[EL] Stacey Abrams fact check

Wed Oct 30 12:34:48 PDT 2019

I would add to that what election admins have told me in MS, which has zero
registration modernization laws but does match voter records with DMV
records through their database software.

*After* a triggering event, say jury duty, if the mail returns as
undeliverable then they can check the DMV match option and if there is a
new address, they can update it, and *then mail a new registration card. If
they do not match, then they would send the contact letter and mark the
voter as inactive.

What I am certain though, in MS again, this practice is not uniform.

Lia Merivaki

On Wed, Oct 30, 2019, 2:20 PM Tierney Sneed <tmsneed27 at gmail.com> wrote:

> This may not directly answer your question, but I know in Ohio — which
> does not have AVR but does have a non-contact trigger — LaRose implemented
> a policy in the latest purge to treat address changes/confirmations at the
> DMV (known as the BMV there) as a form of contact that got voters off the
> purge list.  Activists were pushing for LaRose to consult the records of
> other state agencies to trim the purge list as well, but his office told me
> that wasn't possible.
>
>
>
> On Wed, Oct 30, 2019 at 2:53 PM Charles H Stewart <cstewart at mit.edu>
> wrote:
>
>> Margaret’s post brought to mind a question I’ve had, related to AVR and
>> the NVRA trigger of non-contact (not really not voting) across two federal
>> elections.
>>
>>
>>
>> In Georgia, or other states with AVR, if you change your address through
>> your interaction with the DMV, and that address change follows through to
>> the voter rolls, does this count as contact/interaction with the election
>> jurisdiction?
>>
>>
>>
>> I’ve love to hear from anyone who knows the answer to this question,
>> either in Georgia or other AVR states.
>>
>>
>>
>> Thanks,
>>
>>
>>
>> Charles
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>> Charles Stewart III
>>
>> Kenan Sahin Distinguished Professor of Political Science
>>
>> The Massachusetts Institute of Technology
>>
>> Cambridge, Massachusetts   02139
>>
>> 617-253-3127
>>
>> cstewart at mit.edu
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Law-election [mailto:
>> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf Of *Margaret
>> Groarke
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, October 30, 2019 1:34 PM
>> *Cc:* Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
>> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Stacey Abrams fact check
>>
>>
>>
>> Bullock says, " *Georgia** purges lots of voters because of death,
>> moving or not voting in recent elections, but it also makes it very easy to
>> register because of automatic voter registration (AVR) when people obtain
>> driver’s licenses" *but it is not legal, under the NVRA, to remove
>> people for not voting in recent elections. Georgia does mail people with
>> whom it has not had contact in 3 years, and puts nonresponders on an
>> inactive list, preparatory to removing them if they don't vote in the next
>> two federal elections. While the aspiration is that this is a proxy for
>> identifying people who have moved or died, it has all too frequently led to
>> the removal of people who are in fact breathing, and in many cases, voting.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Oct 30, 2019 at 12:00 PM John Tanner <john.k.tanner at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> One inference would be that the Democratic nominee for lt governor had
>> alienated some minority voters, perhaps in the course of defeating her
>> black primary opponent.   It happens. Someone from Georgia may have some
>> insight.
>>
>> Kessler often overlooks alternative explanations.
>>
>>
>>
>> Sent from my iPhone
>>
>>
>> On Oct 30, 2019, at 11:43 AM, Pildes, Rick <rick.pildes at nyu.edu> wrote:
>>
>> Can someone explain the last point noted in Kessler’s story, which I
>> don’t understand.  The point is that there was a 4.2% undervote in the
>> lieutenant governor’s race, compared (I assume) to the vote in the
>> Governor’s race.  And that this undervote was more prevalent in minority
