[EL] ELB News and Commentary 12/6/18

Wed Dec 5 21:04:34 PST 2018

“North Carolina Republicans Targeted Voter Fraud. Did They Look at the Wrong Kind?”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102666>
Posted on December 5, 2018 9:01 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102666> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

NYT:<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/us/politics/north-carolina-vote-fraud-absentee.html>

At least one outside expert suggested that was disingenuous. Legislators crafted stringent identification requirements to combat voter impersonation, but “did very little with respect to what could have been done” to protect absentee ballots, said Paul Gronke, a political science professor and director of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Portland, Ore. For example, he said, other states verify ballot signatures and notify absentee voters when their ballots are received and counted.

“If you’re going to be consistent — if your concern is voter fraud — you should be scrutinizing and improving the absentee-ballot system, not in-person voting,” said Mr. Gronke, who was an expert witness in a lawsuit challenging the 2013 voting law. “Because in-person fraud virtually never happens.”
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Posted in fraudulent fraud squad<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=8>

“Trump Gets It All Wrong; Beware of busloads of voters with phony mustaches.”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102664>
Posted on December 5, 2018 8:53 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102664> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Gail Collins NYT column<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/opinion/trump-wrong-voter-fraud.html>.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

#NC09: Harry Enten: “Why the case for election fraud in North Carolina is strong;” Charlotte Observer Editorial Board Calls for New Election<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102661>
Posted on December 5, 2018 6:51 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102661> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Harry Enten<https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/05/politics/north-carolina-election-fraud/index.html> analysis for CNN:

The North Carolina State Board of Elections and Ethics last week voted against certifying<https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article222263905.html> Republican Mark Harris’ 905 vote win over Democrat Dan McCready in the state’s 9th Congressional District.
In the days since, allegations of election fraud<https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/03/politics/north-carolina-absentee-ballot-investigation-house-race/index.html> involving absentee mail-in ballots have been made public.
The case for election fraud appears to be strong. That’s because it’s doesn’t rely on just one or two pieces of evidence. Rather, it’s a slew of evidence. This means that even if one part of the case were to fall apart, there would be still be reason to believe that the election wasn’t on the level.

Meanwhile, the Charlotte Observer editorial board<https://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/article222602100.html> has called for a new election.:

In the week since the state Board of Elections declined to certify the results of North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District election, journalists and others have begun to fill in the details<https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/north-carolina-election-fraud-investigation-centers-on-operative-with-criminal-history-who-worked-for-gop-congressional-candidate/2018/12/03/7b270a90-f6aa-11e8-8c9a-860ce2a8148f_story.html?utm_term=.3c66d22e3a90> of a troubling case of apparent ballot fraud<https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article222459875.html>. In Bladen County — and perhaps other counties — individuals have interfered with the voting process by gaining access to others’ absentee ballots, according to witnesses and records. Investigators also are looking into the burgeoning scandal.

There may be no way, however, to know how widespread the fraud was, or whether it involved enough ballots to potentially change the outcome of the election — a 905-vote victory for Republican Mark Harris over Democrat Dan McCready. But we do know enough. Unless new evidence somehow clears the clouds hanging over this election, the Board of Elections should toss out the 9th District results.

Calling for a new election would be an enormously significant decision for the board. It should be done with the support of N.C. statutes and without a whiff of partisan politics. Republicans from Raleigh to Washington would surely howl; already, they’ve noted that the number of absentee ballots cast in Bladen County falls short of the overall margin of victory in the 9th.

