[EL] Rick's Compromise more news 4/9/20

Thu Apr 9 14:16:06 PDT 2020

In between (1) "mail-in ballots sent to any voter who requests one" and (2)
"mail-in ballots automatically delivered to all registered voters," Rick
proposes a middle ground:  (3) The state *invites *all voters to *request *a
ballot, and sends them to all who request it.

Given the rest of Rick's column--especially his representation that there's
been very little fraud in those states that use Option 2 (ballots sent to
everyone), I'm not sure I see the substantive virtues of Rick's compromise,
which would only interject yet another administrative step into the
process, with very little payoff.

But I think most of us will agree that Rick is right that states ought to *at
least *opt for process #3.  If so, what's the argument for Congress not
requiring states to do so?

On Thu, Apr 9, 2020 at 4:59 PM Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu> wrote:

> “Trump is wrong about the dangers of absentee ballots”
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110594>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 1:49 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110594>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> I have written this oped
> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/09/trump-is-wrong-about-dangers-absentee-ballots/> in
> the Washington Post. Some excerpts:
>
> *President Trump has recently come out against expanding voting by mail,
> despite the fact that he regularly votes by mail himself. He tweeted
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__twitter.com_realDonaldTrump_status_1247861952736526336&d=DwMGaQ&c=RAhzPLrCAq19eJdrcQiUVEwFYoMRqGDAXQ_puw5tYjg&r=Et5YdIyy-C0W2BTIH62ehqB-arbKzolU7qDKR2mCSoY&m=wmpO_bzMQK2sjHAnFS_A_kbLVwyUGrFRajoKzsP7Bwc&s=jjuV8moGPT8qgj2uhEhc0AA_EoJK4LiAoaj0wGtXgQE&e=>that
> it has “Tremendous potential for voter fraud and, for whatever reason,
> doesn’t work out well for Republicans.” Given that expanded mail-in voting
> is going to be an inevitable piece of the November election because of
> the coronavirus pandemic
> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/08/coronavirus-latest-news-2/?tid=lk_inline_manual_3&itid=lk_inline_manual_3>,
> it is important that Americans understand what risks come from voting by
> mail and what can be done about those risks before November, so that voters
> can have confidence that the election can be fairly conducted, in part,
> through mail-in balloting….*
>
> *According to the well-constructed News21
> <https://votingrights.news21.com/article/about/> database
> <https://votingrights.news21.com/interactive/election-fraud-database/>,
> absentee-ballot ballot fraud made up 24.2 percent of all reported
> prosecutions of election crimes between 2000 and 2012. But the total number
> of cases was just 491 — during a period in which literally billions of
> votes were cast. While certain pockets of the country have seen their share
> of absentee-ballot scandals, problems are extremely rare in the five states
> <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/all-mail-elections.aspx> that
> rely primarily on vote-by-mail, including the heavily Republican state of
> Utah.*
>
> *Election design requires tradeoffs. Many states offer absentee balloting
> because they realize that the tremendous convenience to voters outweighs
> the small risk of fraud. Now, of course, the covid-19 pandemic has
> radically elevated the risk of gathering at polling stations, making
> mail-in balloting a crucial alternative….*
>
> *o begin with, states need to be prepared to thwart and prosecute any
> attempts to tamper with ballots. The federal government dragged its feet on
> investigating the North Carolina case, despite being tipped off
> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/justice-officials-from-washington-were-briefed-months-ago-on-allegations-against-mccrae-dowless-operative-at-center-of-nc-election-fraud-scandal/2019/01/11/4c333722-15db-11e9-a896-f104373c7ffd_story.html?tid=lk_inline_manual_15&itid=lk_inline_manual_15> by
> state election officials well before the 2018 election.*
>
> *Next, states should send an application for an absentee ballot to every
> voter listed on voting rolls. They should not send the ballot itself until
> a voter requests one, since voting rolls in many states unfortunately are
> not accurate enough. Voters should also be allowed to request absentee
> ballots online.*
>
> *States should also prevent the unlimited collection of absentee ballots
> by private individuals — sometimes pejoratively referred to as “ballot
> harvesting.” North Carolina prohibited unlimited collection, but that ban
> was not enforced and collection allowed the actual ballot tampering that
> took place. I favor Colorado’s system which allows one person to collect no
> more than 10 ballots. There are some voters who need assistance getting
> their votes to the U.S. mail or to a state collection box, such as some on
> Native American reservations or those who are elderly or disabled. States