>> precincts.
>>
>>
>>
>> But what is that supposed to tell us about potential issues concerning
>> the Governor’s race?  I don’t see it having any bearing on that race.
>>
>>
>>
>> The odd fact here is that the undervote was much larger for the Lt. Gov’s
>> race (4.2%) compared to less significant races, such as Secretary of State
>> (1.4%) or School Superintendent (1.9%).  So that does raise questions about
>> what happened re voting in the Lt. Gov’s race.
>>
>>
>>
>> But again, what inference about the vote numbers in the Governor’s race
>> is even being suggested by this point?
>>
>>
>>
>> Best,
>>
>> Rick
>>
>>
>>
>> Richard H. Pildes
>>
>> Sudler Family Professor of Constitutional Law
>>
>> NYU School of Law
>>
>> 40 Washington Sq. So.
>>
>> NYC, NY 10012
>>
>> 212 998-6377
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Law-election [
>> mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
>> <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>] *On Behalf Of *Smith,
>> Brad
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, October 30, 2019 11:20 AM
>> *To:* 'Rick Hasen' <rhasen at law.uci.edu>; Election Law Listserv <
>> law-election at uci.edu>
>> *Subject:* [EL] Stacey Abrams fact check
>>
>>
>>
>> *But it turns out this is a difficult situation to fact-check*
>>
>>
>>
>> Also from the full “fact check:”
>>
>> *Even if every provisional ballot not counted and every rejected absentee
>> ballot had been awarded to Abrams, it would not have necessitated a runoff,
>> much less overcome Abrams’s vote deficit.*
>>
>> *The 2018 turnout was far greater than any previous midterm, according to
>> FiveThirtyEight, and more African Americans voted in 2018 than in 2016.*
>>
>> *Georgia purges lots of voters because of death, moving or not voting in
>> recent elections, but it also makes it very easy to register because of
>> automatic voter registration (AVR) when people obtain driver’s licenses.
>> Registration has grown 94 percent in Georgia because of automatic voter
>> registration, according to the Brennan Center.*
>>
>> *“Abrams was very effective in mobilizing her supporters, but in the end
>> — perhaps due to a narrowing of the enthusiasm gap following the [Brett]
>> Kavanaugh hearings — lots of Republicans also turned out,” said Charles S.
>> Bullock III, political science professor at the University of Georgia. “The
>> claim is not based on fact but will continue to be articulated by Abrams
>> since it helps mobilize her supporters.” …*
>>
>>
>>
>> *Hasen said. “I have seen no good social science evidence that efforts to
>> make it harder to register and vote were responsible for Kemp’s victory
>> over Abrams in the Georgia gubernatorial race. …*
>>
>>
>>
>> *Buttigieg suggested his statement was a factual claim, not in dispute,
>> though it’s really more of an opinion.*
>>
>>
>>
>> Glenn Kessler is probably the best of the “fact checkers” out there, but
>> is this “fact check” really that hard? Perhaps it depends—is Buttigieg
>> making a statement of fact, a statement of opinion, or an supported
>> interpretation of facts?
>>
>>
>>
>> This illustrates nicely the problems with recent demands that the
>> government, or perhaps Facebook, police ads for accuracy. I think Rick is
>> exactly right—there’s really no good evidence for the Abrams/Buttigieg
>> claim. Thus, most people would conclude that it is false. (I also agree
>> with Rick when he adds, “That seems to me to be beside the point: The
>> question is whether Georgia had a good reason to put these …  measures in
>> place,…” at least if we’re discussing whether such laws are good or bad, as
>> opposed to discussing whether Ms. Abrams was cheated out of the
>> governorship). But can we really insist that Buttigieg’s statement is
>> false? I would normally respond to good ole’ Mayor Pete by saying or his
>> statement “that’s not true,” but I’m sure he would insist that it is. And
>> listeners would have to decide.
>>
>> Which leads us to ask: would Buttigieg have FB refuse an ad in a future
