[EL] ELB News and Commentary 4/18/19

[Rick Hasen]

A Nightmare Electoral College Tie Scenario from Josh Marshall<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104720>
Posted on April 17, 2019 9:13 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104720> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

TPM<https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/talking-to-the-miasma>:

I was talking to one midwestern Democrat about this. And this person told me they figured it was pretty likely Pennsylvania and Michigan would return to the Democratic fold in 2020. They were much less certain about Wisconsin. Indeed, they thought President Trump had a good shot at winning it.

Let’s set aside whether these prognostications are accurate. Let’s focus on the hypothetical.

When I pulled up my map I was surprised and dismayed to see the following.

If you take the 2016 election and re-add the number of electoral votes set aside by faithless electors you get Trump 306 and Clinton 232 electoral votes. (Presumably, though we can’t be certain, you don’t have faithless electors if they can really change the result.)

If you take combined 36 electoral votes of Michigan and Pennsylvania and remove them from the Trump column and reallocate them to the Democratic column you get a 268 to 270, an effective tie and an actual tie at 269 each if Democrats win both district electoral votes in Maine.
This assumes all the other blue or swing states stay in Trump’s column. One faithless elector makes it a tie. This is not at all an impossible scenario. The country would be ill-prepared in practice to manage a tie election in any circumstance. In present circumstances, the result could be very dark.
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Posted in electoral college<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=44>


“CRC Special Report Unveils Vast ‘Dark Money’ Network on the Left”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104718>
Posted on April 17, 2019 11:07 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104718> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

I expect we will hear a lot more about this new report<https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dark-money-network-left-wing>:

The political Left often criticizes—and the mainstream media frequently report on—the network of center-right nonprofits funded by billionaire entrepreneurs Charles and David Koch. But few politicos know of a left-wing leviathan in Washington, D.C., with a reach rivaling that of the Koch network.
This study by the Capital Research Center documents a shadowy web into which nearly $600 million flowed in 2017, the most recent year for which tax returns are available. Operating under the aegis of “philanthropy,” this network is housed in and staffed by a for-profit, privately held consultancy called Arabella Advisors<https://www.influencewatch.org/for-profit/arabella-advisors/>, LLC.* Arabella manages four nonprofit entities—the New Venture Fund<https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/new-venture-fund/>, Sixteen Thirty Fund<https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/sixteen-thirty-fund/>, Windward Fund<https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/windward-fund/>, and Hopewell Fund<https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/hopewell-fund/>—each of which shares an address and interlocking officers with Arabella.
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Posted in campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>, tax law and election law<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=22>


“Companies warn Trump: Census citizenship question could be costly”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104716>
Posted on April 17, 2019 10:10 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104716> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Reuters:<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-census-business-insight/companies-warn-trump-census-citizenship-question-could-be-costly-idUSKCN1RT17M>

An array of U.S. companies have told the Trump administration that a citizenship question on the 2020 Census would harm business if it leads to an undercount of immigrants, undermining the data they use to place stores, plan inventory and plot ad campaigns.

Corporate executives, lobbyists and representatives from major industry groups like the Chamber of Commerce, the National Retail Federation and the International Council of Shopping Centers have raised the issue in meetings with government officials, according to more than a dozen sources familiar with the matter. Some meetings date back to 2017, when the administration was first mulling adding the question.

Industry officials continue to seek assurances from the Census Bureau and the Commerce Department that the question’s impact on the quality of Census data will be minimized, according to the sources, who described the meetings on condition of anonymity.
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Posted in census litigation<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=125>


--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>
http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org<http://electionlawblog.org/>
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