> should also ensure that ballot collection limitations do not put additional
> burdens on minority voters, as a federal court recently found
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.azcentral.com_story_news_politics_elections_2020_01_27_arizona-2Dballot-2Dharvesting-2Dlaw-2Ddiscriminates-2Dminority-2Dvoters-2Dninth-2Dcircuit_4589610002_&d=DwMGaQ&c=RAhzPLrCAq19eJdrcQiUVEwFYoMRqGDAXQ_puw5tYjg&r=kbTVoB5gjC_YpSg2242OoUwGi-pj-EugYa6z5JyEeVE&m=hTNIDTNT8GSRzbRdISUNa-rVunbkzhLkbGzRE9NdYhw&s=fRh45Znv1njFPeSTOZ3AvRkBQiMFct8zNJbBybpVSt0&e=> happened
> in Arizona.*
>
> *Finally, we should not forget that absentee ballots are more likely to be
> rejected than ballots cast in person, often because of voter error that
> cannot be corrected as it can in person. Absentee voters should be told if
> their ballots are being rejected for technical reasons — such as a
> purported mismatched signature — and have the chance to cure the problem
> and have their ballot counted.*
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110594&title=%E2%80%9CTrump%20is%20wrong%20about%20the%20dangers%20of%20absentee%20ballots%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in election administration <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>
>
>
>
>
> “Liberals contend they were shut out of Wisconsin Supreme Court election
> deliberations” <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110592>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 1:31 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110592>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports.
> <https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/09/wisconsin-election-liberals-say-they-were-shut-out-courts-debate/5124668002/>
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110592&title=%E2%80%9CLiberals%20contend%20they%20were%20shut%20out%20of%20Wisconsin%20Supreme%20Court%20election%20deliberations%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> “Trump’s wild claims of voter fraud blow back on campaign aide”
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110590>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 1:19 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110590>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Politico
> <https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/04/09/trumps-wild-claims-of-voter-fraud-blow-back-on-campaign-aide-1274383>
> :
>
> *Days before President Donald Trump deceptively called vote-by-mail
> “corrupt” and damaging to Republicans, his campaign hired an operative tied
> to a 2012 absentee ballot scheme that sent a Florida Democratic operative
> to jail.*
>
> *The plot involving Giancarlo Sopo — who has never been charged with
> wrongdoing — was highlighted in a report on election fraud that Trump’s
> campaign blasted out Wednesday to support his wild vote-by-mail attacks
> <https://www.nytimes.com/article/mail-in-voting-explained.html>. Sopo
> joined the Trump campaign April 1.*
>
> *“The national news media routinely and condescendingly dismiss any
> concerns about voter fraud, including state vote-by-mail provisions,” the
> campaign wrote in an email highlighting the Heritage Foundation report
> <https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/docs/pacei-voterfraudcases.pdf>,
> a document that was used by the president’s voter fraud task force,
> which failed to turn up proof
> <https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/03/trump-disbands-voter-fraud-commission-322621>of
> widespread voter fraud.*
>
> *The email, in addition to exposing an uncomfortable incident in a
> staffer’s past, highlights the exaggerated nature of the president’s
> attacks on voting by mail. The absentee ballot scheme involving Sopo wasn’t
> technically voter fraud, it was caught by authorities, and it never would
> have resulted in illegally cast ballots even if it hadn’t been stopped.*
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110590&title=%E2%80%9CTrump%E2%80%99s%20wild%20claims%20of%20voter%20fraud%20blow%20back%20on%20campaign%20aide%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> “America might survive coronavirus. But will the election?”
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110588>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 12:54 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110588>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> MIT Technology Review.
> <https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/998828/america-might-survive-coronavirus-but-will-the-presidential-election/>
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110588&title=%E2%80%9CAmerica%20might%20survive%20coronavirus.%20But%20will%20the%20election%3F%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> “McCarthy hits ‘disgusting’ Democratic push for mail-in-voting”
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110586>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 12:20 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110586>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Politico reports.
