numbers on "blank ballots" (undervotes):
- In CD1 In 2014, the undervote in CD1 was 13,089 blank votes. In 2016, the undervote was 14,551. In 2018, with the first use of RCV, the undervote was only 7,910 votes.
- In CD2: In 2014, the undervote in CD2 was 11,532. in 2016, the number of blank votes in CD2 was 12,703. In 2018, the reported undervote. was only 6,018, with another 435 overvotes. Even after the instant runoff and including all overvotes and ballots exhausted between rounds, the total number of uncountable votes (14,706) wasn't much more than 2014 undervote alone despite fewer voters in 2014.
- In 2014,there were more undervotes for US Senate than in 2018 even with fewer people at the polls.-- 12,959 blank votes compared to 11,655 this year in Angus King's race. In 2014, the undervote in the governor's race was 5,740 blank votes. less than half of the senate undervote.
Here was our news release from last week focused on additional CD2 numbers and survey data:
https://www.fairvote.org/more_ballots_same_results_in_maine_s_2nd_district_race<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.fairvote.org_more-5Fballots-5Fsame-5Fresults-5Fin-5Fmaine-5Fs-5F2nd-5Fdistrict-5Frace&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=_WesVYemvgHRkYJ584qGBo7GQx1dUO1Q-Z3bhXqxAAI&s=D4OLIZ0jumerGUO7zDremfKoiHR6vF0cTgQAWngPPqk&e=>
Rob
On Mon, Dec 3, 2018 at 9:13 AM Theodore Landsman <tlandsman at fairvote.org<mailto:tlandsman at fairvote.org>> wrote:
I've verified the Maine tabulation and would be happy to share my data on ranking patterns and how ballots were processed. The biggest problem I've seen people have replicating the results arises from producing 'effective choices' (that is understanding that a first choice undervote followed by a valid second choice counts as a valid first choice vote) and Maine rules on skipped rankings, (two consecutive undervotes exhausts a ballot, but non consecutive undervotes or bullet votes followed by valid choices do not).
Nathan Tefft at Bates College has a good overview of how to process the Maine ballots, and has also been able to verify the Maine SoS count:
https://github.com/ntefft/rcv<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__github.com_ntefft_rcv&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=_WesVYemvgHRkYJ584qGBo7GQx1dUO1Q-Z3bhXqxAAI&s=HnlaAZ7kD31KKrU6rapt1PrdrtrwuRlcmA6ooexM138&e=>
On Mon, Dec 3, 2018 at 11:47 AM Hess, Doug <HESSDOUG at grinnell.edu<mailto:HESSDOUG at grinnell.edu>> wrote:
In exploring the ballot information that ME provides (they provide for each ballot the order of choices as well as when that choice was under-voted or over-voted), I can also tell that they took the 2nd choice for anybody that under-voted for their 1st choice and applied that in the second round as well.
By looking at that data (from the link below), you can also see examples of some oddities in how people treated the ballot. See images below (if you cannot see them, you can email me privately for them). Seems an electronic ballot might be the only way to prevent these errors (unless people were trying to communicate something with these odd patterns of choices).
Is anybody else working on this data? I may contact the state, but I cannot get the exact outcome they certified for the final result (earlier totals in the process work, but the final is off by just a few hundred).
Douglas R Hess
Assistant Professor of Political Science
Grinnell College
1210 Park Street, Carnegie Hall #309
Grinnell, IA 50112
phone: 641-269-4383
http://www.douglasrhess.com<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.douglasrhess.com_&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=_WesVYemvgHRkYJ584qGBo7GQx1dUO1Q-Z3bhXqxAAI&s=0JH5P88uM5kziOfsaju9w0FkTarpbPX9AyRoy1V3hsU&e=>
From: Jack Santucci [mailto:jms346 at georgetown.edu<mailto:jms346 at georgetown.edu>]
Sent: Friday, November 30, 2018 2:38 PM
To: David Lublin <dlublin at american.edu<mailto:dlublin at american.edu>>
Cc: Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu>>; Hess, Doug <HESSDOUG at Grinnell.EDU<mailto:HESSDOUG at Grinnell.EDU>>
Subject: Re: [EL] RCV in Maine and Third-Party Spoilers
Ditto on STV in US cities. Batch elimination of candidates below some threshold (e.g., 50 votes) was standard procedure in the 1910s-50s. I think (but don't quote me) that this threshold was as high as 2,000 in New York City.
Jack
Sent from my iPhone
On Nov 30, 2018, at 15:01, David Lublin <dlublin at american.edu<mailto:dlublin at american.edu>> wrote:
This is handled differently across countries. Ireland often eliminates multiple candidates who stand no hope of making the quota at the same time in their STV system. I'm not sure how they decide but think that the returning officers have some discretion. In Australia, they always report each transfer as each candidate is eliminated, which of course makes it easier to see how the preferences flowed. Even though it thwarts following preferences, the decision in Maine seems reasonable as no one would achieve a majority by elimination of only the last place candidate.