>> race involving Abrams that criticizes her by saying, “Stacey Abrams
>> continues to insist that she lost because of vote suppression-a delusional
>> claim not supported by good social science evidence.” Conversely, what
>> would Buttigieg, or those on the left fighting off feinting fits because
>> Facebook isn’t fighting false advertising, think if Facebook refused to
>> accept a Buttigieg ad saying, “Racially motivated patterns of voter
>> suppression are responsible for Stacey Abrams not being governor of Georgia
>> right now,” citing a lack of evidence for the claim?
>>
>>
>>
>> Bradley A. Smith
>>
>> Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault
>>
>>   Professor of Law
>>
>> Capital University Law School
>>
>> 303 E. Broad Street
>>
>> Columbus, OH 43214
>>
>> (617) 236-6317
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> *On
>> Behalf Of *Rick Hasen
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, October 30, 2019 10:55 AM
>> *To:* Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
>> *Subject:* [EL] ELB News and Commentary 10/30/19
>>
>> <image001.png>
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.addtoany.com_share-23url-3Dhttps-253A-252F-252Felectionlawblog.org-252F-253Fp-253D107842-26title-3D-25E2-2580-259CFBI-2520Documents-253A-2520Kobach-2520Hired-2520A-2520Criminal-2520Investigator-2520With-2520No-2520Law-2520Enforcement-2520Experience-25E2-2580-259D&d=DwMFAg&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=XSgtawx7EN0-PpbpY-_ujDdn40Al7ekifLrx25xIF0o&s=lqarix9xMUB9lObH52ezD7aS5MZXIOmMRDlk4ZKd2oI&e=>
>>
>> Posted in fraudulent fraud squad
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__linkprotect.cudasvc.com_url-3Fa-3Dhttps-253a-252f-252felectionlawblog.org-252f-253fcat-253d8-26c-3DE-2C1-2CitzVrzvaItok9nfyTb-5F0Xli3bVqZ-2DEwkFFcLxyzwkTzUwTQ-5FmLSGpNEoep9UUXqkuyJIcgs-2DSqsJv9a48Mhl3E6IKddDaCG226B8y0P9E-5FfL-26typo-3D1&d=DwMFAg&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=XSgtawx7EN0-PpbpY-_ujDdn40Al7ekifLrx25xIF0o&s=zJB7bojCxljGj_Ic17M9g5u3MioVKQRiapthjrc4URI&e=>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> “Did racially motivated voter suppression thwart Stacey Abrams?”
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__linkprotect.cudasvc.com_url-3Fa-3Dhttps-253a-252f-252felectionlawblog.org-252f-253fp-253d107840-26c-3DE-2C1-2CI3-2Dx03EWmZIN1nVvPRZshEXFSFyDbreUL3Keu-5FHcjf-2D4V4pEQqAsf7fUwtpPXqY9PyqOoYDmoprs85OoO98uMI6aC8yXAXG9jpv1VqgWtv3Pgk4b-26typo-3D1&d=DwMFAg&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=XSgtawx7EN0-PpbpY-_ujDdn40Al7ekifLrx25xIF0o&s=oRm58x7-qE82g1wStHTSR84Nw_4k9U2khQq6MS3rjRo&e=>
>>
>> Posted on October 30, 2019 7:45 am
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__linkprotect.cudasvc.com_url-3Fa-3Dhttps-253a-252f-252felectionlawblog.org-252f-253fp-253d107840-26c-3DE-2C1-2CJKAaH4oTrc37pJTZXn77kF-5Fox4L3i7wZVpAgEYziS7rt-5FTM7equn24p-2D3sZdciLqQU6gP0He6Bb353y3koMT-2DjEK6NVUvrC9qhSCXtCIsNlWUlzFVkGltWrc-26typo-3D1&d=DwMFAg&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=XSgtawx7EN0-PpbpY-_ujDdn40Al7ekifLrx25xIF0o&s=xL3cVlWXIyQH28-K5s3eqb31g2iuwWzVYaUzhL2RjfU&e=>
>>  by *Rick Hasen*
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__linkprotect.cudasvc.com_url-3Fa-3Dhttps-253a-252f-252felectionlawblog.org-252f-253fauthor-253d3-26c-3DE-2C1-2CFAaKWkznEOXh-5FRaNAlBWY-2DzxyNDl6-5F4s4TsgMGM5M72f-5FRGOtr75BhmiIQTuTkzSjx0aTNpiJ3ZUx6tVjTbpFOiYslmn-5FmcxI486ckL3M2I-2C-26typo-3D1&d=DwMFAg&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=XSgtawx7EN0-PpbpY-_ujDdn40Al7ekifLrx25xIF0o&s=BGBHNGNOouAJd-swXDCrM2Rbpj2kLlzZibg1MJG4fwg&e=>
>>
>> WaPo Fact Checker:
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.washingtonpost.com_politics_2019_10_30_did-2Dracially-2Dmotivated-2Dvoter-2Dsuppression-2Dthwart-2Dstacey-2Dabrams_&d=DwMFAg&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=XSgtawx7EN0-PpbpY-_ujDdn40Al7ekifLrx25xIF0o&s=ekA3T-muRM0phYSN5D5t9LOrv7UjGY_tVx86ErMVWAU&e=>
>>
>> *“Racially motivated patterns of voter suppression are responsible for
>> Stacey Abrams not being governor of Georgia right now.”*