> <https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/09/mccarthy-mail-in-voting-177540>:
>
> *House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said it’s “disgusting”
> that Democrats are pushing to include money for mail-in voting in the next
> coronavirus relief bill, dismissing the idea as unnecessary despite the
> pandemic.*
>
> *“You want to hold up the bill because you want to change election law for
> November, because you think that gives you some political benefit?”
> McCarthy told reporters during a press call Thursday. “That’s disgusting to
> me. … Stop worrying about politics. Worry about what’s in front of us. And
> that’s the health of the nation … and our economy.”…*
>
> *Democrats counter that it’s precisely a public health issue: The virus
> could spread even further if in-person elections are carried out as usual
> this fall.*
>
> *“We have a different value system about what voting means to a democracy.
> And clearly, we want to remove all obstacles to participation,” Speaker
> Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told reporters on her own call later Thursday. “No
> surprise that [McCarthy] might dismiss opening doors of participation as
> something that is a plus, especially in a time of pandemic.”*
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110586&title=%E2%80%9CMcCarthy%20hits%20%E2%80%98disgusting%E2%80%99%20Democratic%20push%20for%20mail-in-voting%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> “No halt to culture wars during coronavirus outbreak”
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110584>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 12:14 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110584>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> AP: <https://apnews.com/7170d463325811aec975db5f69c491bb>
>
> *A partisan fight over voting in Wisconsin was the first issue linked to
> the coronavirus  <https://apnews.com/VirusOutbreak>to make it to the
> Supreme Court. Efforts to limit abortion during the pandemic could
> eventually land in the justices’ hands. Disputes over guns and religious
> freedom also are popping up around the country.*
>
> *The virus outbreak has put much of American life on hold, but the
> nation’s culture wars seem immune from the pandemic.*
>
> *And in a country deeply divided over politics, some liberals are accusing
> conservatives of using this crisis to advance long-held goals, especially
> in the areas of access to abortion and the ballot box. Conservatives have
> complained about restrictions on church services and gun shops.*
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110584&title=%E2%80%9CNo%20halt%20to%20culture%20wars%20during%20coronavirus%20outbreak%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> “Some Georgia absentee ballot request forms list wrong return address”
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110582>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 12:08 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110582>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> AJC:
> <https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/some-georgia-absentee-ballot-request-forms-list-wrong-return-address/YH11y0tXOVsbPEWZhLZ0XI/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWkROalpEZ3lOakl5WW1aayIsInQiOiJRcXZXS1doQmZ1NlZcL0pINlA0UjRwODI0UGFRa1c5RkdjV0w5dGN6R3lOOGI5TE1Yd2l6ZmNcL3BpWEFqUk5xd1dNZm5BMit4cUg2SHcxNUFVYTJZUnNIY2lkallJVk56Y1UyZ3lrdE9CUU9QR1hTY1wvdkNyN0FneWZLOVpjYWZ5eiJ9>
>
> *About 60,000 Georgia voters recently received absentee ballot request
> forms with the wrong return mailing or email address.*
>
> *Election officials said Wednesday that the absentee ballot requests
> <https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/voters-mailed-absentee-ballot-request-forms-for-may-georgia-primary/hc0FkOo85uVCALbWvQUo9L/> will
> be delivered to their correct destinations, even if voters send them to the
> erroneous pre-printed addresses.*
>
> *The misprints occurred among absentee ballot request forms mailed
> <https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-mail-absentee-ballot-request-forms-all-active-voters/s1ZcJ57g8qqIwyG6LNWfIM/> to
> Georgia’s 6.9 million active voters by the secretary of state’s office last
> week, an effort to encourage voting away from precincts
> <https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/loss-poll-workers-threatens-person-voting-georgia-primary/HxtIBEQ62cAkXDiraDlhUI/> during
> the coronavirus pandemic.*
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110582&title=%E2%80%9CSome%20Georgia%20absentee%20ballot%20request%20forms%20list%20wrong%20return%20address%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> “Trump condemns vote-by-mail, but the Florida GOP is counting on it to win”
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110580>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 12:07 pm <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110580>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Politico reports
> <https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/04/08/trump-condemns-vote-by-mail-but-the-florida-gop-is-counting-on-it-to-win-1274007>
> .
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110580&title=%E2%80%9CTrump%20condemns%20vote-by-mail%2C%20but%20the%20Florida%20GOP%20is%20counting%20on%20it%20to%20win%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> Henry Weinstein and I Discussed Voting in the Age of Covid 19, and My New
> Book Election Meltdown <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110577>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 11:59 am <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110577>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Listen to the UCI Law Talks podcast
> <https://www.law.uci.edu/podcast/episode30.html>.
