[EL] Toobin and House Results -- Re: ELB News and Commentary 11/18/18

Wed Nov 21 00:56:25 PST 2018

Coming to all this late

I don’t see how a seats-votes analysis is useful.  The national popular
vote does not exist.  It is an aggregation of votes from different
districts in different states.   Vitescin sn uncompetitive race in Texas
are not the same as votes in a competitive race in califiornia...or even
another part of Texas.   Feinstein voters in CA might not be Warner voters
here in VA

On Tue, Nov 20, 2018 at 14:12 Pildes, Rick <rick.pildes at nyu.edu> wrote:

> Jeff means to be referring to votes that were not cast in the Senate race
> in Broward, presumably because of confusing ballot design, rather than
> votes cast but not counted.
>
>
>
> Best,
>
> Rick
>
>
>
> Richard H. Pildes
>
> Sudler Family Professor of Constitutional Law
>
> NYU School of Law, Vanderbilt Hall 507
>
> 40 Washington Square South, NY, NY 10012
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=40+Washington+Square+South,+NY,+NY+10012&entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> 212 998-6377
>
> Fax: 212-995-4082
>
>
>
> *From:* Law-election [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu]
> *On Behalf Of *Hess, Doug
> *Sent:* Tuesday, November 20, 2018 1:59 PM
> *To:* Jeff Hauser; Larry Levine
>
>
> *Cc:* Election Law Listserv
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Toobin and House Results -- Re: ELB News and
> Commentary 11/18/18
>
>
>
> Jeff, those are house races, but I assume votes for senate races are
> counted? I.e., there could certainly be an effect on turnout or confusion,
> but surely the senate races are still on the ballot in those districts.
>
>
>
> Douglas R Hess
>
> Assistant Professor of Political Science
>
> Grinnell College
> 1210 Park Street
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=1210+Park+Street&entry=gmail&source=g>, Carnegie
> Hall #309
> Grinnell, IA 50112
>
> phone: 641-269-4383
>
>
>
> http://www.douglasrhess.com
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.douglasrhess.com_&d=DwMGaQ&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=i1mRQZ4scnBoXf75ao5oXwt7g3JXpADIAAaKlhYu58Q&s=TF6pEKUgBM8EwiMXPC-n3_tYOOc0ZBTLvDR2ieX9WtQ&e=>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Jeff Hauser [mailto:jeffhauser at gmail.com]
> *Sent:* Tuesday, November 20, 2018 12:04 PM
> *To:* Larry Levine <larrylevine at earthlink.net>
> *Cc:* Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Toobin and House Results -- Re: ELB News and
> Commentary 11/18/18
>
>
>
> Larry, there were no votes counted at all in FL-10, 14, 21, and 24. You
> can see that at Cook Political's vote tracker:
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__docs.google.com_spreadsheets_d_1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH-5Fg7IkpC0_htmlview-3Fusp-3Dsharing-26sle-3Dtrue&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=l5rEBXgkd1AxBJq-WWuqj7CVS1cPSqY0aMwEvdIkz_Q&s=WtUzithPlz57RBaiUhOZHJLgr_qhWz50VXL5RPMtY-A&e=>
>
>
>
> Or check hereL
> https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/FederalOffices/USRepresentative
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__floridaelectionwatch.gov_FederalOffices_USRepresentative&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=l5rEBXgkd1AxBJq-WWuqj7CVS1cPSqY0aMwEvdIkz_Q&s=288dVpC2k--_vazaNPx6KbaKiZ2SV7nnuwKjir-T9uY&e=>
>
>
>
> Explanation of the ballot design implications for Nelson here:
> http://mcimaps.com/browards-poor-ballot-design/
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__mcimaps.com_browards-2Dpoor-2Dballot-2Ddesign_&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=l5rEBXgkd1AxBJq-WWuqj7CVS1cPSqY0aMwEvdIkz_Q&s=7205sIGcwm3naQSCGZsRdBCI-PlTb18ZqM1UzXywfaY&e=>
>
>
>
> It's pretty fascinating how obscure these issues seem to be to people who
> follow election administration issues closely.
>
>
>
> On Mon, Nov 19, 2018 at 11:18 PM <larrylevine at earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> I may have misunderstood Jeff’s message. I read it as saying no votes were
> counted in those districts. I think it was the size of the numbers that
> cause the misunderstanding. I supposed it could be argued that the lack of
> campaigning in those districts caused a lower turnout. But the visibility
> of the two statewide races would argue against that.
