[EL] ELB News and Commentary 6/23/19

Mon Jun 24 10:16:55 PDT 2019

Election Law Colleagues:

Check out my state by state analysis of which states might exclude
non-citizens from redistricting population counts--and for which states
it's simply too late to do so.
https://www.klarnerpolitics.org/

Also check out my analysis of the consequences of excluding non-citizens
from population counts for Latino and African-American state legislators
and U.S. Representatives, and for how many seats the Democrats will win in
each state, done when the Evenwel case was being heard.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2699850

Carl

On Mon, Jun 24, 2019 at 12:21 AM Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu> wrote:

> New Estimate from Census Department Researchers Forthcoming in Peer
> Reviewed Journal Finds Citizenship Question Could Depress Response Rate by
> 8 Percent in Households That May Have Noncitizens
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105741>
>
> Posted on June 23, 2019 9:15 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105741>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> This paper
> <https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6165808/U-S-Census-Bureau-Working-Paper-Understanding.pdf> is
> forthcoming in Demography (h/t Hansi Lo Wang
> <https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1142936853575852032>). Here is
> the abstract:
>
> *he addition of a citizenship question to the 2020 census could affect the
> self-response rate, a key driver of the cost and quality of a census. We
> find that citizenship question response patterns in the American Community
> Survey (ACS) suggest that it is a sensitive question when asked about
> administrative record noncitizens but not when asked about administrative
> record citizens. ACS respondents who were administrative record noncitizens
> in 2017 frequently choose to skip the question or answer that the person is
> a citizen. We predict the effect on self-response to the entire survey by
> comparing mail response rates in the 2010 ACS, which included a citizenship
> question, with those of the 2010 census, which did not have a citizenship
> question, among households in both surveys. We compare the actual
> ACS-census difference in response rates for households that may contain
> noncitizens (more sensitive to the question) with the difference for
> households containing only U.S. citizens. We estimate that the addition of
> a citizenship question will have an 8.0 percentage point larger effect on
> self-response rates in households that may have noncitizens relative to
> those with only U.S. citizens. Assuming that the citizenship question does
> not affect unit self-response in all-citizen households and applying the
> 8.0 percentage point drop to the 28.1 % of housing units potentially having
> at least one noncitizen would predict an overall 2.2 percentage point drop
> in self-response in the 2020 census, increasing costs and reducing the
> quality of the population count.*
>
> Recall that at oral argument in the census case, Justice Gorsuch sought to
> minimize census department studies which predicted (a smaller) response
> rate drop.
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105741&title=New%20Estimate%20from%20Census%20Department%20Researchers%20Forthcoming%20in%20Peer%20Reviewed%20Journal%20Finds%20Citizenship%20Question%20Could%20Depress%20Response%20Rate%20by%208%20Percent%20in%20Households%20That%20May%20Have%20Noncitizens>
>
> Posted in census litigation <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=125>
>
>
>
>
> Axios: Trump Transition Team Vetting Documents for Kris Kobach Worried
> About White Supremacist Ties <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105737>
>
> Posted on June 23, 2019 3:54 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105737>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Axios
> <https://www.axios.com/leaked-donald-trump-vetting-docs-hbo-6ce3cd26-1eb9-4da8-b15e-47b56020aef7.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twsocialshare&utm_campaign=organic>
> :
>
> *Nearly 100 internal Trump transition vetting documents leaked to “Axios
> on HBO” identify a host of “red flags” about officials who went on to get
> some of the most powerful jobs in the U.S. government. *
>
>
> * Why it matters: The massive trove, and the story behind it, sheds light
> on the slap-dash way President Trump filled his cabinet and administration,
> and foreshadowed future scandals that beset his government….*
>
> *One heading in the document about Kris Kobach, in the running for
> Homeland Security Secretary, listed “white supremacy” as a vulnerability.
> It cited accusations from past political opponents that he had ties to
> white supremacist groups.*
>
> From the vetting document
> <https://electionlawblog.org/wp-content/uploads/Kris-Kobach-Backgrounder.pdf> under
> “Political Vulnerabilities:
>
> [image:
> https://electionlawblog.org/wp-content/uploads/Screen-Shot-2019-06-23-at-3.53.35-PM-1024x262.png]
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105737&title=Axios%3A%20Trump%20Transition%20Team%20Vetting%20Documents%20for%20Kris%20Kobach%20Worried%20About%20White%20Supremacist%20Ties>
>
> Posted in fraudulent fraud squad <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=8>
>
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>
> View My Opening Statement to House Judiciary Committee Hearing About
> Foreign Interference in 2016 and 2020 Elections
