[EL] ELB News and Commentary 6/3/19

Mon Jun 3 07:40:15 PDT 2019

Registration Opens Today for UCI Law 9th Annual Supreme Court Term in Review (July 8)<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105415>
Posted on June 3, 2019 7:32 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105415> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Hope to see many of you there (and the event will be live webcast. Registration opens today. Details<https://calendar.law.uci.edu/event/9th_annual_supreme_court_term_in_review?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=widget&utm_source=UC+Irvine+School+of+Law+Events#.XPUvHNNKhuU>:

9th Annual Supreme Court Term in Review

 Monday, July 8 at 10:30am to 12:00pm

 Irvine Barclay Theatre & Cheng Hall<https://calendar.law.uci.edu/barclay_theater>
4242 Campus Drive, Irvine, CA 92612

This exciting and entertaining program reviews the Supreme Court’s key cases decided in the October 2018 term, with an all-star panel of Supreme Court jurists, journalists, and legal scholars.

Registration will open at 12 p.m. (pacific) June 3, 2019.

Panelists

Moderated by Rick Hasen<https://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/index.html>, Chancellor’s Professor, UCI Law
·         Jonathan Adler<https://law.case.edu/Our-School/Faculty-Staff/Meet-Our-Faculty/Faculty-Detail/id/83>, Johan Verheij Memorial Professor of Law, Case Western Reserve University School of Law
·         Erwin Chemerinsky<https://www.law.berkeley.edu/our-faculty/faculty-profiles/erwin-chemerinsky/>, Dean and Jesse H. Choper Distinguished Professor of Law, Berkeley Law
·         Chris Geidner<https://twitter.com/chrisgeidner>, Senior Advisor for Law and Policy, The Justice Collaborative (beginning April 2019)
·         Michele Goodwin<https://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/goodwin/>, Chancellor’s Professor, UCI Law
·         Sarah Harrington<http://www.goldsteinrussell.com/attorneys/sarah-harrington/>, Partner, Goldstein & Russell, P.C.

Viewers may submit questions via Twitter (@UCILaw<http://twitter.com/ucilaw> or @rickhasen<https://twitter.com/rickhasen>), using the hashtag #ucilawscotus at the end of your question.

This event is approved for 1.5 hours of Minimum Continuing Legal Education Credit by the State Bar of California.

UC Irvine School of Law is a State Bar-approved MCLE provider.

For more event details, or to request reasonable accommodations for a disability, please email UCI Law Events Manager atevents at law.uci.edu<mailto:events at law.uci.edu>.
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Posted in Supreme Court<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>
“In need of cash, Democratic presidential hopefuls turn to wealthy donors”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105413>
Posted on June 3, 2019 7:29 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105413> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

WaPo<https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-need-of-cash-democratic-presidential-hopefuls-turn-to-wealthy-donors/2019/06/02/725b2adc-824f-11e9-95a9-e2c830afe24f_story.html?utm_term=.6c90c8377bc9>:

Across the Democratic field<https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/2020-presidential-hopefuls/?tid=a_inl_auto>, candidates are embracing the big donors they distanced themselves from early on — a sign of increasing doubt that the small, online donations the campaigns have been chasing will be sufficient to sustain two-dozen primary contenders.

Many of the candidates previously had held a handful of high-dollar fundraisers or avoided them altogether, seeking to tap into the populist sentiment that has animated the Democratic base. They tried to capitalize on the deluge of online donations that helped fuel the midterm elections, rather than making the traditional overtures to wealthy donors, once a staple of early presidential campaigns.

But after a disappointing fundraising haul in the first quarter of the year, and as the primary drags on with no clear front-runner, many of the candidates are turning their focus to wealthy donors — a strategy that could help keep their campaigns viable but may hamper their ability to connect with base voters.
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>

“A Partisan Grab, in Six Steps Will the Supreme Court act as a Republican branch?”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105411>
Posted on June 3, 2019 7:26 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105411> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

David Leonhardt <https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/03/opinion/census-citizenship-question-supreme-court.html> for NYT Opinion.
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Posted in census litigation<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=125>, Supreme Court<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>

Top 10 “Interest Group” Contributors to Congress for 2018 Elections<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105405>
Posted on June 3, 2019 7:07 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105405> by Richard Pildes<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=7>

Lots of interesting and perhaps surprising information at the OpenSecrets.org site<https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/mems.php> on the occupation of the “groups” that gave the largest contributions in the 2018 congressional election cycle. A couple points that stood out to me:

Those who list their occupation as “retired” gave the single largest amount of any occupational “group” in the aggregate. Second, the groups that split their contributions most evenly between the parties were the real-estate sector and the pharmaceutical industry.