>
> Larry
>
>
>
> *From:* Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> *On
> Behalf Of *Smith, Brad
> *Sent:* Monday, 19 November 2018 7:23 PM
> *To:* Jeff Hauser <jeffhauser at gmail.com>; David Segal <
> davidadamsegal at gmail.com>
> *Cc:* Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Toobin and House Results -- Re: ELB News and
> Commentary 11/18/18
>
>
>
> How does that cause an undervote for Senate? They count the votes for
> Senate, just not for the uncontested race.
>
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=303+E.+Broad+St.+%0D%0A+Columbus,+OH+43215&entry=gmail&source=g>
>
>
>
> *Bradley A. Smith*
>
> *Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault*
>
> *   Professor of Law*
>
> *Capital University Law School*
>
> *303 E. Broad St.
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=303+E.+Broad+St.+%0D%0A+Columbus,+OH+43215&entry=gmail&source=g>*
>
> *Columbus, OH 43215
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=303+E.+Broad+St.+%0D%0A+Columbus,+OH+43215&entry=gmail&source=g>*
>
> *614.236.6317*
>
> *http://law.capital.edu/faculty/bios/bsmith.aspx
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__law.capital.edu_faculty_bios_bsmith.aspx&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=l5rEBXgkd1AxBJq-WWuqj7CVS1cPSqY0aMwEvdIkz_Q&s=-0jBqqYCAa75SZH7sXs8lr-HQPUyoXgPCmtE3v99yxE&e=>*
> ------------------------------
>
> *From:* Law-election [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on
> behalf of Jeff Hauser [jeffhauser at gmail.com]
> *Sent:* Monday, November 19, 2018 9:43 PM
> *To:* David Segal
> *Cc:* Election Law Listserv
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Toobin and House Results -- Re: ELB News and
> Commentary 11/18/18
>
> One of many bizarre Florida laws means that zero votes are counted in 4
> deep blue districts where the GOP couldn't muster a candidate. This odd
> rule is not only a proximate cause of the FL-24 undervote for Senate (and
> thus Scott's victory, most likely), but probably renders 800,000 or some FL
> Dem voters invisible in these stats. (And maybe ~300,000 Republicans)
>
>
>
> On Mon, Nov 19, 2018, 11:56 AM David Segal <davidadamsegal at gmail.com
> wrote:
>
> Dems as of now are up by 3.3 million in CA and 8.5 million over all across
> the country.
>
>
>
> Hard to assess, but looks like few hundred thousand of the 3.3 million
> vote gap could be attributed to top-two races w/o Rs.
>
>
>
> There were 4 D v D generals, 4 D v I/G generals, and 1 R v R generals. But
> most of these are races where an "opposite-party" challenger would have
> been getting low double digit percentages.
>
>
>
>
>
> D5
>
> 155k(D) - 42k(I)
>
>
>
> D6
>
> 129k(D) - 30k(D)
>
>
>
> D8
>
> 93k(R) - 61k(R)
>
>
>
> D13
>
> 246k(D) - 32k(G)
>
>
>
> D20
>
> 156k(D) - 37k(I)
>
>
>
> D27
>
> 144k(D) - 37k(D)
>
>
>
> D34
>
> 94k(D) - 35k(G)
>
>
>
> D40
>
> 78k(D) - 22k(D)
>
>
>
> D44
>
> 84k(D) - 37k(D)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Nov 19, 2018 at 8:31 AM John Tanner <john.k.tanner at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> Getting back to the House vote, does California skew those results?
> Certainly in the Senate, there were two Democrats who split the entire
> vote.  I don’t know whether there were similar House contests
>
>
>
> On Nov 19, 2018, at 12:03 AM, <larrylevine at earthlink.net> <
> larrylevine at earthlink.net> wrote:
>
>
>
> I was attempting to point to the irrelevance of citing a national vote
> total in races in which that number has no relevance. Apparently, I missed.
> However, I believe one of the purposes for the Electoral College was just
> this circumstance – to protect smaller states from the dominance of larger
> states. Another purpose was to shield against the election of a certain
> kind of candidate to be President, which doesn’t seem t have worked to well
> this time around.
