[EL] UK election and what "mandates" mean in U.S.-style plurality voting system

[Smith, Brad]

Why doesn’t Duverger’s Law seem to apply in the UK? Why do Brits keep voting for parties other than Labor and Tory, if there is really so much tactical voting going on? Shouldn’t Lib Dem (and other voters) be making a choice between the top two, to put the least objectionable in power?

Bradley A. Smith
Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault
  Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
303 E. Broad Street
Columbus, OH 43214
(617) 236-6317

From: Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> On Behalf Of David Lublin
Sent: Friday, December 13, 2019 3:00 PM
To: Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org>
Cc: Election Law <Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>
Subject: Re: [EL] UK election and what "mandates" mean in U.S.-style plurality voting system


   ** [ This email originated outside of Capital University ] **
Perhaps surprisingly, MMP in elections for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly has manufactured majorities more often that not, and with the same or lower shares of the vote than won by Johnson's Tories yesterday. These regional contests provide great examples that large distortions can result when you distribute the top-up seats regionally or allow overhang seats.

Scotland has had three majority governments since devolution. All have been manufactured majorities with an average of 43.7% of the vote--not far off the Tories in this election. In the most recent election, the SNP almost won another manufactured majority with just 41.7% and has had no problem governing solo. (see vote results below)

Excepting brief periods of Labour minority government right after an election, elections in Wales have ultimately produced majority governments (including governments with exactly 1/2 the Assembly). All except one were manufactured majorities with an average of just 42.0% even including the one government backed by a voting majority. (see vote results below)

Though the British people voted for some form of it, I personally think it's a very bad idea in all forms. Still, I'm not British and I suspect that the predominant view in the UK today is relief that the basic decision has finally been taken and that they won't be called back to the polls soon after three elections in rapid succession.

Making MMP more likely to achieve the outcome indicated by Rob would require adding compensation mandates as now occurs in Germany thanks to a constitutional court decision. Still, the disappearance of overhang seats has made forming governments somewhat more difficult in that country,

Scotland
Year: Govt Party: Vote Share / Seat Share
2016: SNP 41.7% / 48.8% (SNP Minority, no problem governing)
2011: SNP: 44.0% / 53.5% (SNP Majority)
2007: SNP: 31.0% / 37.0% (SNP Minority)
2003: Lab/LD Together: 41.2% / 52.0% (Lab/LD Coalition)
1999: Lab/LD Together: 46.0% / 56.6% (Lab/LD Coalition)

Wales
Year: Govt Party: Vote Share / Seat Share
2016: Lab/LD Together 38.1% / 50.0% (Lab/LD Coalition with just 1 LD, Lab had 31.5% & just 1 short of 50%)
2011: Lab: 36.9% / 50.0% (Lab Government)
2007: Lab/Plaid Together: 50.6% / 63.3% (Lab/Plaid Coalition, after brief Lab Minority)
2003: Lab: 36.6% / 50.0% (Lab Government)
1999: 2nd/3rd Govt of Lab/LD Together: 47.9% / 56.7% (Lab/LD Coalition)
1999: 1st Govt of Lab: 35.4% / 46.7% (Lab Minority)


On Fri, Dec 13, 2019 at 11:40 AM Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org<mailto:rr at fairvote.org>> wrote:
Thanks for this thoughtful note exploring this question more deeply, David. I'll flag this good piece analyzing the vote from John Curtice <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2furldefense.proofpoint.com%2fv2%2furl%3fu%3dhttps-3A__www.bbc.com_news_election-2D2019-2D50774061%26d%3dDwMFaQ%26c%3dU0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q%26r%3d2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg%26m%3d_7RuKP8SkivHvMm7UB2ittqFqado8TdoE2ksWLsih48%26s%3d3F1vqcwFUhBdE8nCltP8V8HRqtiTVgR8RMZ3N4hzPtw%26e%3d&c=E,1,Gpbvu6bPGuBzqpUByNh-Z3ikQIa1V2yJc6-Lhe6-vfWVN8q6iiTttOHsYut455tLGa6kkq5vkI-OHShkGdZKEY4FPthTmfRPs2MBnmbluWU3-P-NuAuiJmM,&typo=1> for more on the complexity of the vote shifts -- and realizing that pre-election polls showed a substantial share of voters were not going to vote for their true party of choice in a desperate bid to guess how to vote most effectively.

