[EL] How Many Absentee Votes Would Normally Be Expected in WI

[James Bopp Jr]

This discussion is very interesting but the terminology that is being used is confusing.

I understand that there is a difference between schemes for mail in balloting and absentee balloting.  "Mail in balloting" schemes involve just sending out ballots to all registered voters while "absentee balloting" typically require an application first and the ballot is then "mailed" to the voter.  This is a big difference and you would expect a much higher return rate for absentee balloting than just the wholesale mailing out of ballots.
Could we please agree to use the correct terminology rather than conflating these two very different schemes by referring to them both under the term "mail ballots."
 
At least I would then know what someone is talking about. Jim Bopp
In a message dated 4/8/2020 9:50:48 AM US Eastern Standard Time, LNielson at forsmarshgroup.com writes:

2018 general election data tells the same story—Wisconsin transmitted 168,788 mail ballots and 150,114 were returned, for a rate of 89%. I would expect about 1.13-1.15 million returned mail ballots based on these trends. Of course, another big story here is that mail ballot requests/transmissions have gone up by an order of magnitude for this election.

  

Wisconsin also has a pretty high count rate—in the 2016 and 2018 general elections, about 99% of returned ballots were counted. Given the explosion in the number of mail ballot requests for this election, I would be interested to see if that rate goes down.

  

-----

Lindsay Nielson, Ph.D.

Senior Researcher | Fors Marsh Group

lnielson at forsmarshgroup.com

forsmarshgroup.com

 


  

From: Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> On Behalf Of Michael Morley
Sent: Wednesday, April 8, 2020 9:36 AM
To: Pildes, Rick <rick.pildes at nyu.edu>; Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
Subject: Re: [EL] How Many Absentee Votes Would Normally Be Expected in WI

 

According to the EAC's 2016 EAVs report, in the 2016 general election, Wisconsin transmitted 158,846 absentee ballots and 139,988 were returned (88%).   Obviously a presidential primary isn't completely comparable, but it may be a helpful data point.


 


Nationwide, BTW, about 41.7 million absentee ballots were transmitted in that race, and 33.4 million were returned.  That reflects the 80% estimate you referenced. 


 


 


From: Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> on behalf of Pildes, Rick <rick.pildes at nyu.edu>
Sent: Wednesday, April 8, 2020 9:23 AM
To: Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
Subject: [EL] How Many Absentee Votes Would Normally Be Expected in WI




I might post on this, but before doing so, I wanted to check a figure with election administrators or others on the list –

 

My understanding is that election administrators normally expect about 80% of the absentee ballots that are sent out to be returned.

 

If that’s a correct rule of thumb, how do things look as of now in WI?  There were 1.287 M requests for absentee ballots (I will use that higher figure, rather than the number sent out, which is about 12,000 lower).  80% of that would be 1.03 M, which would be the number of absentee ballots we would then normally expect to be returned.

 

As of 7.30 am today, 1.02 M absentee ballots have been returned.  That number will continue to grow over the next week, given that these ballots are valid if received by April 13th.  

 

I have not tracked down data on this, but I assume others can tell me whether that 80% figure is roughly correct under normal circumstances.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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