[EL] ELB News and Commentary 10/20/18

[Rick Hasen]

“Georgia’s ‘exact match’ law could disenfranchise 909,540 eligible voters, my research finds”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101656>
Posted on October 20, 2018 7:59 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101656> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Ted Enamorado<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/20/georgias-exact-match-law-could-disenfranchise-3031802-eligible-voters-my-research-finds/?utm_term=.b911f3d96dc4> at the Monkey Cage:

That’s why I have spent the past three years helping to develop an algorithm<https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/fastLink/index.html> that uses probabilistic record linkage called “fastLink” that not only makes record linkage across data sets speedy and automated, but also tells the analyst how likely it is that an inexact match of two records is actually correct.

In a recent study<https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3214172> co-authored with colleagues Ben Fifield and Kosuke Imai, we apply the algorithm to the question of voter identification. The results raise serious concerns about Georgia’s exact match law — and its likelihood of preventing tens of thousands of valid voters from casting ballots.

Here’s how we did our research

We worked on linking two nationwide voter files from 2014 and 2015 collected by L2 Inc<https://www.l2political.com/products/data/>, a national nonpartisan firm that supplies voter data and related technology for campaigns. All active voters in 2014 appeared in the 2015 data set — meaning that we knew a true match always existed. But many records had typographical discrepancies preventing exact matches.

Our analysis found that the “exact match’’ approach would link only 66 percent of voters who were actually the same, correctly identifying about 91 million voters. In other words, “exact matching” would exclude nearly 40 million records that actually did refer to the same voter — disenfranchising quite a few Americans.
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Posted in election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>


Kansas: “Iconic Dodge City moves its only polling place outside town”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101654>
Posted on October 19, 2018 6:46 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101654> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

AP:<https://www.kansas.com/news/business/article220286260.html>

Access to the ballot box in November will be more difficult for some people in Dodge City, where Hispanics now make up 60 percent of its population and have remade an iconic Wild West town that once was the destination of cowboys and buffalo hunters who frequented the Long Branch Saloon.

At a time when many rural towns are slowly dying, the arrival of two massive meatpacking plants boosted Dodge City’s economy and transformed its demographics as immigrants from Mexico and other countries flooded in to fill those jobs.

But the city located 160 miles (257 kilometers) west of Wichita has only one polling site for its 27,000 residents. Since 2002, the lone site was at the civic center just blocks from the local country club — in the wealthy, white part of town. For this November’s election, local officials have moved it outside the city limits to a facility more than a mile from the nearest bus stop, citing road construction that blocked the previous site.
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Posted in election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>


“A Look at Where North Dakota’s Voter ID Controversy Stands”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101652>
Posted on October 19, 2018 6:36 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101652> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

NYT:<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/us/politics/north-dakota-voter-identification-registration.html>

Advocacy groups have been meeting with tribal leaders on all of North Dakota’s far-flung reservations, trying to figure out how to help voters get the addresses and identification they need through the process the state described. It’s a tall order.

One of the groups, Four Directions, came up with its own plan. In a letter to Secretary of State Al Jaeger, it suggested that tribal officials would be stationed at every voting location on the state’s reservations, ready to issue identification letters on tribal letterhead. They would use an established addressing system for rural areas to assign residential addresses on the spot.

Oliver and Barbara Semans, co-executive directors of Four Directions, wrote that they believed Mr. Jaeger had “no authority to prevent tribal governments from implementing this plan,” because “tribal governments have the inherent sovereignty to issue residential addresses to any tribal member who may lack such an address.” But they urged him to “publicly support” it.

Mr. Jaeger declined. “It is inappropriate for me to do so because it is a legal question that is beyond the authority of this office as to whether a sovereign tribe has those powers within their jurisdiction,” he wrote in a response that his office provided to The New York Times on Thursday.
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Posted in The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>


Upcoming So Cal Connected Episode on KCET Will Focus on Southern California Gerrymandering<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101649>
Posted on October 19, 2018 6:17 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101649> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Looking forward to watching this<https://www.kcet.org/shows/socal-connected/episodes/divide-and-conquer>

Release: “SOCAL CONNECTED, KCET’s Emmy® and Peabody® award-winning news documentary series for Southern Californians will premiere a new episode titled “Divide and Conquer” on Tues., Oct. 23 at 8 p.m. PT on KCET in  Southern California. Gerrymandering is one of the most effective tools to manipulate an election and guarantee a win. SOCAL CONNECTED profiles how some local governments have used political borders to dilute minorities’ power and what is being done about it.”
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Posted in redistricting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>


“Georgia Voting Begins Amid Accusations of Voter Suppression”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101647>
Posted on October 19, 2018 1:33 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101647> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

NYT:<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/us/politics/georgia-voter-suppression.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fpolitics&action=click&contentCollection=politics&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=5&pgtype=sectionfront>

Wim Laven arrived to his polling location in Atlanta’s northern suburbs this week unsure what to make of recent allegations of voter difficulties at the ballot box. Then he waited two hours in the Georgia sun; saw one person in the line treated for heat exhaustion; and watched a second collapse, receive help from paramedics, yet refuse to be taken to the hospital — so he could remain in line and cast his ballot.