It is interesting to mull what the UK parliament would look like with a German-type mixed member system that would have provided proportionality to parties with 5% national support and/or geographic concentrations of support able to win districts. The combined number of seats for Labour and the Liberal Democrats would have been nearly exactly the same as the Conservatives (43.7% or Labour-Lib Dems  and 43.6% for Conservatives), with nearly all other seats going to the Scottish National Party due to its regional concentration of support (and some seats to the Northern Irish parties). Of course the Greens and Brexit Party might have done better and perhaps won over 5%, with the Greens yesterday getting only 2.7% and the Brexit Party winning only 2.0% despite doing much better last spring in the European Parliamentary elections held with a proportional system (where a majority of seats went to parties clearly against a hard Brexit).

It wouldn't have given a "mandate" to any one party, as Johnson allegedly has with his 46% coalition vote share, but it would have created the conditions where some sensible middle ground might have been negotiated -- a middle ground that this piece in October by Curtice<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2furldefense.proofpoint.com%2fv2%2furl%3fu%3dhttps-3A__www.bbc.com_news_uk-2Dpolitics-2D50043549%26d%3dDwMFaQ%26c%3dU0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q%26r%3d2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg%26m%3d_7RuKP8SkivHvMm7UB2ittqFqado8TdoE2ksWLsih48%26s%3d7ZxE09BAfWxW8CDrcq5GI54-3pc68ek5wJc-7ukn0l8%26e%3d&c=E,1,ofVP62Gke60PczhWMg0N6jhgPDE5UvGLiWUxiYyIB6bANIm4bOIgpsS-b_paElTPntLJaOMCsvVqkYw5RJd8PnIENkoy-WiTKsomGBK_HwGmy0_thfVCwA,,&typo=1> defines well. Some real changes with the EU, but not a hard Brexit. Maybe Johnson will get to some kind of comparable deal, but we'll see. The hubris that comes from false mandates is what led David Cameron to create the Brexit referendum in the first place.

Rob



On Fri, Dec 13, 2019 at 11:03 AM David Lublin <dlublin at american.edu<mailto:dlublin at american.edu>> wrote:
Couple of thoughts in response to Rob's post:

(1) Rob's hypothesis about where the Labour vote went appears true only for heavy Remain seats. In Leave seats, the vote shifted far more to Leave parties. The BBC has a nice chart showing that defections from Labour were greatest in strong leave seats:

> 60% Leave
LAB -10.4%
BRX + 3.8%
CON + 6.1%
LD +2.6%
GRN +1%

> 60% Remain
LAB -6.4%
BRX +1.0%
CON -2.9%
LD +4.7%
CN +1.2%

If you look closely at individual constituency results, it seems very likely that a lot of the shift away from Labour went to Brexit Party as well as the Conservatives in many seats.

In Vale of Clwyd, for example, here are the shifts that delivered the seat to the Tories:

LAB -8.7
BRX +4.0
CON + 2.3
LD +2.2
PC +0.2

As you can see, the 8.7% drop in Labour support was accompanied by a shift of 6.3% up for Leave parties and 2.4% for Remain parties.

(2) The election was about more than just Brexit. Labour also did poorly because (a) Jeremy Corbyn (think Bernie Sanders but far more left wing and far less personable) had abysmal approval ratings, and (b) Labour adopted a very left-wing manifesto that scared away a lot of people. It was reminiscent of the 1983 manifesto aptly labelled "the longest suicide note in history."

(3) The election did result in what single-member plurality systems are designed to produce in that the UK now has a majority government that voters can hold accountable. In this sense, the system worked as intended.

(4) The electoral system, however, did exacerbate regional differences. The SNP won the 81% of Scottish seats on 45% of the vote. The Tories won the 65% of English seats on 47% of the vote. Though the Tories made major gains in Wales, Labour still won 55% of the seats on 41% of the vote. The Union will clearly be under stress though Scotland now has no way of demanding another vote on independence notwithstanding the SNP's successes. Who would have ever thought Labour would be reduced to one seat in Scotland!

(5) Voters acted as expected in that the LD and Green shares of the vote got squeezed over the campaign due to tactical voting even though Rob is correct that the Tories and Brexit did a better job of coordination. Brexit also appeared to be a good parking spot for Labour leave voters who didn't want to vote Labour or Tory.

(6) In Northern Ireland, the voters sent a nice signal to both the DUP and to Sinn Fein to get it together and make devolution work as the two leading parties both saw marked drops in their vote share to the benefit of Alliance and SDLP primarily.

(7) The desire of Brits to change the electoral system appears low. They voted down AV, which would have been a good start to better reflecting the overall will and reduced tactical voting, though also aided third parties.




