[EL] ELB News and Commentary 4/11/19

Sat Apr 13 06:35:21 PDT 2019

Looks like an important read. As people discuss electoral  reform and
polarization, I would urge them to zero in on the potential of two
proposals associated with my organization FairVote before coming to any
conclusions about the impact of reform on polarization.

One is the Fair Representation Act as first introduced in Congress in 2017,
and soon to be introduced in updated form this year. This modest statutory
revision of winner take all congressional elections would provide backers
of both major parties with the power to elect candidates in every part of
the country, and reliably represent the left, center and right in any given
area. Both David Brooks and Matthew  Yglesias last year wrote commentaries
with headlines to the effect that this is the best approach to save our
democracy. We provide detailed simulations of how it might work, and
relevant commentary here.
https://www.fairvote.org/fair_rep_in_congress#why_we_need_the_fair_representation_act

The other proposal is to the Top Four primary: that is, modify the top two
primary to advance more than two candidates, allow writeins, allow
candidates and parties association rights,  and use ranked choice voting.
While not as comprehensive as the Fair Representation Act, its potential
impact is worth a close look.

An impressive group of political scientists and law professors evaluated
the potential impact of a slew of 37 reforms back in 2015, putting the Fair
Representation Act atop the list.  See the final report here:
https://www.fairvote.org/comparative-structural-reform

- Rob Richie

On Thursday, April 11, 2019, Kogan, Vladimir <kogan.18 at osu.edu> wrote:

> In addition to the Monkey Cage Q&A Rick links below, I encourage everyone
> to check out the actual book. It is absolutely fantastic and is a must-read
> for those who cares about polarization.
>
>
>
> Andy does a great job showing that the many conventional wisdoms in the
> reform community about the causes of polarization are just not consistent
> with empirical evidence:
>
>
>
> ·         Although many are convinced that “gerrymandering” and growth in
> “safe seats” are the primary drivers of polarization, Andy summarizes his
> earlier work with Anthony Fowler showing that we observe almost the same
> amount of polarization in a closely divided, 50-50 district as in a
> one-party dominated safe seat.
>
>
>
> ·         Primaries are also not responsible. As Andy shows in the figure
> below, even if voters had nominated *the most moderate* candidate in *every
> primary*, polarization would’ve increased as much as it actually has.
>
>
>
>
>
> ·         The most important and provocative argument in the book is that
> polarization has risen as the costs of holding office have increased, while
> the benefits have fallen. As a result, only the craziest true believers are
> willing to do it. A natural antidote is decreasing the costs, but also
> increasing the benefits — including compensation. Andy shows that states
> that increased pay for legislators saw more moderate candidates run for
> office.
>
>
>
> As I said, this is a must-read for anyone who cares about polarization.
>
>
>
> [image: The Ohio State University]
> *Vladimir Kogan*, Associate Professor
> *Department of Political Science*
>
> 2004 Derby Hall | 154 N. Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=154+N.+Oval+Mall,+Columbus,+OH+43210&entry=gmail&source=g>
> -1373
> 510/415-4074 Mobile
>
> 614/292-9498 Office
>
> 614/292-1146 Fax
>
> http://u.osu.edu/kogan.18/
> kogan.18 at osu.edu
>
> [image: Twitter icon]@vkoganosu <https://twitter.com/vkoganosu>
>
>
> “Don’t blame our polarized politics on voters. Blame it on who runs for
> office in the first place.” <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104642>
>
> Posted on April 11, 2019 7:12 am <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104642>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Monkey Cage
> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/11/dont-blame-our-polarized-politics-voters-blame-it-who-runs-office-first-place/?utm_term=.798e1484082a>
> :
>
> *In his new book, “Who Wants to Run?
> <https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/022660957X?ie=UTF8&tag=thewaspos09-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=022660957X>”
> Stanford University political scientist Andrew Hall
> <http://andrewbenjaminhall.com/> investigates a familiar question — why
> Congress is so polarized
> <https://www.voteview.com/articles/party_polarization> — but comes to a
> less familiar answer. He writes, “Most legislative polarization is already
> baked into the set of people who run for office.” To understand more, I
> asked him some questions via email. Here is a lightly edited transcript of
> our exchange.*
>
>
> *John Sides: **I was struck by this statistic early in the book: Even if
> voters had picked the most moderate candidate in every U.S. House election
> between 1980 and 2014, 80 percent of the polarization between Democratic
> and Republican members would have occurred anyway. Why is that important to
> know?*
>
>
> *Andrew Hall:** The point of that 80 percent statistic — which is based
> on an analysis that Adam Bonica <https://web.stanford.edu/~bonica/> first
> developed — is that there just aren’t a lot of moderate choices for House
> voters. If we want to understand where polarization is coming from, we have
> to understand why so few moderate people run for office.*
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D104642&title=%E2%80%9CDon%E2%80%99t%20blame%20our%20polarized%20politics%20on%20voters.%20Blame%20it%20on%20who%20runs%20for%20office%20in%20the%20first%20place.%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in campaigns <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
>
>
>
>
>

-- 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rob Richie
President and CEO, FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
Takoma Park, MD 20912
rr at fairvote.org  (301) 270-4616  http://www.fairvote.org
*FairVote Facebook <https://www.facebook.com/FairVoteReform>*   *FairVote
Twitter <https://twitter.com/fairvote>*   My Twitter
<https://twitter.com/rob_richie>

Thank you for considering a *donation
<http://www.fairvote.org/donate>. Enjoy our video on ranked choice voting
<https://youtu.be/CIz_nzP-W_c>!*
(Note: Our Combined Federal Campaign number is 10132.)
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