>> * — South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D), in remarks in Bow, N.H.,
>> Oct. 25, 2019*
>>
>>
>> * It has become an article of faith among Democrats, especially those
>> running for president, that Stacey Abrams was narrowly denied the
>> governorship of Georgia because of voter suppression. It is equally an
>> article of faith by Republicans that this is a false claim based on no
>> evidence.*
>>
>>
>> * Buttigieg’s remark caught our attention because he specifically said
>> that the voter suppression was racially motivated and that it tipped the
>> balance toward Republican Brian Kemp — who was directly responsible for
>> overseeing the voting because he retained his post of secretary of state
>> while he sought the governorship.*
>>
>> *But it turns out this is a difficult situation to fact-check, and not
>> quite as easy as the case **when we gave Four Pinocchios*
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.washingtonpost.com_politics_2019_03_06_hillary-2Dclintons-2Dclaims-2Dabout-2Dvoter-2Dsuppression-2Dgeorgia-2Dwisconsin_-3Ftid-3Dlk-5Finline-5Fmanual-5F8&d=DwMFAg&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=XSgtawx7EN0-PpbpY-_ujDdn40Al7ekifLrx25xIF0o&s=9yLUCFIzsMOKoLu0TBlFv7ZMg-3bdyZT9TbNHxqJb1I&e=>* to
>> Hillary Clinton for claiming she lost Wisconsin in 2016 because of voter
>> suppression or **Four Pinocchios to Sen. Cory Booker*
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.washingtonpost.com_politics_2019_08_02_bookers-2Dclaim-2Dthat-2Ddemocrats-2Dlost-2Dmichigan-2Dbecause-2Drussian-2Dgop-2Dsuppression_-3Ftid-3Dlk-5Finline-5Fmanual-5F8&d=DwMFAg&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=XSgtawx7EN0-PpbpY-_ujDdn40Al7ekifLrx25xIF0o&s=fGwrZxT8QaIvc8jG4l3BYmNAVkg54JGvuikA9rBn_80&e=>* (D-N.J.)
>> for claiming Russian efforts to suppress African American votes led to
>> Clinton’s loss of Michigan. …*
>>
>>
>>
>> *Hasen, the UC Irvine expert, said the practices used under Kemp raise
>> serious questions even if one cannot prove they affected the election
>> outcome. “There is no question that Georgia in general and Brian Kemp in
>> particular took steps to make it harder for people to register and vote,
>> and that those people tended to skew Democratic,” Hasen said. “I have seen
>> no good social science evidence that efforts to make it harder to register
>> and vote were responsible for Kemp’s victory over Abrams in the Georgia
>> gubernatorial race. That seems to me to be beside the point: The question
>> is whether Georgia had a good reason to put these suppressive measures in
>> place, and for the most part, the state did not have good reasons.”*
>>
>> <image001.png>
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.addtoany.com_share-23url-3Dhttps-253A-252F-252Felectionlawblog.org-252F-253Fp-253D107840-26title-3D-25E2-2580-259CDid-2520racially-2520motivated-2520voter-2520suppression-2520thwart-2520Stacey-2520Abrams-253F-25E2-2580-259D&d=DwMFAg&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=XSgtawx7EN0-PpbpY-_ujDdn40Al7ekifLrx25xIF0o&s=W30MNOtbO6RUl6yqcs0jXjj-OdbAe_P4kPkTnByDm-U&e=>
>>
>> Posted in The Voting Wars
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__linkprotect.cudasvc.com_url-3Fa-3Dhttps-253a-252f-252felectionlawblog.org-252f-253fcat-253d60-26c-3DE-2C1-2CmWAGuelP-5FO-2Dh5uub-5FHkZn2JMJ78yzid83oZCLAWaLCLWh8p2ayGgfjJpqfY6jGsgvePE7njxIwv7Eaz6sW2ZMT3STPEHHojp6rWtyptpIQ-2C-2C-26typo-3D1&d=DwMFAg&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=XSgtawx7EN0-PpbpY-_ujDdn40Al7ekifLrx25xIF0o&s=LC_M6N2Wiomkj9dvdoIQtC4QECVJB4Pe1OlFBiUMGeY&e=>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
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>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> *Margaret Groarke*
>>
>> *Professor, Political Science*
>>
>> *Coordinator, Community Engaged Learning*
>>
>> https://jaspercommunityengagement.blogspot.com/
>>
>> Riverdale, NY 10471
>>
>> Phone: 718-862-7943
>>
>> Fax: 718-862-8044
>>
>> margaret.groarke at manhattan.edu <name.name at manhattan.edu>
>>
>> www.manhattan.edu
>>
>>
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