This is true. But witnesses have said that their ballots, which were collected by individuals apparently working for ringleader McCrae Dowless, were never submitted to the county or state.
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Posted in chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>

“A Comparison of Gerrymandering Metrics”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102659>
Posted on December 5, 2018 5:24 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102659> by Nicholas Stephanopoulos<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=12>

I wanted to flag this terrific paper<https://arxiv.org/pdf/1805.12572v1.pdf> by Gregory Warrington on the various quantitative measures of partisan asymmetry that have been proposed in recent years. Warrington calculates each metric over more than 1000 historical elections as well as over a range of simulated outcomes. He then examines how the metrics are correlated with one another, which plans they identify as the most skewed, and under what circumstances the metrics disagree. His conclusion, which mirrors my and Eric McGhee’s judgment<https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3077766>, is that all of the common measures are reliable in competitive electoral environments. In uncompetitive settings, though, partisan bias and the mean-median difference should not be used, while the efficiency gap and the declination still may be.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

Florida Election Official Gets Ovation from Other Election Officials After Describing How He Broke Florida Law in Accepting Email and Faxed Ballots After Hurricane<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102656>
Posted on December 5, 2018 4:29 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102656> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

I understand the desire to enfranchise voters, but this i<http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/12/05/how-did-floridas-panhandle-pull-off-an-election-after-a-hurricane-a-ground-zero-election-official-explains/>s really troubling:
The county election office lost a section of its roof and the building flooded. Anderson and others lived there for two days without working bathrooms. Political signs were used to push water out of the building. Critical servers were taken apart, dried by sunshine and cleaned with toothbrushes while they waited for rescue crews to reach them.
Anderson compared the isolation and conditions to Gilligan’s Island. They finally emerged only to find total devastation around them. The main thoroughfare, Highway 98, was covered in downed trees, powerlines and the remnants of the businesses that once lined the street.
Destruction aside, how could they manage an election? Polling locations were destroyed. Cell phone service was spotty. The postal service was down. One employee of 37 years lost her home yet still showed up to help, Anderson recalled, choking back tears.
It was under these conditions that Anderson said he made choices that ran afoul of state laws for administering elections, like setting up alternative polling locations in churches, a no-no, and why he defied a direct order from the state not to allow votes by email or fax.
Anderson previously told the Times/Herald that 11 ballots were accepted by email and 147 ballots were domestically faxed in.
“What would someone else do? The same cotton pickin’ thing I did,” Anderson said. “Find a way.”
Gov. Rick Scott issued an executive order Oct. 18 that allowed elections supervisors in eight hurricane-hit counties — Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Liberty and Washington — to extend early voting days and designate more early voting locations.
Calhoun County, for example, opened a polling location in a tent set up by the Federal Emergency Management Administration, the county’s supervisor Sharon Chason said Wednesday. Anderson opened what he called “mega voting sites” throughout the county that where voters could cast a ballot Oct. 27 through Nov. 6 from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
But Scott’s order did not allow for votes to be returned by email or fax.
“Voting by fax or email is not an option under the Executive Order,” the Florida Department of State stated in a news release that accompanied Scott’s order.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner wins re-election after fierce challenge”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102654>
Posted on December 5, 2018 2:56 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102654> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

CNN<https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/05/politics/new-hampshire-bill-gardner-secretary-of-state/index.html>:

New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, an ardent defender of his state’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary status, narrowly held off a challenger Wednesday to win re-election to the post he’s held since 1976.
Gardner defeated Colin Van Ostern, a Democrat who argued Gardner had legitimized unproven GOP claims of voter fraud, 209 to 205, on the second ballot cast by a state legislature that had been sworn in hours earlier.
The race drew national attention because of Gardner’s unique role in presidential politics. He has the authority to set New Hampshire’s primary date and has held off other states’ efforts to move their primaries ahead of the Granite State’s for decades.
New Hampshire lawmakers choose the secretary of state — and while Gardner is nominally a Democrat, he’d been re-elected to the post for 40 years, largely without serious opposition.
But Gardner faced an intense backlash among Democrats over his decision to participate in President Donald Trump’s commission that sought — but did not find — evidence to support the President’s unproven claims of widespread voter fraud.
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Posted in election law biz<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=51>

“18 Things We Learned About Money in Politics in 2018”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102652>
Posted on December 5, 2018 2:02 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102652> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Ciara Torres-Spelliscy blogs.<https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/18-things-we-learned-about-money-politics-2018>
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>