Best,
David Lublin
On Fri, Nov 30, 2018 at 2:30 PM Hess, Doug <HESSDOUG at grinnell.edu<mailto:HESSDOUG at grinnell.edu>> wrote:
Here’s a question about the Maine RCV election: Why do they eliminate two instead of just one at a time? Given how close the election was in Round 1 and the large vote for the losing candidate, you could have had (albeit very unlikely) Poliquin win with 51.7% of the vote if all of Hoar’s votes had transferred to him.
Granted, the probability of that happening in this situation approaches null, but you get the idea. Or am I missing something?
If they do check for that, or even if they don’t, it would be great to know how the votes transferred by each eliminated candidate instead of both together. I haven’t checked their other RCV races.
The table below is my arrangement of data from the Nov 26, 2018 file of certified results on the Maine SOS website. This means the totals are slightly larger than in Vladimir’s email, but the relationships are largely the same.
Douglas R Hess
Assistant Professor of Political Science
Grinnell College
1210 Park Street, Carnegie Hall #309
Grinnell, IA 50112
phone: 641-269-4383
http://www.douglasrhess.com<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.douglasrhess.com_&d=DwMGaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=K0zyd2Z4j71d02w628AD_m72Qvxaezv6R7sioWtTbJU&s=NT0GLzCbJIai0ZWyEKGwGSUWHu-a3BNQS-Fm0Pzkefw&e=>
From: Kogan, Vladimir [mailto:kogan.18 at osu.edu<mailto:kogan.18 at osu.edu>]
Sent: Monday, November 26, 2018 8:08 PM
To: Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org<mailto:rr at fairvote.org>>
Cc: law-election at UCI.EDU<mailto:law-election at UCI.EDU>
Subject: Re: [EL] RCV in Maine and Third-Party Spoilers
Rob: Completely agree that off-cycle runoffs are horrible!
From: Rob Richie [mailto:rr at fairvote.org]
Sent: Monday, November 26, 2018 9:00 PM
To: Kogan, Vladimir
Cc: law-election at UCI.EDU<mailto:law-election at UCI.EDU>
Subject: Re: [EL] RCV in Maine and Third-Party Spoilers
I thought Vlad's email offers an opportunity to think why sometimes voters "exhaust" ballots with ranked choice voting or don't come back for runoff elections -- with, on the latter, the average drop inf participation in federal congressional runoffs this year being 47% of the first round, with half the runoff winners in fact earning fewer votes in the runoff than they did in the first round.
Although it's perhaps fun to look at the new kid on the block (ranked choice voting), I thought i'd look at the old standards of runoffs through the eye of exhaustion - -specifically the Top Two elections in California this year.
See some numbers below that I generated from the California Secretary of State's website. As of Nov. 26, with votes still being tallied<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__vote.sos.ca.gov_returns_governor&d=DwMGaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=toVAec3-Hd1lH-6OfgFj2QG2wvva5-kmJj0jrp32VbI&s=4XOeQxhf0TSSUpky2UH4GkXicW7q7zmSroDzQAaIB0s&e=>. you'll see votes for governor (a Democrat-Republican runoff), Secretary of State (a Democrat-Republican runoff), and Lt. Governor (a Democrat-Democrat runoff).
My comparison isn't with the June preliminary round ("primary"), but within the same contest with voter reacting to the choices being offered to them. With the D-R runoff in statewide races, the dropoff from governor to those races is small. For Secretary of State, for example. it is only 1.53%. But for the D-D runoff for Lt. governor (and to a large, if lesser extent for US Senate), the dropoff is much bigger - 16.24% in the case of Lt. governor, or nearly 1.9 million votes.
If you think about who is likely dropping off, it's almost certainly Republicans. If you generously use the Cox vote in the governor's race as a the baseline for Republicans, that means that more than 40% of Republican voters likely skipped the Lt. Governor race -- they indicated a "pox on both your houses."
That is actually higher than the percentage of Maine independents who didn't indicate a Republican or Democrat as a backup preference. And I'm actually not surprised by that dropfff - there often is a core of third party and independent voters who really do think some version of "the lesser of 2 evils is still evil" or "don't encourage them with a vote."
So, then, the question is whether those voters are "spoilers" or really "abstainers." Are they fundamentally different than the some 40% of Maine's eligible voters who didn't vote at all? I'd suggest not. Just like those non-voters, they were "in play" for the candidates, and the candidates in fact did do enough to earn the votes of almost two-thirds of the independent candidate backers. The fact that they didn't earn the rest is something they'll need to reflect on, just like they need to reflect on not inspiring so many potential voters to get to the polls in the first place.
