[EL] CA Republicans MIGHT (or might not) be outnumbered by "No Party Preference"

Wed May 30 17:15:47 PDT 2018

We've passed that point in Oregon over a year ago. Eric has work on the same date with me, in the automatic registration system in Oregon has certainly had hundreds of thousands of voters as unaffiliated.

That's the nature of the beast. Now it's up to the established parties and candidates to appeal to those registrant.

https://data.oregon.gov/Administrative/Voter-Registration-Change-Over-Time/2ppg-zt4s <https://data.oregon.gov/Administrative/Voter-Registration-Change-Over-Time/2ppg-zt4s>

Paul Gronke
Professor, Reed College
Director, Early Voting Information Center
http://earlyvoting.net

General Inquiries: Laura Swann swannla at reed.edu

Media Inquiries: Kevin Myers myersk at reed.edu

> On May 30, 2018, at 3:51 PM, Eric McGhee <mcghee at ppic.org> wrote:
> 
> Regardless whether we’re actually at the tipping point, the trends are most definitely in that direction.  Republican registration in CA has been dropping off a cliff in the last 10 years after decades of only a very gradual decline.  (See the first graph in this briefing piece I did for PPIC: http://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-political-landscape/ <http://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-political-landscape/>).  In fact, in the last official report of registration—which came out before the roll-out of the new registration system—GOP and no party preference was separated by just 28,649 people.  That’s rounding error in a state of 19 million registered voters.  And GOP registration rates among the youngest registrants are in the teens, suggesting we haven’t seen the bottom yet.  To be fair, a lot of these no party preference registrants lean toward the GOP, and higher GOP turnout compensates for some of that decline.  But still.
> 
> As far as the data issue is concerned,  my understanding is that the initial batch of registrations sent from DMV was immediately flagged and corrected, and that party preference has been accurately coded in all the new registrations since.  So it seems unlikely to me that the new system is driving Paul’s result.
> 
> Of course, nothing is official until we get the official numbers. But if we haven’t hit the crossover point now, it’s coming real soon.  It’s even more inevitable than the Warriors beating the Cavs.
> 
> From: Law-election [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu <mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>] On Behalf Of Douglas Johnson
> Sent: Wednesday, May 30, 2018 9:37 AM
> To: 'Rick Hasen' <rhasen at law.uci.edu <mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>>; 'Election Law Listserv' <law-election at uci.edu <mailto:law-election at uci.edu>>
> Subject: Re: [EL] CA Republicans MIGHT (or might not) be outnumbered by "No Party Preference"
> 
> FYI, be careful about relying on the registration counts from California, especially whether the ‘No Party Preference’ voters exceed Republican voters yet. The state’s new automatic registration system has been malfunctioning: voters who are already registered but who update their voter registration data at the DMV (with a new address, changing party, etc.) apparently gets registered both with the newly-updated information and again, as a 2nd registered voter, with the same info except listed as a “no party preference” voter.
> 
> The LA Times has the details: http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-motor-voter-registrations-errors-20180524-story.html <http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-motor-voter-registrations-errors-20180524-story.html>
> 
> I have not been able to find any information on this in a quick search of the Secretary of State’s website. If anyone knows of the official explanation, or statistics on how many of these issues exist and how many have been cleaned up already, please share!
> 
> -          Doug
> 
> Douglas Johnson, Ph.D.
> Fellow, Rose Institute of State and Local Government
> at Claremont McKenna College
> douglas.johnson at cmc.edu <mailto:douglas.johnson at cmc.edu>
> direct: 310-200-2058
> 
> 
> 
> From: Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu <mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>> On Behalf Of Rick Hasen
> Sent: Wednesday, May 30, 2018 8:23 AM
> To: Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu <mailto:law-election at uci.edu>>
> Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 5/30/18
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “Independent voters now outnumber Republicans in California” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=99237>
> Posted on May 30, 2018 8:09 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=99237> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
> SacBee reports. <http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article212139534.html>
> <image001.png> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D99237&title=%E2%80%9CIndependent%20voters%20now%20outnumber%20Republicans%20in%20California%E2%80%9D>
> Posted in Uncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
> 
> 
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