Florida Secretary of State, a Gubernatorial Appointee, Resisting Restoration of Felon Voting Rights Approved Overwhelmingly by Florida Voters<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102649>
Posted on December 5, 2018 8:30 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102649> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
View image on Twitter<https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1070348686004236290/photo/1>
[View image on Twitter]<https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1070348686004236290/photo/1>
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<https://twitter.com/ElectProject>
Michael McDonald at ElectProject<https://twitter.com/ElectProject>

<https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1070348686004236290>

Florida's Republican SoS is resisting implementation of the restoration of felons voting rights, overwhelmingly approved by voters. And, yeah, this is going to lead to costly litigation for the state, with voters footing the bill https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/12/04/confusion-and-uncertainty-cloud-restoration-of-felons-voting-rights/ …<https://t.co/1lqPpKQMeX>
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70<https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1070348686004236290>
8:06 AM - Dec 5, 2018<https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1070348686004236290>
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73 people are talking about this<https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1070348686004236290>

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Posted in felon voting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=66>

“The Lame-Duck Power Grab: Republicans lost in Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Their response has been to take power away from incoming Democrats.”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102647>
Posted on December 5, 2018 7:52 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102647> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Slate:<https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/12/republican-democracy-stress-test-michigan-wisconsin-north-carolina.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_ru>

In 2012, North Carolina Republicans won a “trifecta” of legislative and executive power. They used their newfound power to aggressively gerrymander the electoral map and impose new restrictions on voting. In 2016, Democrats reversed those gains, narrowly toppling incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory—and the GOP Legislature responded by stripping the incoming executive<https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/16/13971368/republican-power-grab-north-carolina-explained> of key powers and privileges. Before Democrats took their seats, Republicans ended the governor’s control of election boards, withdrew the office’s ability to make appointments to the state school board and the University of North Carolina’s Board of Trustees, slashed the overall number of jobs appointed by the governor from 1,500 to 300, and made Cabinet nominations subject to state Senate approval.

Rather than accept the will of the voters, who empowered the new governor to take the reins of the state government, Republicans entrenched their influence and undermined gubernatorial authority in an effort to avoid and undermine democratic accountability.

At the time, this anti-democratic maneuvering appeared exceptional to North Carolina. But in the wake of major Democratic victories in the 2018 midterm elections, it seems it was the canary in the coal mine.

Democrats won important victories in Republican-controlled Midwestern states that backed Donald Trump for president, in many instances, flipping the control of state legislatures. Democrats in Michigan won close races for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state while Democrats in Wisconsin won races for governor—sweeping incumbent Scott Walker out of office<https://slate.com/business/2018/11/scott-walker-lost-wisconsin-education-unions.html>—and attorney general. Instead of allowing power to shift without contest, Republicans in both states are now fighting rear-guard actions to strip authority from these offices, using “lame duck” sessions to launch what are effectively legislative coup d’états.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

Blockbuster Must-Read from BuzzFeed: “Inside The North Carolina Republican Vote Machine: Cash, Pills — And Ballots”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102644>
Posted on December 5, 2018 7:16 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102644> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

BuzzFeed:<https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/dowless-britt-inside-north-carolina-absentee-ballot-machine>

The allegations that Republicans tampered with absentee ballots<https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tasneemnashrulla/north-carolina-election-absentee-ballots-lisa-britt> in a close North Carolina election<https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tasneemnashrulla/north-carolina-absentee-ballots-fraud-allegations> represent the most serious federal election tampering case in years, one that allegedly stole votes from elderly black voters in the state’s rural south.

Now two women intimately involved<https://popular.info/p/exclusive-absentee-ballot-envelopes> with McCrae Dowless’s absentee ballot machine have revealed to BuzzFeed News its grim and chaotic workings, in which Dowless tracked votes on yellow paper and paid his workers, including family members, from stacks of cash, which some used to keep themselves high on opioids while they worked.
The accounts of the women, Jessica Karen Dowless and Lisa Britt, add significant new details to those that have come out from investigators and other news reports, as the state election board considers whether it should order a new election between Republican Mark Harris and Democrat Dan McCready. The women, both related to McCrae Dowless, paint a picture of American political chicanery at its lowest levels — though with sweeping consequences both for voters allegedly denied the franchise, and for the outcome of a pivotal national election, which Republican Mark Harris won by 905 votes.