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110577&title=Henry%20Weinstein%20and%20I%20Discussed%20Voting%20in%20the%20Age%20of%20Covid%2019%2C%20and%20My%20New%20Book%20Election%20Meltdown>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> This is Ironic: Anti-Campaign Finance Regulation Group “Citizens United”
> Asks the FEC for More Regulation (against the “Bloomberg Loophole)
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110574>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 11:53 am <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110574>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> See here.
> <http://www.citizensunited.org/latest-updates.aspx?article=11795>
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110574&title=This%20is%20Ironic%3A%20Anti-Campaign%20Finance%20Regulation%20Group%20%E2%80%9CCitizens%20United%E2%80%9D%20Asks%20the%20FEC%20for%20More%20Regulation%20(against%20the%20%E2%80%9CBloomberg%20Loophole)>
>
> Posted in campaign finance <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
>
>
>
>
> “Candidates Implore Courts to Loosen Signature Requirements to Get on Mass
> Ballot” <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110572>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 11:43 am <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110572>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Boston Globe reports.
> <https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/09/metro/candidates-implore-court-loosen-signature-requirements-get-mass-ballot/>
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110572&title=%E2%80%9CCandidates%20Implore%20Courts%20to%20Loosen%20Signature%20Requirements%20to%20Get%20on%20Mass%20Ballot%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> New Hampshire State Court Strikes Down Voting Domicile Law Aimed to Deter
> Student Voting as Violation of State Constitution
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110570>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 11:40 am <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110570>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> You can find the ruling at this link
> <https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/41/2020/04/433.pdf>
> .
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110570&title=New%20Hampshire%20State%20Court%20Strikes%20Down%20Voting%20Domicile%20Law%20Aimed%20to%20Deter%20Student%20Voting%20as%20Violation%20of%20State%20Constitution>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> “Coronavirus pandemic realigns US democracy”
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110568>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 11:33 am <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110568>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Listen
> <https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/to-the-point/coronavirus-pandemic-realigns-us-democracy> to
> KCRW’s To the Point:
>
> *But despite the coronavirus, bitter partisanship was alive and well this
> week in Wisconsin. The U.S. Supreme Court sided with Republican legislators
> and refused the Democratic governor’s last-minute demand to postpone the
> presidential primary.  *
>
> *Angry voters took a risk anyway, says Politico national correspondent
> Natasha Korecki. “Some of their faces were practically bandaged to keep
> them safe.  And it rained, and it was a hail storm, and they had umbrellas,
> and they were standing there … like something I’ve never seen before.” *
>
> *UC Irvine law professor Rick Hasen calls this a bad sign, as red and blue
> states prepare to hold November’s presidential elections. Hasen is  also
> author of “Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to
> American Democracy.
> <https://www.amazon.com/Election-Meltdown-Distrust-American-Democracy/dp/0300248199>”*
>
> *He defines the basic issue: “Republicans tend to believe that making it
> easier for people to register and vote helps the Democratic Party.”   *
>
> *Because of coronavirus restrictions, democrats want to revise voter ID,
> extend early voting, and make mail-in voting easier. Hasen notes, “We were
> already on track for the largest amount of election litigation … probably
> in the country’s history. COVID-19 is going to add, I think, tremendously
> to the burden on the courts.” *
>
> He adds, “In both the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the U.S. Supreme Court
> on the same day, the courts divided along partisan ideological lines. That
> is really a bad sign for November.”
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110568&title=%E2%80%9CCoronavirus%20pandemic%20realigns%20US%20democracy%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> “The Supreme Court Fails Us; The five conservative justices refused to
> extend the deadline for absentee ballots in Wisconsin in the middle of the
> pandemic. “ <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110562>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 11:29 am <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110562>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Linda Greenhouse NYT column
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/opinion/wisconsin-primary-supreme-court.html>
> .