>
> https://www.historycentral.com/elections/Electoralcollgewhy.html
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__linkprotect.cudasvc.com_url-3Fa-3Dhttps-253a-252f-252fwww.historycentral.com-252felections-252fElectoralcollgewhy.html-26c-3DE-2C1-2CBCg-5F5G7fqaHpHuhWRnVC14ZWdccMSGcjwAL13cSUppUMK5TLoZwIbwoEh3bhzYsHoM7yyE0tZmt0SSJcSXnzHqd-5F1suuWL3Tb-2DyzNnF2dgqknx8JxgcT-5FdyUdGU-2C-26typo-3D1&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=l5rEBXgkd1AxBJq-WWuqj7CVS1cPSqY0aMwEvdIkz_Q&s=OrBOXK3w1LM36Qeo-k_RyMLQahjnLu7NoXXsxgr_ZD8&e=>
>
> Larry
>
>
>
> *From:* Fredric Woocher <fwoocher at strumwooch.com>
> *Sent:* Sunday, 18 November 2018 8:40 PM
> *To:* larrylevine at earthlink.net; jboppjr at aol.com; davidadamsegal at gmail.com;
> mark.scarberry at pepperdine.edu
> *Cc:* law-election at uci.edu
> *Subject:* RE: [EL] Toobin and House Results -- Re: ELB News and
> Commentary 11/18/18
>
>
>
> I don’t get your point here, Larry.  So what if Clinton’s entire margin
> was from California?  If one objects to the electoral college because it
> does not count everyone’s vote equally, why is 2016 not a legitimate
> example of the objection that the vote of 3 million Californians was
> overcome by the votes of 250,000 people in Montana and Wyoming (or whatever
> the vote margins were there)?
>
>
>
> Fredric D. Woocher
>
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=10940+Wilshire+Blvd.,+Ste.+2000+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+Los+Angeles,+CA+90024&entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=10940+Wilshire+Blvd.,+Ste.+2000+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+Los+Angeles,+CA+90024&entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> Strumwasser & Woocher LLP
>
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=10940+Wilshire+Blvd.,+Ste.+2000+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+Los+Angeles,+CA+90024&entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> 10940 Wilshire Blvd., Ste. 2000
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=10940+Wilshire+Blvd.,+Ste.+2000+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+Los+Angeles,+CA+90024&entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> Los Angeles, CA 90024
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=10940+Wilshire+Blvd.,+Ste.+2000+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+Los+Angeles,+CA+90024&entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> fwoocher at strumwooch.com
>
> (310) 576-1233
>
>
>
> *From:* Law-election [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
> <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>] *On Behalf Of *
> larrylevine at earthlink.net
> *Sent:* Sunday, November 18, 2018 7:18 PM
> *To:* jboppjr at aol.com; davidadamsegal at gmail.com;
> mark.scarberry at pepperdine.edu
> *Cc:* law-election at uci.edu
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Toobin and House Results -- Re: ELB News and
> Commentary 11/18/18
>
>
>
> Agree, Jim, but still find it curiously interesting. What distorts the
> whole picture is California. It’s kind of like every time I hear someone
> say Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 3 million votes I recall that
> was her margin in California, so they just about broke even in the rest of
> the country. It comes up often when I do presentations and someone
> challenges the electoral college and uses the 2016 popular vote as
> justification for changing. I tell them they have a right to not like the
> electoral college, but 2016 is not a place to rest the argument.
>
> Larry
>
>
>
> *From:* Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> *On
> Behalf Of *jboppjr at aol.com
> *Sent:* Sunday, 18 November 2018 6:46 PM
> *To:* davidadamsegal at gmail.com; mark.scarberry at pepperdine.edu
> *Cc:* law-election at uci.edu
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Toobin and House Results -- Re: ELB News and
> Commentary 11/18/18
>
>
>
> I find the comparison between seats won and the total nation vote per
> party to be meaningless. We dont award seats based on the national vote per
> party , but by district, so campaigns are conducted by district, not to
> generate a maximum national vote.
>
> In addition, candidates matter more in District elections while they would
> be substantial less significant if the national vote count determined who
> won. If fact, Tip O'Neill's maxim that all politics is local would be
> repealed.
>
> So judging district-based elections by national proportional results is
> incoherent and invalid.
>
> Jim Bopp
> ------------------------------
>
> On Sunday, November 18, 2018 David Segal <davidadamsegal at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> It'd be what you'd want taken in isolation (and I support systems that are
> more likely to yield proportionality than the current one) but Toobin
> should have contextualized the stat in the asymmetry relative to what
> happens under the current districts for Republicans.
>
>
>
> Repubs won 50.4% of the two parties' popular vote in 2016 but took 55.4%
> of seats.
>
>
>
> 52.9% vs 56.8% in 2014
>
>
>
> 49.3% vs 53.7% in 2012
>
>
>
> And also could have been spoken to in the context of the longer historical
> norm that Nicholas mentions. (Which isn't necessarily a positive feature of
> our system, and could be corrected for through PR.)
>
>
>
> On Sun, Nov 18, 2018 at 8:22 PM Mark Scarberry <
> mark.scarberry at pepperdine.edu> wrote:
>
> Jeffrey Toobin, in the New Yorker article, writes:
>
>
>
> "Even the good news from the election comes with a caveat, however.
> According to an analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice, Democrats won
> the over-all popular vote in the four hundred and thirty-five races for the
> House of Representatives by about nine per cent, but they managed to
> capture only a relatively narrow majority of seats. This is because the
> district lines are so egregiously gerrymandered, especially in states fully
> controlled by Republicans."