Note that these are only direct contributions to campaigns. This does not reflect independent spending. I assume, also, that this reflects only contributions over $200, where the FEC requires disclosure of the occupation of the donor. Lastly, Open Secrets states that these figures reflect only contributions to incumbents, by which I take it they mean those running as incumbents in 2018 (even if they were running for a different seat, as in the case of O’Rourke).
Rank
Interest Group
Total
Dem Pct
GOP Pct
Top Recipient
1
Retired<https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=W06>
$114,024,131
61%
38%
Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas)<https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033540&cycle=2018>
2
Lawyers/Law Firms<https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=K01>
$85,336,840
77%
23%
Claire McCaskill (D-Mo)<https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00027694&cycle=2018>
3
Securities/Invest<https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=F07>
$67,244,785
54%
46%
Claire McCaskill (D-Mo)<https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00027694&cycle=2018>
4
Real Estate<https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=F10>
$59,169,334
51%
48%
Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas)<https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033540&cycle=2018>
5
Health Professionals<https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=H01>
$49,220,155
54%
45%
Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas)<https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033540&cycle=2018>
6
Leadership PACs<https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=Q03>
$43,891,969
33%
67%
Bill Nelson (D-Fla)<https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00009926&cycle=2018>
7
Insurance<https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=F09>
$38,265,371
41%
59%
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)<https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033782&cycle=2018>
8
Education<https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=W04>
$32,949,002
88%
11%
Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas)<https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033540&cycle=2018>
9
Lobbyists<https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=K02>
$26,836,275
46%
54%
Jon Tester (D-Mont)<https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00027605&cycle=2018>
10
Pharm/Health Prod<https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=H04>
$23,946,449
47%
52%
Bob Casey (D-Pa)<https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00027503&cycle=2018>
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>

How Appealing Rounds Up Census Litigation Developments<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105403>
Posted on June 2, 2019 7:43 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105403> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Here<https://howappealing.abovethelaw.com/2019/06/02/#93542>.
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Posted in census litigation<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=125>, Supreme Court<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>

“Partisan control determines how states act on voting rights”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105401>
Posted on June 2, 2019 5:26 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105401> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

AP:<https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/01/partisan-control-determines-states-act-voting-rights/39536581/>

New York is among a small number of states where Democrats made big gains in last year’s election and have used that power to pass laws to make it easier to register and to vote. They have introduced early voting, all-mail voting or automatic registration.

A few Republican-led states – some of which saw high turnout for Democratic candidates – are going in the opposite direction, advancing bills to tighten voter registration and early voting.
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Posted in The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

Texas: “San Antonio leaders, residents outraged after former mayor Lila Cockrell isn’t allowed to vote”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105399>
Posted on June 2, 2019 5:23 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105399> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

MySA<https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/politics/article/Former-San-Antonio-mayor-Lila-Cockrell-turned-13906697.php>:

Outrage over Texas’ voter ID law was reignited in San Antonio on Thursday after the city’s 97-year-old former mayor was turned away from a polling site for lack of identification.

Lila Cockrell was one of more than 12,000 people who flocked to the polls Wednesday to vote in San Antonio’s mayoral runoffs, but she didn’t get to cast a ballot when she couldn’t present an authorized form of ID.

“I’m 97, I don’t drive anymore,” said Cockrell, San Antonio’s first female mayor. “I haven’t been on a cruise or anything in years.”
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

Kentucky: “Bevin still investigating Steve Beshear as election looms. Will it change the campaign?”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105397>
Posted on June 2, 2019 5:20 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105397> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Lexington Herald-Leader<https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article230695419.html> reports.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

Texas: “Failed secretary of state nominee David Whitley back on Gov. Greg Abbott’s payroll”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105395>
Posted on June 2, 2019 5:09 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105395> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

The Dallas Morning News reports.<https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2019/05/31/failed-secretary-state-nominee-david-whitley-back-gov-greg-abbotts-payroll>
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Posted in election law biz<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=51>