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110562&title=%E2%80%9CThe%20Supreme%20Court%20Fails%20Us%3B%20The%20five%20conservative%20justices%20refused%20to%20extend%20the%20deadline%20for%20absentee%20ballots%20in%20Wisconsin%20in%20the%20middle%20of%20the%20pandemic.%20%E2%80%9C>
>
> Posted in Supreme Court <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>
>
>
>
>
> How Many Votes Did The Supreme Court’s Decision in WI Affect
> <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110563>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 10:47 am <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110563>
> by *Richard Pildes* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=7>
>
> I have put together some numbers and a framework for starting to assess
> this question (the numbers are taken from the Wisconsin Election
> Commission’s website today).
>
> As of now, it appears that the State managed to send out 12,216 fewer
> absentee ballots than were requested.  Let’s assume that 100% of those
> would have been sent out in enough time that they could have been
> postmarked and returned by April 13th, had the Supreme Court not reversed
> the district court on this issue.
>
> For those voters who did request and received an absentee ballot, about
> 81% of those ballots were actually returned.  If we use that same return
> rate, that means as a starting point we can expect that 9,894 more absentee
> ballots would have been returned (and I’ll assume there would have no
> problem with any of those ballots, such as not being valid because they
> lacked the required witness signature or for other reasons).
>
> But that’s not the number of votes that the Supreme Court’s decision
> prevented, in effect, from being cast, because some of those who did not
> receive their requested ballot showed up to vote in person.  If you read
> the local papers in WI, there are many interviews with voters in line on
> Tuesday who put themselves in that category (and who faced the health risks
> associated with voting in person).
>
> There is no way at the moment to estimate reliably the percent of these
> voters who were engaged enough to request a ballot and then showed up in
> person when that ballot didn’t arrive.  I’ll use a figure of 20%.  If
> that’s in the ballpark, it would mean the number of “lost votes”  would be
> 81% of 9,894 or 8,014 votes – that is, based on these assumptions, the
> Court’s decision means that 8,014 persons who would otherwise have voted,
> had the April 13th deadline remained in place, could not.
>
> For those interested in speculating about the partisan effects, let’s make
> an extreme assumption that these votes would have broken 70% to 30% in
> favor of one party.   That’s a massive landslide, certainly unlikely in WI,
> and not the way the rest of the absentee ballots are likely to break out
> (if we had demographic information on those who did not receive requested
> absentee ballots, we could make a more grounded estimate).  Using that
> extreme scenario, that would mean the disfavored party (I’ll say the
> Democrats) would have gotten 3,206 more votes had the Supreme Court
> affirmed the district court.
>
> If we think those ballots would have broken 55% to 45% for the Democrats,
> which is probably closer to realistic, that would mean 801 fewer Democratic
> votes than if the April 13th deadline had been in place  [these numbers
> don’t actually change much even if we unrealistically assume that *none *of
> these 9,894 voters showed up in person – in a 55/45 split, that would mean
> 989 fewer votes for the Democrats]
>
> To put that in the context of the overall vote, my guess as of now is that
> total turnout in WI will be between 1.1 M and 1.3 M votes.
>
> These numbers might need to be tweaked as we get more information, of
> course.
>
> [In another post, I will look at how that turnout level compares to what
> we would have expected under normal circumstances]
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110563&title=How%20Many%20Votes%20Did%20The%20Supreme%20Court%E2%80%99s%20Decision%20in%20WI%20Affect>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
> On Wisconsin Voting, Which is The Onion and Which is a Real Voter in the
> Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel? <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110560>
>
> Posted on April 9, 2020 9:30 am <https://electionlawblog.org/?p=110560>
> by *Rick Hasen* <https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> “People died for my right to vote, so if I have to take a risk to vote
> that’s what I have to”
> <https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/07/wisconsinites-vote-midst-coronavirus-pandemic/2960420001>
>
> “People died for our right to vote, so it’s only fair we die exercising
> it.”
> <https://www.theonion.com/wisconsin-holds-democratic-primary-despite-coronavirus-1842724287>
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D110560&title=On%20Wisconsin%20Voting%2C%20Which%20is%20The%20Onion%20and%20Which%20is%20a%20Real%20Voter%20in%20the%20Milwaukee%20Journal-Sentinel%3F>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Rick Hasen
>
> Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
>
> UC Irvine School of Law
>
> 401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
>
> Irvine, CA 92697-8000
>
> 949.824.3072 - office
>
> rhasen at law.uci.edu
>
> http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
>
> http://electionlawblog.org
>
>
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-- 
Marty Lederman
Georgetown University Law Center
600 New Jersey Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20001
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