[EL] ELB News and Commentary 8/29/19

[Rick Hasen]

“How California’s voters may have saved Trump from releasing his taxes”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107127>
Posted on August 28, 2019 8:38 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107127> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Bob Egelko<https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/How-California-s-voters-may-have-saved-Trump-14381891.php> for the SF Chronicle:

Forty-seven years ago, California’s voters opened the state’s presidential primaries to all nationally recognized candidates. That ballot measure could determine the fate of a new state law requiring President Trump and his competitors to release their tax returns<https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-to-Trump-Release-your-taxes-or-14259906.php> in order to run in next year’s primaries.
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Posted in campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>


“Maryland was never in play in 2016. The Russians targeted it anyway.”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107125>
Posted on August 28, 2019 8:34 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107125> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

WaPo:<https://beta.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/08/28/maryland-was-never-play-russians-targeted-it-anyway/>

Russia’s Twitter campaign to influence the 2016 presidential election in Maryland began in June 2015, 17 months before Election Day, when the St. Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency opened an account it called @BaltimoreOnline and began tweeting about local news events.
Its third tweet<http://t.co/G8fY8ZUPvv> was a retweet of a WBAL-TV story<https://www.wbaltv.com/article/police-5-year-old-boy-shot-himself-in-foot/6927070> about a 5-year-old boy who’d shot himself in the foot in an alley on North Mount Street, the same street where 11 blocks away Freddie Gray encountered police who loaded him into a police van for a race across the city that left him fatally injured.<https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/trial-of-officer-charged-with-murder-in-death-of-freddie-gray-set-to-begin/2016/06/08/25090374-2cc8-11e6-9b37-42985f6a265c_story.html?tid=lk_inline_manual_3>
The tweet fit neatly into what would become a pattern for Russian activities in Maryland, a solidly Democratic state that hadn’t favored a Republican presidential candidate since 1988 and wasn’t in play in 2016.
Yet, the IRA, the Russian troll factory U.S. prosecutors blame<https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-troll-farm-13-suspects-indicted-for-interference-in-us-election/2018/02/16/2504de5e-1342-11e8-9570-29c9830535e5_story.html?tid=lk_inline_manual_6> for the massive disinformation campaign during the 2016 campaign, devoted enormous attention and preparation to its Maryland campaign, all in a likely effort, experts say, to widen racial divisions and demoralize African American voters.
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Posted in campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>, chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, social media and social protests<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=58>


“Koch-founded charity asks for Supreme Court help to keep donor list secret”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107123>
Posted on August 28, 2019 8:29 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107123> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Reuters:<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-otc-disclosure/koch-founded-charity-asks-for-supreme-court-help-to-keep-donor-list-secret-idUSKCN1VI2DM>

The Americans for Prosperity Foundation, a libertarian nonprofit founded by Charles and David Koch, filed a petition<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-otc-disclosure/koch-founded-charity-asks-for-supreme-court-help-to-keep-donor-list-secret-idUSKCN1VI2DM> this week at the U.S. Supreme Court, asking the justices to review a 2018 ruling<https://static.reuters.com/resources/media/editorial/20190828/afpfvbecerra--9thcircuitopinion.pdf> by the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that would require Americans for Prosperity and other California-registered charitable foundations to disclose their major donors to the California Attorney General.
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, Supreme Court<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>


“What’s the hurry on the challenge to the new tax return disclosure law?”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107121>
Posted on August 28, 2019 8:20 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107121> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

David Ettinger<http://www.atthelectern.com/whats-the-hurry-on-the-challenge-to-the-new-tax-return-disclosure-law/> on the Cal. Supreme Court’s case on the California tax return law.
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Posted in campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>


Fifth Circuit Rejects LULAC One Person, One Vote Argument, Finding Water District in Texas a Special Purpose District Not Subject to the Rule<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107118>
Posted on August 28, 2019 8:10 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107118> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Here is the opinion<http://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/18/18-50655-CV0.pdf> in LULAC v. EAA.

I find Judge Higgenbotham’s argument in concurrence, where he says no one is disenfranchised, and it is just about the weighting of votes, to be curious. As I told my class of 20 students, if we all get to vote on the final exam format, and you each get one vote and I get 50, would it be fair to call you “disenfranchised” if you still have a formal vote?
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>


“Poll: Both Democrats and Republicans doubtful of 2020 election outcome”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107115>
Posted on August 28, 2019 8:11 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107115> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Politico:<https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/28/democrats-republicans-doubtful-2020-election-outcome-1476641>

Nearly 40 percent of registered voters surveyed in a new poll are concerned about the integrity of the results of the upcoming presidential race, echoing warnings of electoral interference blared on both sides of the aisle.