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105734>
>
> Posted on June 23, 2019 12:38 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105734>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Watch <https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4804298/hasen-opening-statement>:
>
> You can find my full written testimony here
> <https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/democrats.judiciary.house.gov/files/documents/Hasen%20Testimony.pdf>
> .
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105734&title=View%20My%20Opening%20Statement%20to%20House%20Judiciary%20Committee%20Hearing%20About%20Foreign%20Interference%20in%202016%20and%202020%20Elections>
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> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
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> “California political parties couldn’t use ‘independent’ in their names
> under proposal” <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105732>
>
> Posted on June 23, 2019 12:25 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105732>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> LAT
> <https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-political-parties-independent-confused-voters-20190621-story.html>
> :
>
> *With potentially hundreds of thousands of California voters under the
> mistaken belief that they are registered as independent from partisan
> affiliation, newly drafted state legislation could end the confusion by
> forcing one minor political party to change its name.*
>
>
>
>
>
> * The proposal, to be introduced in the state Senate on Friday, would ban
> any party from using the word “independent” in its official name beginning
> in next year’s statewide elections — a change largely directed at the
> American Independent Party of California. *
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105732&title=%E2%80%9CCalifornia%20political%20parties%20couldn%E2%80%99t%20use%20%E2%80%98independent%E2%80%99%20in%20their%20names%20under%20proposal%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> “Voting machine giant lobbies for paper ballots over election security
> concerns” <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105730>
>
> Posted on June 23, 2019 12:23 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105730>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> CNN
> <https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/19/politics/voting-machines-paper-ballots-congress/index.html>
> :
>
>
>
> *The US’s largest election equipment manufacturer has begun quietly
> lobbying Congress to force all voting equipment to create a paper trail, a
> sharp departure after years of selling paperless digital machines that
> can’t be fully audited. The change of stance comes amid concerns over the
> security of elections following Russia’s interference effort i
> <https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/18/politics/russian-hacking-mueller-report/index.html>n
> the 2016 presidential election. “There’s a big recognition today that
> auditing is important, and to do a proper audit you need a piece of paper,”
> Kathy Rogers, Election Systems & Software senior vice president of
> government relations, told CNN. “I’ll tell you it’s a decision that came at
> a cost. We’ve lost a few sales because of it. But we think it’s the right
> thing to do,” Rogers said….*
>
>
>
> *But critics say Election Systems & Software’s open pivot to paper is
> simply marketing, after the company saw that paperless machines were on the
> way out. “After years of selling voting equipment that it knew was
> insecure, and fighting tooth and nail against real election security, ES&S
> is finally admitting that paper ballots are the most secure system
> currently available,” Sen. Ron Wyden, whose PAVE Act is one of the
> strictest security bills introduced in the Senate, told CNN in a statement.
> “If it is serious about this change of heart, ES&S would tell its friends
> in Georgia and Speaker McConnell to stop standing in the way of the PAVE
> Act’s common-sense requirements to protect American democracy,” the Oregon
> Democrat said.*
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105730&title=%E2%80%9CVoting%20machine%20giant%20lobbies%20for%20paper%20ballots%20over%20election%20security%20concerns%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> Trump Again Falsely Suggests 1 Million Fraudulent Votes in California,
> Citing Judicial Watch <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105728>
>
> Posted on June 23, 2019 12:20 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105728>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> From the Meet the Press transcript
> <https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/president-trump-s-full-unedited-interview-meet-press-n1020731>
> :
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> *CHUCK TODD: You didn’t like the fact that you lost the popular vote. That
> bothered you, didn’t it? PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Well, I think it was a — I
> mean, I’ll say something that, again, is controversial. There were a lot of
> votes cast that I don’t believe. I look at California. CHUCK TODD: Mr.
> President. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Excuse me. CHUCK TODD: But that’s a —
> PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Take a look at Judicial Watch, take a look at their
