[EL] FW: Cal primary turnout; anyone know how the six counties fared that mailed a ballot to every voter?

Thu Jun 7 14:50:36 PDT 2018

While talking turnout in California, I thought notable to share that the
latest projections from San Francisco is that about 50% of registered
voters will vote - a big leap from June primaries in 2012 and 2014 and
similar to the November 2014 general election. The special election for
mayor with eight candidates in a ranked choice voting election seems to be
a key factor as more San Francisco voters are recording a vote for mayor
than they are for any other office including governor, and any ballot
measure.

Excerpt from a news story
<http://abc7news.com/politics/approximately-80000-ballots-left-to-count-in-sf-mayors-race/3570656/>
:

<<The Director of Elections says he was surprised by the turnout in
Tuesday's primary, which he estimates at 50 percent. "What we experienced
yesterday in San Francisco was essentially like a presidential election
election day." The California Secretary of State's office has issued a
preliminary report on voter turnout and marked San Francisco with 32
percent, the highest of all nine Bay Area counties.>>

Fun fact: San Francisco voters were about *eight times more likely* to
invalidate their vote in the "simple" single-choice ballot used to elect
the governor than with the "complicated" ranked-choice ballot used to elect
the mayor.

Rob Richie

On Thu, Jun 7, 2018 at 5:37 PM, Douglas Johnson <djohnson at ndcresearch.com>
wrote:

> I would agree that PDI’s estimate of 31.5% statewide turnout will be
> close, though possibly a bit high.
>
>
>
> To give a sense of why CA counting takes so long, LA County counted
> 952,000 ballots on election day, and they announced yesterday that they
> have 499,000 provisional and by-mail ballots left to count (plus whatever
> mail ballots arrive today but were postmarked on Tuesday – California law
> says mail ballots postmarked on election day and arriving within 3 days
> must be counted). Orange County counted about 380,000 ballots on Tuesday
> and had 195,000 ballots left to count (plus whatever mail ballots arrived
> Wednesday and Thursday). California won’t even post the statewide report of
> how many ballots are left to count until later today or Friday at the
> earliest.
>
>
>
> This is not a slam on the very hard-working County Registrar staff who are
> putting in extremely long shifts and hard hours to get everything processed
> and counted. It’s the result of all the election reforms CA has passed to
> increase voter participation and CA voters’ decisions to overwhelmingly
> prefer the slower-to-process by-mail voting and to tend to wait until the
> last possible moment to send in mail ballots. Most mail ballots received by
> last Friday or Saturday were counted first on election day – what’s left
> are last-minute mail ballots and provisional ballots.
>
>
>
> Side note: I suspect lots of influential Sacramento people are scrambling
> for their rule books today to see what happens if a State Board of
> Equalization member is indicted, given Santa Monica Councilmember Tony
> Vasquez’s apparent “top Democrat” finish
> <https://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/board-of-equalization/district/3> in the
> heavily-Democratic District 3 despite the pending LA County District
> Attorney investigation
> <http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-santa-monica-da-review-widens-20180129-story.html>
> of him.
>
>
>
>    - Doug
>
>
>
> Douglas Johnson, Ph.D.
>
> Fellow, Rose Institute of State and Local Government
>
> at Claremont McKenna College
>
> douglas.johnson at cmc.edu
>
> direct: 310-200-2058
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> *On
> Behalf Of *Eric McGhee
> *Sent:* Thursday, June 7, 2018 1:53 PM
> *To:* law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> *Subject:* [EL] FW: Cal primary turnout; anyone know how the six counties
> fared that mailed a ballot to every voter?
>
>
>
> Accidentally left off the rest of the list from this response.  Forwarding
> in case the answer is of general interest.
>
>
>
> *From:* Eric McGhee
> *Sent:* Thursday, June 07, 2018 1:37 PM
> *To:* 'Richard Winger' <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
> *Subject:* RE: [EL] Cal primary turnout; anyone know how the six counties
> fared that mailed a ballot to every voter?
>
>
>
> Hi, Richard:
>
>
>
> It was 5 counties (Madera, Napa, Nevada, Sacramento, and San Mateo).  See
> here for all the gory details:  http://www.sos.ca.gov/
> elections/voters-choice-act/
>
>
>
> As for whether turnout increased, Thad Kousser, Mindy Romero and I are
> going to be looking at that very question.  But it’s too early to offer an
> answer now, especially for all-VBM county that have more than the usual
> burden of validating signatures.  And the vote center counties may have a
> few more conditional (i.e., same-day) registrants than a normal county,
> since they make it easier to take advantage of that option.  So that will
> delay counting as well.
>
>
>
> Cheers,
>
> Eric
>
>
>
> *From:* Law-election [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
> <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>] *On Behalf Of *Richard
> Winger
> *Sent:* Thursday, June 07, 2018 10:28 AM
> *To:* Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
> *Subject:* [EL] Cal primary turnout; anyone know how the six counties
> fared that mailed a ballot to every voter?
>
>
>
> At the California primary two days ago, I believe that six counties mailed
> a ballot to every registered voter.  That included Sacramento and San Mateo
> Counties, I believe.  Does anyone know any information about whether
> turnout was higher for those six counties than for the state as a whole?
>
>
>
> I saw a news story that says Political Data thinks the statewide primary
> turnout was 31.5% of registered voters.  Has anyone seen any other figure?
> Thank you.
>
>
>
> Richard Winger 415-922-9779 PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
>
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>

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