Mr. Laven is now a believer.

“I have a hard time imaging this is anything but an intentional effort,” said Mr. Laven, who teaches political science at Kennesaw State University. “I can’t imagine this is just pure incompetence. Everyone knew how serious people have been around here about getting out the vote.”

As Georgians cast their first in-person ballots on Monday in the state’s fiercely contested gubernatorial election, what were once hypothetical fears about the state’s inability to handle what could be a record turnout for a nonpresidential election may be becoming reality.

Vote totals have increased almost 200 percent at the same point since the last gubernatorial election, according to the independent tracker Georgia Votes<http://georgiavotes.com/>, but many worry the state has either failed to adequately prepare for such increased interest or Republican state officials have intentionally mounted barriers to dissuade communities of likely Democratic residents from voting.
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Posted in The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>


One of the Messages from Russian Interference in 2018 Elections Pushed Judicial Watch’s Claim that Voter Fraud Was Rampant in “Blue States” Without Voter ID<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101640>
Posted on October 19, 2018 12:07 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101640> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Here’s the complaint from the newest members of the Fraudulent Fraud Squad.<https://www.justice.gov/usao-edva/press-release/file/1102591/download>  As Adam Smith flags<https://twitter.com/asmith83/status/1053359097339437056> from page 16:


View image on Twitter<https://twitter.com/asmith83/status/1053359097339437056/photo/1>
[View image on Twitter]<https://twitter.com/asmith83/status/1053359097339437056/photo/1>
[https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1011460380479062017/9HMlqJ1W_bigger.jpg]<https://twitter.com/asmith83>
<https://twitter.com/asmith83>
Adam Smith<https://twitter.com/asmith83>
✔@asmith83<https://twitter.com/asmith83>

<https://twitter.com/asmith83/status/1053359097339437056>


Hmm! https://www.justice.gov/usao-edva/pr/russian-national-charged-interfering-us-political-system …<https://t.co/gYTkyUISiW>
11:55 AM - Oct 19, 2018<https://twitter.com/asmith83/status/1053359097339437056>

·         <https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1053359097339437056>

8<https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1053359097339437056>

·         <https://twitter.com/asmith83>

See Adam Smith's other Tweets<https://twitter.com/asmith83>
Twitter Ads info and privacy<https://support.twitter.com/articles/20175256>

The 11 California counties claim<https://www.wmar2news.com/newsy/11-california-counties-might-have-more-registered-voters-than-eligible> came from Judicial Watch.

More from the complaint:

[https://electionlawblog.org/wp-content/uploads/Screen-Shot-2018-10-19-at-12.15.31-PM.png]<https://electionlawblog.org/wp-content/uploads/Screen-Shot-2018-10-19-at-12.15.31-PM.png>
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Posted in chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, fraudulent fraud squad<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=8>


“Justice Dept. charges Russian woman with interference in Midterm elections”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101638>
Posted on October 19, 2018 11:32 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101638> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

WaPo:<https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/director-of-national-intelligence-warns-of-ongoing-campaigns-to-interfere-with-elections/2018/10/19/64973a7a-d3b4-11e8-b2d2-f397227b43f0_story.html?utm_term=.d7f5e8e1ade1>

The Justice Department on Friday charged a Russian woman for her role in a conspiracy to interfere with the 2018 U.S. election, marking the first criminal case prosecutors have brought against a foreign national for meddling in the upcoming Midterms.

Elena Khusyaynova, 44, was charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States. Prosecutors said she managed the finances of “Project Lakhta,” a foreign influence operation they said was designed “to sow discord in the U.S. political system” by pushing arguments and misinformation online about a whole host of divisive political issues, including immigration, the Confederate flag, gun control, and the NFL national anthem protests.

The charges against Khusyaynova came just as the Office of the Director of National Intelligence warned that it was concerned about “ongoing campaigns” by Russia, China and Iran to interfere with the upcoming Midterm elections and even the 2020 race — an ominous warning that comes just weeks before voters head to the polls.
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Posted in campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>, chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>


“Coalition of Civil Rights Groups Ask for Emergency Relief for Newly Naturalized Voters Suspended by Georgia’s Exact Match Process”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101636>
Posted on October 19, 2018 11:13 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101636> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Release:<https://campaignlegal.org/press-releases/coalition-civil-rights-groups-ask-emergency-relief-newly-naturalized-voters>

Today, a coalition of civil rights organizations filed an emergency motion<https://campaignlegal.org/document/georgia-coalition-peoples-agenda-v-kemp-us-district-court-northern-district-georgia-0> in Georgia federal district court to make sure that persons inaccurately flagged as non-citizens under Secretary of State Brian Kemp’s flawed “exact match” system can vote. Kemp’s “exact match” voter registration process relies on outdated citizenship data which identifies naturalized citizens as non-citizens, forcing them to track down a deputy registrar before they can vote, even if they already produced proof of citizenship when they registered to vote originally.