> settlement where California admitted to a million votes. They admitted to a
> million votes. CHUCK TODD: A million votes of what? PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP:
> Take a look at judicial — CHUCK TODD: What are you talking about? PRESIDENT
> DONALD TRUMP: Judicial Watch made a settlement. There was, there was much —
> CHUCK TODD: About what? PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: — there was much illegal
> voting. But let me tell you about popular vote. Do you have a second? CHUCK
> TODD: Yes, because you were, you were a big fan of it — PRESIDENT DONALD
> TRUMP: There are two — CHUCK TODD: — until you weren’t PRESIDENT DONALD
> TRUMP: Well, I like popular vote. CHUCK TODD: Yeah. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP:
> I think I do better with a popular vote. But I didn’t campaign for the
> popular vote.*
>
> Robert Maguire
> <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_/status/1142802329382637568>:
>
> [image:
> https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1049819197683974144/15zLkLvi_bigger.jpg]
> <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_>
>
> <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_>
>
> *Robert Maguire <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_>*
>
> *✔@RobertMaguire_ <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_>*
>
>
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>  · 14h <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_/status/1142796602576449536>
>
> <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_/status/1142796602576449536>
>
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> Donald J. Trump still doesn't believe that he lost the popular vote
>
> [image: View image on Twitter]
> <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_/status/1142796602576449536/photo/1>
>
> [image:
> https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1049819197683974144/15zLkLvi_bigger.jpg]
> <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_>
>
> <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_>
>
> *Robert Maguire <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_>*
>
> *✔@RobertMaguire_ <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_>*
>
>
>
> Here's the clip. Trump falsely claims that California "admitted to a
> million votes," which of course is utter nonsense.
>
> California agreed to clean up its voter rolls. It did not admit (nor is
> there evidence) of the kind of voter fraud Trump is referring to
>
> <https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1142802329382637568>
>
> 129 <https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1142802329382637568>
>
> 7:31 AM - Jun 23, 2019
> <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_/status/1142802329382637568>
>
> Twitter Ads info and privacy
> <https://support.twitter.com/articles/20175256>
>
> <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_/status/1142802329382637568>
>
> [image: Embedded video]
> <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_/status/1142802329382637568>
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> <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_/status/1142802329382637568>
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> 70 people are talking about this
> <https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_/status/1142802329382637568>
>
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>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105728&title=Trump%20Again%20Falsely%20Suggests%201%20Million%20Fraudulent%20Votes%20in%20California%2C%20Citing%20Judicial%20Watch>
>
> Posted in fraudulent fraud squad <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=8>
>
>
>
>
> Florida: “Republicans Block Ex-Cons From Voting in Biggest Swing State”
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105726>
>
> Posted on June 22, 2019 9:13 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105726>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Bloomberg:
> <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-22/republicans-block-ex-cons-from-voting-in-biggest-swing-state?srnd=premium>
>
>
>
>
> *Seven months ago, almost two-thirds of voters approved Amendment 4, which
> restores registration rights to many felons. Florida had been one of three
> states, along with Kentucky and Iowa, where those convicted of a felony
> were permanently prohibited from registering without going through a
> lengthy clemency process, and many saw Floridians’ vote as bringing the
> state into the U.S. mainstream. Only those convicted of murder and sexual
> offenses still are excluded. However, Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to
> sign a bill within days that critics say will blunt much of Amendment 4’s
> impact. The bill passed by the Republican-led Legislature would require
> felons to pay off restitution, court fees and fines before registering — a
> move that voting rights advocates say could have a chilling effect. So far,
> the number of former inmates who have visited a local supervisor of
> elections office to register has been a modest 2,000, according to one
> estimate.*
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105726&title=Florida%3A%20%E2%80%9CRepublicans%20Block%20Ex-Cons%20From%20Voting%20in%20Biggest%20Swing%20State%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in felon voting <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=66>
>
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>
>
