[EL] Re; RCV in Maine and Third-Party Spoilers
Rob Richie
rr at fairvote.org
Fri Nov 30 11:37:53 PST 2018
Thus “batch elimination” is done only when it has no chance to affect
outcome. See our explanation and comparison to non-batch RCV results (using
cast vote records before final canvass with adjusted vote totals).
https://www.fairvote.org/what_is_batch_elimination_and_how_did_it_affect_maine_s_ranked_choice_voting_races
-Rob
On Friday, November 30, 2018, Hess, Doug <HESSDOUG at grinnell.edu> wrote:
> Here’s a question about the Maine RCV election: Why do they eliminate
> *two* instead of just one at a time? Given how close the election was in
> Round 1 *and* the large vote for the losing candidate, you could have had
> (albeit very unlikely) Poliquin win with 51.7% of the vote if all of Hoar’s
> votes had transferred to him.
>
>
>
> Granted, the probability of that happening in this situation approaches
> null, but you get the idea. Or am I missing something?
>
>
>
> If they do check for that, or even if they don’t, it would be great to
> know how the votes transferred by each eliminated candidate instead of both
> together. I haven’t checked their other RCV races.
>
>
>
> The table below is my arrangement of data from the Nov 26, 2018 file of
> certified results on the Maine SOS website. This means the totals are
> slightly larger than in Vladimir’s email, but the relationships are largely
> the same.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Douglas R Hess
>
> Assistant Professor of Political Science
>
> Grinnell College
> 1210 Park Street
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=1210+Park+Street&entry=gmail&source=g>, Carnegie
> Hall #309
> Grinnell, IA 50112
>
> phone: 641-269-4383
>
>
>
> http://www.douglasrhess.com
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Kogan, Vladimir [mailto:kogan.18 at osu.edu]
> *Sent:* Monday, November 26, 2018 8:08 PM
> *To:* Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org>
> *Cc:* law-election at UCI.EDU
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] RCV in Maine and Third-Party Spoilers
>
>
>
> Rob: Completely agree that off-cycle runoffs are horrible!
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Rob Richie [mailto:rr at fairvote.org <rr at fairvote.org>]
> *Sent:* Monday, November 26, 2018 9:00 PM
> *To:* Kogan, Vladimir
> *Cc:* law-election at UCI.EDU
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] RCV in Maine and Third-Party Spoilers
>
>
>
> I thought Vlad's email offers an opportunity to think why sometimes voters
> "exhaust" ballots with ranked choice voting or don't come back for runoff
> elections -- with, on the latter, the average drop inf participation in
> federal congressional runoffs this year being 47% of the first round, with
> half the runoff winners in fact earning fewer votes in the runoff than they
> did in the first round.
>
>
>
> Although it's perhaps fun to look at the new kid on the block (ranked
> choice voting), I thought i'd look at the old standards of runoffs through
> the eye of exhaustion - -specifically the Top Two elections in California
> this year.
>
>
>
> See some numbers below that I generated from the California Secretary of
> State's website. As of Nov. 26, with votes still being tallied
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__vote.sos.ca.gov_returns_governor&d=DwMGaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=toVAec3-Hd1lH-6OfgFj2QG2wvva5-kmJj0jrp32VbI&s=4XOeQxhf0TSSUpky2UH4GkXicW7q7zmSroDzQAaIB0s&e=>.
> you'll see votes for governor (a Democrat-Republican runoff), Secretary of
> State (a Democrat-Republican runoff), and Lt. Governor (a Democrat-Democrat
> runoff).
>
>
>
> My comparison isn't with the June preliminary round ("primary"), but
> within the same contest with voter reacting to the choices being offered to
> them. With the D-R runoff in statewide races, the dropoff from governor to
> those races is small. For Secretary of State, for example. it is only
> 1.53%. But for the D-D runoff for Lt. governor (and to a large, if lesser
> extent for US Senate), the dropoff is much bigger - 16.24% in the case of
> Lt. governor, or nearly 1.9 million votes.
>
>
>
> If you think about who is likely dropping off, it's almost certainly
> Republicans. If you generously use the Cox vote in the governor's race as a
> the baseline for Republicans, that means that more than 40% of Republican
> voters likely skipped the Lt. Governor race -- they indicated a "pox on
> both your houses."
>
>
>
> That is actually higher than the percentage of Maine independents who
> didn't indicate a Republican or Democrat as a backup preference. And I'm
> actually not surprised by that dropfff - there often is a core of third
> party and independent voters who really do think some version of "the
> lesser of 2 evils is still evil" or "don't encourage them with a vote."
