[EL] Equalizing CVAP without citizenship question

[Douglas Johnson]

All of those options include both measurable and unmeasurable margins of
error, the former of which could be calculated and used to determine the
odds that all the districts are within the allowed spread. For Congress,
that’s near-impossible. It might work for some legislative plans.

- Doug

On Thu, Jun 27, 2019 at 6:53 PM Kogan, Vladimir <kogan.18 at osu.edu> wrote:

> Relatedly, is there anything that would prevent the Trump administration
> from directing the Census Bureau to put out block level CVAP estimates by
> appending Census counts to other administrative data (which critics of the
> citizenship questions have argued all along provide more accurate
> citizenship info) for easy redistricting use?
>
>
>
> *From:* Kogan, Vladimir
> *Sent:* Thursday, June 27, 2019 9:15 PM
> *To:* Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
> *Subject:* Equalizing CVAP without citizenship question
>
>
>
> Question: Suppose that (1) the citizenship question stays off the 2020
> census and (2) at least one state decides to redistrict by equalizing CVAP
> anyway using the American Community Survey citizenship estimates (combined
> with the 2020 population counts).
>
>
>
> Have any courts ruled on the question of how to navigate population
> equality requirements with data subject to considerable statistical
> uncertainty due to sampling? I know CVAP is used all the time in the
> context of VRA compliance; are there any cases from that area that speak to
> this question? (I realize *Evenwel* left open the question of whether
> equalizing CVAP was permissible, but it seems like there are five votes on
> that question.)
>
>
>
> Thanks!
>
>
>
> Vlad
>
>
>
> [image: The Ohio State University]
> *Vladimir Kogan*, Associate Professor
> *Department of Political Science*
>
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> 510/415-4074 Mobile
>
> 614/292-9498 Office
>
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>
> http://u.osu.edu/kogan.18/
>
> kogan.18 at osu.edu
>
> [image: Twitter icon]@vkoganosu <https://twitter.com/vkoganosu>
>
>
>
>
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-- 
- Doug

Douglas Johnson
National Demographics Corporation
djohnson at NDCresearch.com
phone 310-200-2058
fax 818-254-1221
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