> “GOP lawmakers create hurdles for citizen ballot initiatives”
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105724>
>
> Posted on June 22, 2019 9:06 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105724>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> AP:
> <https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/22/gop-lawmakers-create-hurdles-citizen-ballot-initiatives/39614279/>
>
>
>
> *Arkansas’ GOP-dominated Legislature has taken steps this year that will
> make it harder to put such proposals before voters, and they are not the
> only ones. Florida, North Dakota, South Dakota and Utah also have enacted
> restrictions on the public’s ability to place initiatives on the ballot. In
> Michigan, the state’s top election official is being sued over
> Republican-enacted requirements that make it harder to qualify proposals
> for the ballot. In all, lawmakers in 16 states introduced more than 120
> bills this year that would weaken the initiative process, according to the
> Ballot Initiative Strategy Center. The moves worry advocates who say they
> undermine the idea of direct democracy and could effectively shut down the
> initiative process in some states.*
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105724&title=%E2%80%9CGOP%20lawmakers%20create%20hurdles%20for%20citizen%20ballot%20initiatives%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in direct democracy <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=62>
>
>
>
>
> “People Who Can’t Vote Still Count Politically in America. What if That
> Changes?” <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105722>
>
> Posted on June 22, 2019 10:16 am <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105722>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> NYT’s The UpShot
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/22/upshot/america-who-deserves-representation.html>
>  reports.
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105722&title=%E2%80%9CPeople%20Who%20Can%E2%80%99t%20Vote%20Still%20Count%20Politically%20in%20America.%20What%20if%20That%20Changes%3F%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> “House panel backs election security bill in aftermath of 2016 Russian
> interference” <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105720>
>
> Posted on June 22, 2019 10:12 am <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105720>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Wapo reports.
> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-panel-backs-election-security-bill-in-wake-of-russian-interference-in-2016/2019/06/21/d169e154-9455-11e9-aadb-74e6b2b46f6a_story.html?utm_term=.8f3d082165e3&wpmk=MK0000200>
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105720&title=%E2%80%9CHouse%20panel%20backs%20election%20security%20bill%20in%20aftermath%20of%202016%20Russian%20interference%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> DOJ Signals That If States Want to Start Drawing Legislative Districts on
> the Basis of Equal Numbers of Eligible Voters Not People (Which Will Shift
> Power to Republican Party and Against Hispanics), Trump Administration Will
> Support It <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105717>
>
> Posted on June 21, 2019 4:29 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=105717>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> A nugget from the government’s SCOTUS filing
> <https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-966/103606/20190620144127047_18-966%20Govt%20opp%20to%20Mot%20for%20Limited%20Remand.pdf>
>  opposing plaintiffs’ motion
> <http://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-966/102858/20190612195236397_18-966%20US%20Dept%20of%20Commerce%20v%20State%20of%20New%20York%20et%20al%20NYIC%20Respondents%20Motion%20for%20Limited%20Remand.pdf> for
> a limited remand in the census case (on the basis of the Hofeller evidence):
>
> [image:
> https://electionlawblog.org/wp-content/uploads/Screen-Shot-2019-06-21-at-4.28.02-PM-857x1024.png]
>
> More on the significance of this in my recent Slate piece
> <https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/05/census-memo-supreme-court-conservatives-white-voters-alito.html>
> .
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D105717&title=DOJ%20Signals%20That%20If%20States%20Want%20to%20Start%20Drawing%20Legislative%20Districts%20on%20the%20Basis%20of%20Equal%20Numbers%20of%20Eligible%20Voters%20Not%20People%20(Which%20Will%20Shift%20Power%20to%20Republican%20Party%20and%20Against%20Hispanics)%2C%20Trump%20Administration%20Will%20Support%20It>
>
> Posted in census litigation <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=125>
>
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Rick Hasen
>
> Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
>
> UC Irvine School of Law
>
> 401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
>
> Irvine, CA 92697-8000
>
> 949.824.3072 - office
>
> rhasen at law.uci.edu
>
> http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
>
> http://electionlawblog.org
>
> [image: signature_881605890]
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Law-election mailing list
> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> https://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election

-- 
Dr. Carl Klarner
Klarnerpolitics.org
Former Associate Professor of Political Science
Academic & Consultant
Carl.Klarner at gmail.com
Cell: 812-514-9060
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