“The Supreme Court is deciding a gerrymandering case. Here’s the social science that the justices need to know.”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105392>
Posted on June 2, 2019 3:20 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105392> by Nicholas Stephanopoulos<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=12>

Chris Warshaw<https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/01/supreme-court-is-deciding-gerrymandering-case-heres-social-science-that-justices-need-know/?utm_term=.27b8359f7b7b> for Monkey Cage:

There are several ways to measure partisan advantage in a districting plan, including the efficiency gap<https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1946&context=public_law_and_legal_theory>, partisan symmetry<https://gking.harvard.edu/publications/term/1586>, declination<https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.04799> and the mean-median difference<https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/1/17/16898378/judges-identify-partisan-gerrymandering-north-carolina-supreme-court>. These metrics all capture distortions in the vote-seat relationship. In a recent work<https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3330695>, Nicholas Stephanopoulos and I averaged these measures to estimate the partisan bias in each state’s districting process — that is, whether these distortions advantaged one party. The graph below draws on data from all congressional elections from 1972 to 2018 in states with more than six congressional seats.
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/hjM30SPS_Nf4SGznIW-UDjgVPUc=/723x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/65HXCI3TTNELFEBFOQYFBWENB4.jpg]

The graph shows just why partisan gerrymandering has become so controversial: the states that have produced litigation really do have historically high levels of partisan bias in their congressional maps. Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina have some of the largest pro-Republican biases in the past 40-plus years, and Maryland has a large pro-Democratic bias. For instance, Ohio’s congressional map had a higher level of pro-Republican bias in 2012 than 99.5 percent of previous congressional maps.

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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

Suit Claiming Louisiana Violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by Failing to Create Second African-American Opportunity District Survives Motion to Dismiss<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105389>
Posted on May 31, 2019 3:31 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105389> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

You can find the ruling at this link<https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legal-work/2019-05-31-72-Ruling%20on%20Motion%20to%20Dismiss.pdf>.
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Posted in Voting Rights Act<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15>

“The New Trove of Secret Gerrymandering Files Will Be a Nightmare for the GOP”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105387>
Posted on May 31, 2019 2:59 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105387> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Mark Joseph Stern<https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/05/thomas-hofeller-secret-gerrymandering-files-north-carolina.html> for Slate:

There are sure to be more revelations from the Hofeller files to come, driving home the downside of using a single consultant to mastermind redistricting across multiple states and decades.

For years, Hofeller held an office at the Republican National Committee on Capitol Hill. He worked as both its official redistricting director and, later, as a paid consultant. He traveled the country to teach Republican lawmakers how to gerrymander their districts to create permanent GOP legislative majorities. (Ironically, he incorporated warnings<https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/10/the-league-of/309084/>about keeping all of this work under wraps, like “Make sure your security is real,” “Make sure your computer is in a PRIVATE location,” and “The ‘e’ in email stands for ‘eternal.’ ”) Hofeller also personally helped to draw some of the country’s most egregiously gerrymandered maps, including<https://www.thenation.com/article/how-gop-resegregating-south/> those in Alabama, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia. (He likely had a hand in more maps than we currently know.) But Hofeller devoted the most time to North Carolina, where he created lopsided Republican majorities in a state evenly divided between the parties.

Following the 2010 red wave, Hofeller worked with the RNC to develop Project REDMAP<https://www.salon.com/2018/02/06/how-the-republicans-rigged-congress-and-poisoned-our-politics/>, a sweeping initiative to help GOP-controlled state houses build durable gerrymanders. He taught lawmakers<https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/10/the-league-of/309084/> how to use racial and partisan data to dilute Democratic votes. His maps preserved Republicans’ House majority over the next three elections and maintained GOP domination over most state legislatures.
Now Hofeller’s records are in the hands of attorneys for Common Cause, the voting rights group suing to invalidate North Carolina’s Hofeller-designed legislative gerrymander. The firm representing Common Cause, Arnold & Porter, also represents plaintiffs fighting the citizenship question—which is how Hofeller’s white voting power memo wound up before the judge<https://www.usatoday.com/documents/6077866-Compel/> overseeing the census case. (On Thursday, the American Civil Liberties Union also brought it<https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-966/101439/20190530142417722_2019.05.30%20NYIC%20Respondents%20Notice%20of%20Filing%20--%20Final.pdf> to the Supreme Court’s attention.)

