[EL] New Paper on IRV/RCV

[Kogan, Vladimir]

Thought this paper might interest folks on this list: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11127-019-00723-2

The prevalence and consequences of ballot truncation in ranked-choice elections
In ranked-choice elections, voters vote by indicating their preference orderings over the candidates. A ballot is truncated when the ordering is incomplete (called partial voting). Sometimes truncation is forced-voters are allowed to rank only a limited number of candidates-but sometimes it is voluntary. During the vote tabulating process, a truncated ballot is exhausted when all of the candidates it ranks have been eliminated. Ballot exhaustion and, therefore ballot truncation, is a concern in single-winner elections when the margin of victory in the final stage is less than the number of exhausted ballots. That concern motivates our study. We review evidence from actual single-winner ranked-choice elections and conclude that voluntary ballot truncation is very common. Moreover, it is difficult to explain strategically. To assess the significance of ballot truncation, we simulate ranked-choice elections with four, five and six candidates, using both spatial and random models of voter preferences. Does truncation change the probability that a Condorcet winner wins the election? Does the winner change as the extent of truncation increases? We find that even small amounts of truncation can alter election outcomes.

(Cue Rob Ritchie ;)

Vlad

[The Ohio State University]
Vladimir Kogan, Associate Professor and Director of Undergraduate Studies
Department of Political Science
2004 Derby Hall | 154 N. Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1373
510/415-4074 Mobile
614/292-9498 Office
614/292-1146
http://u.osu.edu/kogan.18/
kogan.18 at osu.edu<mailto:kogan.18 at osu.edu>
[Twitter icon]@vkoganosu<https://twitter.com/vkoganosu>


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