>
>
>
> So, then, the question is whether those voters are "spoilers" or really
> "abstainers." Are they fundamentally different than the some 40% of Maine's
> eligible voters who didn't vote at all? I'd suggest not. Just like those
> non-voters, they were "in play" for the candidates, and the candidates in
> fact did do enough to earn the votes of almost two-thirds of the
> independent candidate backers. The fact that they didn't earn the rest is
> something they'll need to reflect on, just like they need to reflect on not
> inspiring so many potential voters to get to the polls in the first place.
>
>
>
> Speaking of runoffs as an alternative to RCV, I trust Vlad will keep an
> eye on the upcoming runoffs in Mississippi and Georgia. The Mississippi
> runoff turnout in the US Senate race may end up being pretty high , given
> the stakes -- we'll see. The Georgia turnout for next months' runoffs for
> secretary of state and another statewide office... not so much. You can be
> absolutely sure that a winner with RCV in the GA Secretary of State race
> this year would have won with a much larger number of votes than will end
> up being the case with runoffs.
>
>
>
> - Rob Richie
>
>
>
> CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR
>
> Gavin Newsom (D)
>
> 7,213,464
>
> John H. Cox (R)
>
> 4,481,280
>
> Total Votes
>
> 11,694,744
>
> CALIFORNIA SECRETARY OF STATE RACE
>
> Alex Padilla (D)
>
> 7,385,637
>
> Mark P. Meuser (R)
>
> 4,130,499
>
> Total votes
>
> 11,516,136
>
> Dropoff, votes
>
> 178,608
>
> 1.53%
>
> CALIFORNIA LT. GOVERNOR RACE
>
> Eleni Kounalakis (D)
>
> 5,542,766
>
> Ed Hernandez (D)
>
> 4,253,319
>
> Total votes
>
> 9,796,085
>
> Dropoff, votes
>
> 1,898,659
>
> 16.24%
>
> Dropoff of GOP Voters (est)
>
> 42.37%
>
> (lt. governor dropoff divided by Cox vote)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Nov 26, 2018 at 7:45 PM Kogan, Vladimir <kogan.18 at osu.edu> wrote:
>
> I wanted to flag the election results in Maine’s 2nd Congressional
> District, where ranked-choice voting was used. Four candidates ran — one
> Democrat, one Republican, two independents. Here are the results:
>
>
>
> *Round 1*
>
> *Round 2*
>
> *Candidate Names*
>
> *Votes*
>
> *Percentage*
>
> *Transfer*
>
> *Votes*
>
> *Percentage*
>
> *Transfer*
>
> Bond, Tiffany L.
>
> 16260
>
> 05.73%
>
> -16260
>
> 0
>
> 00.00%
>
> 0
>
> DEM Golden, Jared F.
>
> 128999
>
> 45.48%
>
> *10232*
>
> *139231*
>
> *50.53%*
>
> *0*
>
> Hoar, William R.S.
>
> 6753
>
> 02.38%
>
> -6753
>
> 0
>
> 00.00%
>
> 0
>
> REP Poliquin, Bruce
>
> *131631*
>
> *46.41%*
>
> *4695*
>
> 136326
>
> 49.47%
>
> 0
>
>
>
> Several things worth highlighting: (1) The “ballot exhaustion” rate was
> fairly low, about 2.8% of valid first-round votes; (2) the victor still did
> not win a majority of valid first-round votes; (3) by my calculation 35%
> (!) of voters who picked one of the independents as their #1 choice did not
> subsequently rank either the Democrat or Republican in a lower-ranked
> position.
>
>
>
> I bring this up in response to the argument that RCV is a solution to the
> problem of third-party spoilers (who syphon off enough votes from one
> major-party candidate to lose him/her the election). Of course, all of
> those 35% may not have voted at all had the independent candidates not run;
> or perhaps they would’ve voted for Bond or Hoar even in the absence of RCV
> (assuming, of course, that Bond and Hoar would’ve still run had the
> election not been held under RCV…). But I thought this was worth flagging.
>
>
>
> Note: This is not meant to be a general indictment of RCV or an argument
> that RCV is worse than the alternative.
>
>
>
> Vlad
>
>
>
> *Error! Filename not specified.*
> *Vladimir Kogan*, Associate Professor
> *Department of Political Science*
>
> 2004 Derby Hall | 154 N. Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=154+N.+Oval+Mall,+Columbus,+OH+43210&entry=gmail&source=g>
> -1373
> 510/415-4074 Mobile
>
> 614/292-9498 Office
>
> 614/292-1146 Fax
>
> http://u.osu.edu/kogan.18/
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> kogan.18 at osu.edu
>
> *Error! Filename not specified.*@vkoganosu
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__twitter.com_vkoganosu&d=DwMGaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=toVAec3-Hd1lH-6OfgFj2QG2wvva5-kmJj0jrp32VbI&s=Bcn8jGfoHw-0aLkLHassHRf5bLK_E2B7mhJuDwmCdks&e=>
>
>
>
>
>
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