>
>
>
> Assuming my math is correct:
>
>
>
> A 9% margin would put the percentages at 54.5 to 45.5 (leaving aside third
> parties). Out of 435 seats, 54.5% would be 237, and 45.5% would be 198. It
> appears that, with a few races still to be decided, Democrats will have at
> least 232 seats and Republicans will have at least 198. If the five other
> raises split evenly, the division will be 234 or 235 Democrats, and 200 or
> 201 Republicans. Is this particularly disproportionate?
>
>
>
> Mark
>
>
>
> Prof. Mark S. Scarberry
>
> Pepperdine Univ. School of Law
>
>
>
> On Sun, Nov 18, 2018 at 4:09 PM, Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu> wrote:
>
>
>
> ...
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Jeffrey Toobin Expresses Some Optimism About Voting Rights
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__linkprotect.cudasvc.com_url-3Fa-3Dhttps-253a-252f-252felectionlawblog.org-252f-253fp-253d102371-26c-3DE-2C1-2C-5FK9uCQmIVCDNV9lYfJrBXWoiB3obz5Uy7QCAFNwK7IRySAYCWNlVzWPdf-2Dx3Lmvg90sNVWti3gMkMx5urJkfYJH7bKcsE4GCPhwgVHcP5zSOIw-2C-2C-26typo-3D1&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=l5rEBXgkd1AxBJq-WWuqj7CVS1cPSqY0aMwEvdIkz_Q&s=1ZGUCAe8QkHb_n0w0hWhyeFguEJCljztxxa3b_tsxOM&e=>
>
> Posted on November 18, 2018 3:17 pm
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__linkprotect.cudasvc.com_url-3Fa-3Dhttps-253a-252f-252felectionlawblog.org-252f-253fp-253d102371-26c-3DE-2C1-2CTlWZW1Pb3BVxgqoA43K6qkLx3lgC3Lrxoa0LNPQGpSdHTQdS3F12-2DML5WZnuZ8w-5F9dkrLQBr-2DYJg7x8gvx4EVLRNANxbrORU2wvAoQM8MGPE0Ixj5w-2C-2C-26typo-3D1&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=l5rEBXgkd1AxBJq-WWuqj7CVS1cPSqY0aMwEvdIkz_Q&s=rgyEMp54Bu6lamM-nG2zdVuYABeIr19urWeBha03Hxw&e=>
>  by *Rick Hasen*
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__linkprotect.cudasvc.com_url-3Fa-3Dhttps-253a-252f-252felectionlawblog.org-252f-253fauthor-253d3-26c-3DE-2C1-2CHDrbrCYMmUT6grm90oxkL7o79XaBD-2DXwBfzMDPp-2D5W9MJB22wnijfLDW03vm0zwv1yabP2cWblapfL5s1kwxUQcln3pyWUejb0jh3uVja-2Du7mDo0t1M-2C-26typo-3D1&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=l5rEBXgkd1AxBJq-WWuqj7CVS1cPSqY0aMwEvdIkz_Q&s=X05Bp8pjQDl2rSdrKSqjhHfIydIWhyRBPVj13Rh7_qg&e=>
>
> Not so sure I agree with this one
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.newyorker.com_magazine_2018_11_26_how-2Dvoting-2Drights-2Dfared-2Din-2Dthe-2Dmidterms&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=l5rEBXgkd1AxBJq-WWuqj7CVS1cPSqY0aMwEvdIkz_Q&s=yjy8fzhJwKHzm7Cm2jY4ZegXHsC0pwQFTTv5_b96iY4&e=>
> .
>
> Posted in The Voting Wars
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.addtoany.com_share-23url-3Dhttps-253A-252F-252Felectionlawblog.org-252F-253Fp-253D102371-26title-3DJeffrey-2520Toobin-2520Expresses-2520Some-2520Optimism-2520About-2520Voting-2520Rights&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=l5rEBXgkd1AxBJq-WWuqj7CVS1cPSqY0aMwEvdIkz_Q&s=3jONnSVY-lsZ8ofuhviY7ZuDPK1clYL5eCKfYuXFTqA&e=>
>
>
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.addtoany.com_share-23url-3Dhttps-253A-252F-252Felectionlawblog.org-252F-253Fp-253D102371-26title-3DJeffrey-2520Toobin-2520Expresses-2520Some-2520Optimism-2520About-2520Voting-2520Rights&d=DwMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=l5rEBXgkd1AxBJq-WWuqj7CVS1cPSqY0aMwEvdIkz_Q&s=3jONnSVY-lsZ8ofuhviY7ZuDPK1clYL5eCKfYuXFTqA&e=>
>
> ...
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-- 
Mark Rush
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