[EL] 1.7 million ballots still left to count in California

[Douglas Johnson]

Before anyone gets too far down the road of analyzing turnout numbers,
remember that California still has 1.7 million ballots left to count as of
November 19th, including 420,00 in Los Angeles County alone. You can track
the county by county "unprocessed ballot" status here:
https://vote.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status

 

*	Doug

 

Douglas Johnson, Ph.D.

Fellow, Rose Institute of State and Local Government

at Claremont McKenna College

douglas.johnson at cmc.edu

direct: 310-200-2058

 

 

From: Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> On Behalf
Of Charles H Stewart
Sent: Monday, November 19, 2018 4:09 PM
To: Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
Subject: [EL] Seats won by closing time

 

Earlier today, in the discussion of the Toobin piece, several people
remarked on the fact that the magnitude of the Democratic win in the House
was only clear once California's results were reported --- and even then,
we've had to wait for all the California votes to be reported.

 

This prompted me to do the following analysis.  I took the election returns
from all the House districts (thanks to David Leip's wonderful website) and
mapped them onto the closing times of the polls for the states involved.  I
then produced two graphs:  (1) the % of votes and seats won by the
Democrats, broken down by the poll-closing times of the states, and (2) the
cumulative votes and seats won, broken down by the poll-closing times of the
states. (Please don't e-mail me to remind me that Oregon, Colorado, and
Washington really don't have poll-closing times.)

 

This graph confirms the observations.  As the evening goes on, the results
become more Democratic.  Not only that, early in the evening, Democrats
tended to under-perform in the win column, compared to the votes they were
receiving.  As the evening went on, they caught up.  Also, because this
analysis assumes that all the votes were reported on election night, when in
fact they weren't, the "west-coast effect" (I think it's more than just
California) can be seen to sneak up on people.

 

Enjoy the graphs.

 

Charles

 



 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------

Charles Stewart III

Kenan Sahin Distinguished Professor of Political Science

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Cambridge, Massachusetts   02139

617-253-3127

cstewart at mit.edu <mailto:cstewart at mit.edu> 

 

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