Asked how they would feel if their preferred candidate were to lose next year’s election, 20 percent of those polled said they would be “not very confident” that the 2020 election “had been conducted in a fair-and-square way.” Eighteen percent said they would be “not at all confident” if their candidate lost, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll<https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/08/28/2020-biden-leads-democrats-voters-dread-election/2120726001/> released Wednesday.

Just over half of respondents said they would be confident in the outcome of the election, with 21 percent of voters saying they would be “very confident” and 32 percent saying they would be “somewhat confident.” Nine percent of those surveyed were undecided or refused to answer.

My upcoming book, Election Meltdown,<https://www.amazon.com/Election-Meltdown-Distrust-American-Democracy/dp/0300248199/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=hasen+election+meltdown&qid=1565015345&s=digital-text&sr=1-1-catcorr> describes key reasons for this lack of trust and what to do about it.
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Posted in Election Meltdown<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=127>


“Could take FEC a while to regain a quorum, but don’t expect a ‘Wild West’”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107113>
Posted on August 28, 2019 7:54 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107113> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Kate Ackley for Roll Call.<https://www.rollcall.com/news/policy/fec-cant-function-but-political-money-rules-remain-in-effect>
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, federal election commission<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=24>


“Facebook sharpens political ad rules ahead of 2020”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107111>
Posted on August 28, 2019 7:44 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107111> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Axios:<https://www.axios.com/facebook-sharpens-political-ad-rules-ahead-of-2020-dc757cda-5353-4aa2-bad9-583f6ee7df1e.html>

As political ad spending for 2020 ramps up, Facebook is tightening its rules to make sure that groups running political or issue ads are legitimate and aren’t gaming the system.
Why it matters: With some high-profile examples of such evasion already emerging, the changes will make it harder for groups to dodge Facebook’s political advertising review program.
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>


“How Democrats get out the vote — from overseas”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107109>
Posted on August 28, 2019 7:41 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107109> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

SF Chronicle reports.<https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/How-Democrats-get-out-the-vote-from-overseas-14381987.php?utm_campaign=CMS>
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>


Today’s Must-Read: “Mystery of missing votes deepens as Congress investigates Georgia”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107107>
Posted on August 28, 2019 7:36 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=107107> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

AJC<https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/mystery-missing-votes-deepens-congress-investigates-georgia/x4OTY0ylxfA0Z0Rg6wjkyN/>:

To find a clue about what might have gone wrong with Georgia’s election last fall, look no further than voting machine No. 3 at the Winterville Train Depot outside Athens.

On machine No. 3, Republicans won every race. On each of the other six machines in that precinct, Democrats won every race.

The odds of an anomaly that large are less than 1 in 1 million, according to a statistician’s analysis in court documents. The strange results would disappear if votes for Democratic and Republican candidates were flipped on machine No. 3.

It just so happens that this occurred in Republican Brian Kemp’s home precinct, where he initially had a problem voting when his yellow voter access card didn’t work because a poll worker forgot to activate it. At the time, Kemp was secretary of state — Georgia’s top election official — and running for governor in a tight contest with Democrat Stacey Abrams.
The suspicious results in Winterville are evidence in the ongoing mystery<https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/time-solve-the-mystery-the-100-000-missing-votes/nEYXrcGW8et8esyVL6W4QM/> of whether errors with voting machines contributed to a stark drop-off in votes recorded in the race for Georgia lieutenant governor between Republican Geoff Duncan, who ended up winning, and Democrat Sarah Riggs Amico.

Even though it was the second race on the ballot, fewer votes were counted for lieutenant governor than for labor commissioner, insurance commissioner and every other statewide contest lower on the ballot. Roughly 80,000 fewer votes were counted for lieutenant governor than in other down-ballot elections.

The potential voting irregularities were included among 15,500 pages of documents obtained by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution that have also been turned over to the U.S. House Oversight and Reform Committee, which is looking into Georgia’s elections<https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/capitol-hill-investigators-officials-talks-hand-over-election-docs/XmYpBgq8TGit73o5a3KM3O/>. The documents, provided under the Georgia Open Records Act, offer details of alleged voting irregularities but no answers.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s office has refused to open an investigation. State election officials say the low number of votes could have been caused by low interest in the lieutenant governor’s race or where that contest appeared on the ballot.
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Posted in chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, voting technology<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=40>


--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>
http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org<http://electionlawblog.org/>


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