However, there is not a guaranteed deputy registrar at every polling location. Therefore, naturalized citizens may be required to travel to the county seat to resolve an error in their registration that they did not cause. Moreover, recently naturalized citizens have been told that they cannot fax or mail their proof of citizenship, they must present it in-person. For voters temporarily out of the state, this is an absolute bar to voting.
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Posted in The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>


“Georgia Purged About 107,000 People From Voter Rolls: Report”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101634>
Posted on October 19, 2018 11:08 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101634> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

WABE:<https://www.wabe.org/georgia-purged-about-107000-people-from-voter-rolls-report/>

Georgia purged an estimated 107,000 people largely for not voting, an APM Reports investigation shows A handful of states, most of them led by Republicans, are increasingly using someone’s decision not to vote as the trigger for removing them from the rolls. No state has been more aggressive with this approach than Georgia, where Brian Kemp, the secretary of state, oversaw the purging of a growing number of voters ahead of his own run for governor, according to an APM Reports investigation. Voting rights advocates call it a new form of voter suppression, and they fear it will soon spread to other states.
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Posted in The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>


“Election Update: Democrats’ Unprecedented Fundraising Edge Is Scary For Republicans … And Our Model”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101632>
Posted on October 19, 2018 9:08 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101632> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Nate Silver:<https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-democrats-unprecedented-fundraising-edge-is-scary-for-republicans-and-for-our-model/>

The fundraising numbers are so good for Democrats — and so bad for Republicans — that it’s a little bit hard to know quite what to make of them. From a modelling standpoint, we’re extrapolating from years in which fundraising was relatively even, or from when one party had a modest edge, into an environment where Democrats suddenly have a 2-1 advantage in fundraising in competitive races. Moreover, this edge comes despite the fact that a large number of these competitive races feature Republican incumbents (incumbents usually have an easier time raising money than challengers) and that most of them are in red terrain<https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-house-and-senate-are-moving-in-opposite-directions/>.

If Democrats beat their projections on Nov. 6 — say, they win 63 House seats, equalling the number that Republicans won in 2010, an unlikely-but-not-impossible scenario — we may look back on these fundraising numbers as the canary in the coal mine. That data, plus Democrats’ very strong performances in special elections<https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pennsylvania-18-district-lamb-results/>, could look like tangible signs of a Democratic turnout surge that pollsters and pundits perhaps won’t have paid enough attention to. Right now, in fact, the polls are not showing a Democratic turnout advantage. Instead, based on a comparison of likely-voter and registered-voter polls<https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-fivethirtyeights-house-and-senate-models-work/>, they’re projecting roughly equal turnout between the parties, with Republicans’ demographic advantages (older, whiter voters typically vote at higher rates at the midterms) counteracting Democrats’ seemingly higher enthusiasm. If turnout among Democratic-leaning groups actually outpaces that among Republican-leaning ones, Democrats will beat their polls and our projections.

It’s just as easy to imagine the error running the other way, however. Maybe, precisely because fundraising has become easier, including winning contributions from out-of-state and out-of-district<https://www.axios.com/house-campaign-contributions-outside-money-f776be9e-f74b-4834-8ff4-ae30df1f7c61.html> donors, it’s no longer as meaningful an indicator of candidates’ grassroots appeal or organizational strength. Maybe the demographics of the Republican coalition have changed such that they’ll no longer raise as much money but will still get plenty of votes. Or maybe the GOP can make up for their lack of individual fundraising with more money from outside groups. If that’s the case, our model could overestimate Democrats’ chances. Although, I should note that while there’s a gap between our Lite forecast, which is based on local and national polls only, and our Classic forecast, which also incorporates fundraising and other “fundamentals” data, it’s not an especially large one. (Lite projects Democrats to pick up 36 seats, on average, as compared to 39 in Classic.)
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>


Texas: “Attorneys accuse AG Paxton of seeking voter fraud charges to suppress minority vote”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101629>
Posted on October 19, 2018 7:34 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101629> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Fort Worth Star Telegram:<https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article220251905.html>

Recent charges alleging that four women are part of an organized voter fraud ring<https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/community/fort-worth/article219920740.html> on the city’s north side — announced just weeks before the Nov. 6 midterm election<https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article218139715.html> — are political moves geared to diminish minority voting in one of the state’s reddest counties, two attorneys allege.

“They are political footballs being kicked back and forth by people who have a vested interested in suppressing minority vote,” said Greg Westfall, who, along with Frank Sellers, is representing one of the women, Leticia Sanchez Tepichin. “They are mothers and grandmothers. They are active in the community.

“They are being used by people who want to justify voter ID,” he said. “At the end of the day, there’s not going to be any fraud in this deal.”
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Posted in chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>


“Voting Rights on Life Support in the Age of Trump”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101627>
Posted on October 19, 2018 7:08 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=101627> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Read Andrew Cohen<https://washingtonspectator.org/voting-rights-on-life-support-in-the-age-of-trump/> at the Washington Spectator.
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Posted in The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>


--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>
http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org<http://electionlawblog.org/>
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