Speaking of runoffs as an alternative to RCV, I trust Vlad will keep an eye on the upcoming runoffs in Mississippi and Georgia. The Mississippi runoff turnout in the US Senate race may end up being pretty high , given the stakes -- we'll see. The Georgia turnout for next months' runoffs for secretary of state and another statewide office... not so much. You can be absolutely sure that a winner with RCV in the GA Secretary of State race this year would have won with a much larger number of votes than will end up being the case with runoffs.
- Rob Richie
CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR
Gavin Newsom (D)
7,213,464
John H. Cox (R)
4,481,280
Total Votes
11,694,744
CALIFORNIA SECRETARY OF STATE RACE
Alex Padilla (D)
7,385,637
Mark P. Meuser (R)
4,130,499
Total votes
11,516,136
Dropoff, votes
178,608
1.53%
CALIFORNIA LT. GOVERNOR RACE
Eleni Kounalakis (D)
5,542,766
Ed Hernandez (D)
4,253,319
Total votes
9,796,085
Dropoff, votes
1,898,659
16.24%
Dropoff of GOP Voters (est)
42.37%
(lt. governor dropoff divided by Cox vote)
On Mon, Nov 26, 2018 at 7:45 PM Kogan, Vladimir <kogan.18 at osu.edu<mailto:kogan.18 at osu.edu>> wrote:
I wanted to flag the election results in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where ranked-choice voting was used. Four candidates ran — one Democrat, one Republican, two independents. Here are the results:
Round 1
Round 2
Candidate Names
Votes
Percentage
Transfer
Votes
Percentage
Transfer
Bond, Tiffany L.
16260
05.73%
-16260
0
00.00%
0
DEM Golden, Jared F.
128999
45.48%
10232
139231
50.53%
0
Hoar, William R.S.
6753
02.38%
-6753
0
00.00%
0
REP Poliquin, Bruce
131631
46.41%
4695
136326
49.47%
0
Several things worth highlighting: (1) The “ballot exhaustion” rate was fairly low, about 2.8% of valid first-round votes; (2) the victor still did not win a majority of valid first-round votes; (3) by my calculation 35% (!) of voters who picked one of the independents as their #1 choice did not subsequently rank either the Democrat or Republican in a lower-ranked position.
I bring this up in response to the argument that RCV is a solution to the problem of third-party spoilers (who syphon off enough votes from one major-party candidate to lose him/her the election). Of course, all of those 35% may not have voted at all had the independent candidates not run; or perhaps they would’ve voted for Bond or Hoar even in the absence of RCV (assuming, of course, that Bond and Hoar would’ve still run had the election not been held under RCV…). But I thought this was worth flagging.
Note: This is not meant to be a general indictment of RCV or an argument that RCV is worse than the alternative.
Vlad
Error! Filename not specified.
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https://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__department-2Dlists.uci.edu_mailman_listinfo_law-2Delection&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=_WesVYemvgHRkYJ584qGBo7GQx1dUO1Q-Z3bhXqxAAI&s=vDP0npkMwE42CJd_bNodZRsJT7Cd9JTEJqOXeaPMxMA&e=>
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Rob Richie
President and CEO, FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
Takoma Park, MD 20912
rr at fairvote.org<mailto:rr at fairvote.org> (301) 270-4616 http://www.fairvote.org<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.fairvote.org&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=_WesVYemvgHRkYJ584qGBo7GQx1dUO1Q-Z3bhXqxAAI&s=VeNMEk_-ZMCLdonMhF0LVPzR1g90BjfZHI8Zeij1JgI&e=>
FairVote Facebook<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.facebook.com_FairVoteReform&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=_WesVYemvgHRkYJ584qGBo7GQx1dUO1Q-Z3bhXqxAAI&s=0qmj7d0IBl_X942ah2Sq3dIAt8Lu5hOBpQ0NlaBoXFo&e=> FairVote Twitter<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__twitter.com_fairvote&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=_WesVYemvgHRkYJ584qGBo7GQx1dUO1Q-Z3bhXqxAAI&s=BS86U5KRA4aiJBg4GRgBKCyMLIkgw-tPs_KjB7Ixrtw&e=> My Twitter<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__twitter.com_rob-5Frichie&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=_WesVYemvgHRkYJ584qGBo7GQx1dUO1Q-Z3bhXqxAAI&s=9i9EqLKlHAsxeCeD5qrQJYsqsHrltQg0C1KvYYV9WWA&e=>
Thank you for considering a donation<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.fairvote.org_donate&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=_WesVYemvgHRkYJ584qGBo7GQx1dUO1Q-Z3bhXqxAAI&s=ubxKPDJ2QXTbmU0dTqo86fuU5ZYxVfrZfiQNflZJumI&e=>. Enjoy our video on ranked choice voting<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__youtu.be_CIz-5FnzP-2DW-5Fc&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=_WesVYemvgHRkYJ584qGBo7GQx1dUO1Q-Z3bhXqxAAI&s=_8FkNwf42gXx-w6Hb8zKuu4-5p1TIssWV0AYcboWa1A&e=>!
(Note: Our Combined Federal Campaign number is 10132.)
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