Jessica Dowless described the scene in the small office at the intersection of two highways in Bethel, North Carolina, where she worked on Harris’s behalf for the last two months as chaotic. One worker, she said, “was so fucking high the other day she passed out at the fucking computer.” One of the workers who collected absentee ballots from residents was a “pill head,” she said.

Jessica Dowless, whose husband is distantly related to McCrae Dowless, described herself as a “housewife [who] needed a part time job” said she was one of about six employees. She often worked six days a week tallying the number of Democrats and Republicans who had recently voted. However, she explained, there were times when she did not quite understand what she was doing or what the grand purpose was.

She did, though, say that campaign workers delivered sealed absentee ballots from the homes of people who requested them to McCrae Dowless’s office — though North Carolina law forbids third parties from handling those ballots.
She said she spent her time tracking the number of ballots sent in to the county board of elections — and then tally up the number that were collected by employees of McCrae Dowless, who The Washington Post reported<https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/north-carolina-election-fraud-investigation-centers-on-operative-with-criminal-history-who-worked-for-gop-congressional-candidate/2018/12/03/7b270a90-f6aa-11e8-8c9a-860ce2a8148f_story.html?utm_term=.3541eee9c30b> would keep the Harris campaign updated on the latest figures.

Jessica Dowless said she would also note voters’ race and party affiliation….

“Mark Harris was writing him checks left and right,” Jessica Dowless said, referring to McCrae, although she said she never saw the checks. McCrae, she said, “paid me a certain amount in cash and then the Board of Elections paid me the rest.”

It is unclear if the county Board of Elections actually paid her, or for what. Bladen County Elections Director Cynthia Shaw stepped down last week, amid a state inquiry into the 2018 results, opting to leave one month before her scheduled retirement, according to WRAL.<https://www.wral.com/bladen-elections-official-leaves-job/18037772/>

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Posted in campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>, chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>

Election Data Services: “Due to many close contests and uncalled races, poster printing is delayed”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102641>
Posted on December 5, 2018 7:11 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102641> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Nothing says 2018 like the warning on the order form<https://www.electiondataservices.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/ERP2018Order-Form.pdf> for the EDS Election Results Poster for 2018.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

100,000 Missing Votes in Georgia Lt. Governor’s Race Prompt Serious Questions About Integrity of DRE Voting Machines, and a Lawsuit<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102639>
Posted on December 5, 2018 7:08 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102639> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Jim Galloway<https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/time-solve-the-mystery-the-100-000-missing-votes/nEYXrcGW8et8esyVL6W4QM/> for the AJC:

With each down-ballot contest, more voters bleed away. In election after election, graphs of the phenomenon resemble a gentle, downward slope.

That’s not what happened on Nov. 6. The pattern changed rather suspiciously.

In the race for governor, 3,939,328 voters cast a ballot. But in the No. 2 race for lieutenant governor, 159,024 of those voters – about 4 percent — dropped away.

Then, in the next race down, 103,290 of those supposedly lost voters suddenly regained their interest and voted in the secretary of state contest. From there, the traditional downward slope of disappearing voters resumes.

[photo]

News release:<https://myemail.constantcontact.com/We-are-Contesting-Georgia-s-Lt--Governor-Election.html?soid=1109272168263&aid=tvSc-nps-7A>

On Friday night, Coalition for Good Governance and three Georgia voters filed a  lawsuit<https://coaltionforgoodgovernance.sharefile.com/d-s64172abe68a4edda> to challenge the results of the Lieutenant Governor’s race in the election held on November 6, 2018. The large number of missing votes and other significant election irregularities form the basis for the election contest. The lawsuit alleges that an accurate result in the second-highest office on the ballot cannot be determined because of flaws and malfunctions in the electronic voting system. The plaintiffs are seeking a prompt second election for the office, conducted on an auditable election system. The lawsuit names Secretary of State Robyn Crittenden and the Election Boards of Fulton, Gwinnett, and DeKalb Counties as defendants.

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Posted in election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
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