On Fri, Dec 13, 2019 at 7:21 AM Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org<mailto:rr at fairvote.org>> wrote:
Hi, Folks,

The UK elections are a fascinating example of how a plurality voting system is not the same thing as a majoritarian voting system. Here was my tweet about it just now, linking to my piece last month anticipating yesterday's results.

I'll note that a ranked choice voting district by district might not have changed the outcome, as geographic dispersion of votes matters as well as winning districts by majorities rather than pluralities. But if you add up the parties associated with Remain, it's a clear majority, with the Conservative Party (43.6%), its Northern Ireland allies and Brexit party (2.0%) combining for about 46% of the vote.

Rob


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·
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British "mandate" for Brexit comes when slim majority of voters want to "remain." Most Labour voter defections went to pro-remain parties, not pro-Brexit voters, yet a pro-Brexit party now can move forward. See my piece last month anticipating results


https://www.fairvote.org/brexit_plurality_rules_and_the_united_kingdom_s_broken_democracy<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2furldefense.proofpoint.com%2fv2%2furl%3fu%3dhttps-3A__www.fairvote.org_brexit-5Fplurality-5Frules-5Fand-5Fthe-5Funited-5Fkingdom-5Fs-5Fbroken-5Fdemocracy%26d%3dDwMFaQ%26c%3dU0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q%26r%3d2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg%26m%3dtpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII%26s%3diZMPuJ0k0F2hbfwAztc9YHXITdZPiAcc93jX1rZo0ew%26e%3d&c=E,1,nrBDt-1uejbJWCT6coo32P_ZddXgDnzDg2WftWOIDCdVrrrwTCCN3_aIxICI8HCN8YvVlUqOab9rGPULV3xFyCFsNEYHvQVaPLxBnWTvwjzP0KvFk3M,&typo=1>

Brexit, Plurality Rules, and the United Kingdom’s Broken Democracy
ROB RICHIE
NOVEMBER 12, 2019

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Rarely has a policy debate so divided and paralyzed a nation as the issue of “Brexit” in the United Kingdom. In a 2016 national referendum, British voters narrowly approved leaving the European Union. The aftermath and turmoil ever since provides a case study in how such divisions are poorly handled by a plurality, single-choice voting system -- yes, the same voting method used by Americans to elect their members of Congress, governors and presidential electors.

One problem is being able to win a majority of seats without trying to win a majority of votes. Since 1980,<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2furldefense.proofpoint.com%2fv2%2furl%3fu%3dhttps-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_United-5FKingdom-5Fgeneral-5Felections-5Foverview%26d%3dDwMFaQ%26c%3dU0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q%26r%3d2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg%26m%3dtpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII%26s%3dz9LuO6DQ9kugeaPDohObcUuoGXQtPVmcJDevnjq0sic%26e%3d&c=E,1,Cm34FZKW0n8PxmQXBG6dEwVvPBPfLgqheq5xhPmJ4TNSRhuiAaYfJRWjWxs51ucFtFj7x0vrHeoOnqu7mmDZxNlDNJsCibukFI_k3oc1Oxr1AL-Z_vJPkaT-vg,,&typo=1> no British political party has won even 44% of the national vote. In 2015, for example, David Cameron’s Conservative Party won a majority of seats with only 36.9% of the votes<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2furldefense.proofpoint.com%2fv2%2furl%3fu%3dhttps-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_2015-5FUnited-5FKingdom-5Fgeneral-5Felection%26d%3dDwMFaQ%26c%3dU0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q%26r%3d2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg%26m%3dtpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII%26s%3dN91GPPAg8EQfEJfgV-Kvx93wP027Va9kxpPlmfSdA_w%26e%3d&c=E,1,kY8po62yJ9U3cm7em1TFSNtMSQDikCqoo8tbp18eljQhDnoXWMuLo1KoJFxENLjE3ZkpvRe3O5tjHwrUDWdlPh1zJRWO9-OihGAPmIpf3LW0efxv8dpzPa8lABw,&typo=1>. His plurality victory was reminiscent of Bill Clinton winning a huge majority of electoral votes in 1992 with only 43% of the vote<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2furldefense.proofpoint.com%2fv2%2furl%3fu%3dhttps-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_1992-5FUnited-5FStates-5Fpresidential-5Felection%26d%3dDwMFaQ%26c%3dU0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q%26r%3d2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg%26m%3dtpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII%26s%3dPpAmkzTYQHAmTYToK6RERzAaHQQQ16LTEjAApGdBSbQ%26e%3d&c=E,1,Qsvu5_JfVyyl44jwNjd3qRN72J7T7a0eE5bCGc6Lsed_gNKq2mUsOtoYSvaaol-8ABTfkmyPtEPrUvXFdnlbCCpv8iUzeQXQxGA3RLZmIGuJ&typo=1> (and only a single state with more than 50%) and, more recently, Justin Trudeau of Canada's Liberal Party maintaining power with only 33% of the vote, less than the Conservative Party.<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2furldefense.proofpoint.com%2fv2%2furl%3fu%3dhttps-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_2019-5FCanadian-5Ffederal-5Felection%26d%3dDwMFaQ%26c%3dU0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q%26r%3d2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg%26m%3dtpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII%26s%3dtpnuo3ViLmTBUkLH3xkKNUzYLQ9Ns-Xa-sTMCGw0WQw%26e%3d&c=E,1,KvMsn4gWppC31iHp_ER96mkSRmRT5QOUGW539ANAE3a2Ca2tRdVcJ0Z02EVJWK4vmbxZbPowPlL7ivrn5mp6-QqgZ-f3rZm5GvZzyjXBrOM,&typo=1>

