[EL] UK election and what "mandates" mean in U.S.-style plurality voting system

[Rob Richie]

Hi, Folks,

The UK elections are a fascinating example of how a plurality voting system
is not the same thing as a majoritarian voting system. Here was my tweet
about it just now, linking to my piece last month anticipating yesterday's
results.

I'll note that a ranked choice voting district by district might not have
changed the outcome, as geographic dispersion of votes matters as well as
winning districts by majorities rather than pluralities. But if you add up
the parties associated with Remain, it's a clear majority, with the
Conservative Party (43.6%), its Northern Ireland allies and Brexit party
(2.0%) combining for about 46% of the vote.

Rob


Rob Richie
@Rob_Richie
<https://twitter.com/Rob_Richie>
·
2m <https://twitter.com/Rob_Richie/status/1205460187362017281>
British "mandate" for Brexit comes when slim majority of voters want to
"remain." Most Labour voter defections went to pro-remain parties, not
pro-Brexit voters, yet a pro-Brexit party now can move forward. See my
piece last month anticipating results


https://www.fairvote.org/brexit_plurality_rules_and_the_united_kingdom_s_broken_democracy

Brexit, Plurality Rules, and the United Kingdom’s Broken Democracy
ROB RICHIE
NOVEMBER 12, 2019


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Rarely has a policy debate so divided and paralyzed a nation as the issue
of “Brexit” in the United Kingdom. In a 2016 national referendum, British
voters narrowly approved leaving the European Union. The aftermath and
turmoil ever since provides a case study in how such divisions are poorly
handled by a plurality, single-choice voting system -- yes, the same voting
method used by Americans to elect their members of Congress, governors and
presidential electors.

One problem is being able to win a majority of seats without trying to win
a majority of votes. Since 1980,
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_elections_overview> no
British political party has won even 44% of the national vote. In 2015, for
example, David Cameron’s Conservative Party won a majority of seats with
only 36.9% of the votes
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election>. His
plurality victory was reminiscent of Bill Clinton winning a huge majority
of electoral votes in 1992 with only 43% of the vote
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election> (and
only a single state with more than 50%) and, more recently, Justin Trudeau
of Canada's Liberal Party maintaining power with only 33% of the vote, less
than the Conservative Party.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election>

Now, Boris Johnson leads the Conservatives, and his bid is all about
playing to the “leave” Brexit base rather than a majority of Britons. “Remain”
now consistently leads in polls
<https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-there-was-a-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-how-would-you-vote-2/>,
but its backers are divided among several parties. Johnson received a boost
this week when Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party announced
<https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50387254> it would try to avoid
splitting the “leave” vote by not running candidates in any seats now held
by Conservatives. Farage is a long-time critic of plurality voting, and his
party earlier this year joined a cross-party reform coalition
<https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48847542>in support of a proportional
voting system. But Farage also knows that, in a plurality system, a more
united “leave” vote provides the best chance for Johnson to turn 40% of the
vote into a majority of seats.

-- 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rob Richie
President and CEO, FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
Takoma Park, MD 20912
rr at fairvote.org  (301) 270-4616  http://www.fairvote.org
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