[EL] Minority Success in Non-Majority Minority Districts

[David Lublin]

Dear Colleagues:

My new article coauthored with Lisa Handley, Bernie Grofman and Tom Brunell, "Minority Success in Non-Majority Minority Districts: Finding the “Sweet Spot”," updates our past work on the election of African Americans and Latinos to the U.S. House and state legislatures.

You can locate it on FirstView in the Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics at https://doi.org/10.1017/rep.2019.24. If you'd like me to email you a .pdf copy, please contact me directly.

Abstract: Though African-American and Latino electoral success in state legislative and congressional elections continues to occur almost entirely in majority-minority districts, minorities now have new opportunities in districts that are only 40–50% minority. This success can primarily be explained in terms of a curvilinear model that generates a “sweet spot” of maximum likelihood of minority candidate electoral success as a function of minority population share of the district and the proportion of the district that votes Republican. Past racial redistricting legal challenges often focused on cracking concentrated racial minorities to prevent the creation of majority-minority districts. Future lawsuits may also follow in the steps of recent successful court challenges against racially motivated packing that resulted in the reduction of minority population percentage in a previously majority-minority district in order to enhance minority opportunity in an adjacent non-majority-minority district.

Best regards,
David

--
David Lublin
Professor of Government
School of Public Affairs
American University
4400 Massachusetts Ave.
Washington, D.C. 20016
http://davidlublin.com/
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