Now, Boris Johnson leads the Conservatives, and his bid is all about playing to the “leave” Brexit base rather than a majority of Britons. “Remain” now consistently leads in polls<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2furldefense.proofpoint.com%2fv2%2furl%3fu%3dhttps-3A__whatukthinks.org_eu_questions_if-2Dthere-2Dwas-2Da-2Dreferendum-2Don-2Dbritains-2Dmembership-2Dof-2Dthe-2Deu-2Dhow-2Dwould-2Dyou-2Dvote-2D2_%26d%3dDwMFaQ%26c%3dU0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q%26r%3d2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg%26m%3dtpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII%26s%3dqhEqixi5V2d7YtGDMG8YUSaRxYF35-FmonAthvpmtRg%26e%3d&c=E,1,5QBRWBvl9xWl-_69JN1XNtvK-pWhUZvMvI0Grsvu377k2oKq3NmDjw4jotON782i2OqW3Fz-nFFE0MbKsAiwYjdW_4XuWmSAk410KzaSFcU,&typo=1>, but its backers are divided among several parties. Johnson received a boost this week when Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party announced<https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2furldefense.proofpoint.com%2fv2%2furl%3fu%3dhttps-3A__www.bbc.com_news_election-2D2019-2D50387254%26d%3dDwMFaQ%26c%3dU0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q%26r%3d2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg%26m%3dtpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII%26s%3dH-rDTKgE97GEbbmVM8YoricVhr3gOO82CfroMDkp_mY%26e%3d&c=E,1,9H40DTRjat7X9u5NsuJfwB6V-kGMNXWSpOg9nG6t6Uup25RChFW7T7xaNFDqhIOqN8Oczy5EFojcHg14nI3W3WhxYl7ycjqYazYWyWg-Bd3CFTBvKJE,&typo=1> it would try to avoid splitting the “leave” vote by not running candidates in any seats now held by Conservatives. Farage is a long-time critic of plurality voting, and his party earlier this year joined a cross-party reform coalition <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2furldefense.proofpoint.com%2fv2%2furl%3fu%3dhttps-3A__www.bbc.com_news_uk-2Dpolitics-2D48847542%26d%3dDwMFaQ%26c%3dU0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q%26r%3d2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg%26m%3dtpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII%26s%3dMMAaYBGxXnAguNMLi6bwH2qNQqKWxrH-1zjJxD7VXcg%26e%3d&c=E,1,YnP8w-LvNsOHHnG9DNmKluLd3IS8_hX-wosiJwO95F8MpYYdkJmQ3aFiPt_Wu_WBte5XdCzZhi_IgOQHxvC-rADtDdaYmEpy9h4dqWxbmvPbRJ6c5nXwCV0,&typo=1> in support of a proportional voting system. But Farage also knows that, in a plurality system, a more united “leave” vote provides the best chance for Johnson to turn 40% of the vote into a majority of seats.

--
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rob Richie
President and CEO, FairVote
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David Lublin
Professor of Government
School of Public Affairs
American University
4400 Massachusetts Ave.
Washington, D.C. 20016
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--
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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--
David Lublin
Professor of Government
School of Public Affairs
American University
4400 Massachusetts Ave.
Washington, D.C. 20016
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