The voting rights advocates in possession of the Hofeller collection have not yet revealed the full extent of the files. This may be because they have been exceedingly careful to play by the rules: Lizon offered<http://pulse.ncpolicywatch.org/2019/05/01/court-considering-releasing-all-or-some-of-dead-gop-mapmakers-data-to-parties-in-lawsuit/> her father’s drives to Common Cause directly, but its attorneys decided to issue a subpoena<https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/30/us/census-citizenship-question-hofeller.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage> in February to obtain them formally and provide notice to third parties.
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Posted in redistricting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>

Ninth Circuit Rejects Libertarian Party Challenge to Arizona Ballot Access Rule<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105385>
Posted on May 31, 2019 1:18 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105385> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Read Arizona Libertarian Party v. Hobbs<https://www.bloomberglaw.com/document/X1J9IQ7DG000N?>.
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Posted in ballot access<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=46>

I Talked About the Census Case and the New Revelations with Hansi Lo Wang and Dale Ho on KQED Forum<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105383>
Posted on May 31, 2019 12:58 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105383> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

You can listen here<https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101871397/trump-administration-added-citizenship-question-on-census-to-benefit-whites-according-to-new-memo>.
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Posted in census litigation<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=125>, Supreme Court<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>

“Counting Change: Ensuring an Inclusive Census for Communities of Color”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105381>
Posted on May 31, 2019 8:18 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105381> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Janai Nelson has posted this draft<https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3374954> on SSRN (forthcoming, Columbia Law Review). Here is the abstract:

The constitutionally-mandated decennial enumeration of the U.S. population is indispensable to the equitable distribution of political and economic resources. As we approach the 2020 Census, however, several factors converge that both undermine how we count change in communities of color and compete with shifting demographics and power dynamics that make an accurate accounting especially urgent — most notably the threatened inclusion of a citizenship question on the Census short form. By 2045, the population of the United States is on pace to comprise a majority-minority plurality — in which no single racial or ethnic group constitutes a majority but people of color, collectively, outnumber whites. Counting that change accurately will help determine the appropriate allocation of the resources most needed to serve an evolving American populace. This Article considers the historical context of undercounting people of color in the United States, the mounting stakes of their continued numerical diminution, and certain policy and pragmatic measures to disrupt the effects of a compromised Census. Premised on a theory of representational equality in which all our country’s residents “are to be counted — and served — as constituents”, it provides a comprehensive assessment of the centrality of the Census to our democracy in an effort to ensure that we do not discount the diversity that makes this country the greatest and most promising democratic experiment still.
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Posted in census litigation<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=125>

“Texas voter purge came amid push in 8 states carried by Trump”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105379>
Posted on May 31, 2019 7:21 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105379> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

The Houston Chronicle reports.<https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Texas-voter-purge-came-amid-push-in-8-states-13904942.php?t=ceabaebd6e>
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Posted in The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

“Democrats roll out $90 million super PAC aimed at swing states”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105377>
Posted on May 31, 2019 7:17 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105377> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Politico<https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/31/democrats-super-pac-swing-states-1348502?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=0000014e-f109-dd93-ad7f-f90d0def0000&nlid=630318>:

The nation’s largest super PAC devoted to grassroots Democratic turnout is launching its organizing efforts earlier than ever in seven swing states with a new campaign director and its largest budget to date: $80 million to $90 million.
[Share]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105377&title=%E2%80%9CDemocrats%20roll%20out%20%2490%20million%20super%20PAC%20aimed%20at%20swing%20states%E2%80%9D>
Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>

“Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak signs law ending prison gerrymandering”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105375>
Posted on May 31, 2019 7:12 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105375> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Release<https://www.prisonersofthecensus.org/news/2019/05/31/nevada-gov/>:

Yesterday, Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak signed a bill into law ensuring that people in state prisons will be counted as residents of their home addresses when new legislative districts are drawn. The new law makes Nevada the sixth state<https://www.prisonersofthecensus.org/legislation.html> to end the practice known as prison gerrymandering, after Washington passed its own law<https://www.prisonersofthecensus.org/news/2019/05/21/washington-gov/> just last week.
[Share]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105375&title=%E2%80%9CNevada%20Governor%20Steve%20Sisolak%20signs%20law%20ending%20prison%20gerrymandering%E2%80%9D>
Posted in felon voting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=66>, redistricting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>

--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
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Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>
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