[EL] Research on use of mail ballots by underrepresented groups

Fri Apr 10 13:12:00 PDT 2020

I think there is another explanation for ballots being dropped off at polling places that has nothing to do with trust in the postal system. It is procrastination. We have tracked the flow of absentee ballots into voter registration offices for at least 30 years to monitor and adjust our campaign mailing schedules. In that time there have been a number of changes in the system. It began as being available only on request and evolved to where it is now in California as a mix of Permanent Absentee Voter, requested absentee ballots, and areas that are mail only elections. Through all that the data on the flow of cast ballots has not changed. In the first week after the ballots are mailed to voters, less than 1 percent are returned. By the end of the second week it may reach 2 percent. 84 percent are received in the last 12 days, including what is turned in at the polls on Election Day. That number doesn’t seem to have changed even now that we allow ballots to arrive up to three days after Election Day. It’s possible that in California the denominator is so large that the extra ballots don’t alter the percentage. Procrastination, or simply waiting for more information, would seem a more likely cause than distrust in the postal system. Were it the latter, wouldn’t people be inclined to vote earlier to be sure the ballot was delivered in time?

Larry

From: Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> On Behalf Of Paul Gronke
Sent: Friday, 10 April 2020 11:39 AM
To: Kousser, Thad <tkousser at mail.ucsd.edu>
Cc: edu law-election at uci. edu law-election at uci. <law-election at uci.edu>
Subject: Re: [EL] Research on use of mail ballots by underrepresented groups

Thad

Timely posting! I was just describing this work on another email, and I’m glad to see my memory was accurate even in my advanced years!

The only thing I would caution against is assuming that the results you cite below are necessarily generalizable to all minority populations nationwide. 

Below, there is only one study that specifically inquires about trust in the Postal Service as an explanatory factor in choosing to drop a ballot off, or vote in person. It would be valuable to know how widespread these sentients are in other states, and whether these sentiments are a function of generally lower trust in government. 

It would also be valuable to now whether the patterns you describe as a function of pre-existing mobilization strategies rather than individual desires to return the ballot in a particular way, thus, the point of resistance isn’t the voter, but organizations that are reluctant to adapt to new methods of voting.

Yours, and hoping everyone is safe and healthy,

Paul Gronke

Professor, Reed College
Director, Early Voting Information Center
http://earlyvoting.net

On Apr 10, 2020, at 11:27 AM, Kousser, Thad <tkousser at mail.ucsd.edu <mailto:tkousser at mail.ucsd.edu> > wrote:

Hi All,

      I wanted to provide a citation for the study that I referred to in today's NYT article regarding how preferences for casting mail ballots vary across racial and ethnic groups in California, and to point to additional important research on this topic from USC's Mindy Romero:

This study from the University of California’s New Electorate Project (newelectorateproject.org <http://newelectorateproject.org/> ), authored by Mindy Romero, Eric McGhee, and myself, relies on a statewide poll of eligible voters in California after the 2018 primary to show that Latino and African-American voters were less likely to prefer casting a mail ballot, and Asian voters were more likely to prefer casting a mail ballot, than total voters in counties that adopted the Voters Choice Act.  

 <https://drive.google.com/file/d/105NpmORxoRZ2VVJxcDhGey7JQuccm5Sb/view> https://drive.google.com/file/d/105NpmORxoRZ2VVJxcDhGey7JQuccm5Sb/view

This study from USC’s California Civic Engagement Project, authored by Mindy Romero, finds that Latino voters are less likely to cast a mail ballot, and Asian voters are more likely to cast a mail ballot, than total voters in California in each general election from 2002-2012.  (Note that many of those who cast a mail ballot that was sent to them by a registrar do so by dropping it off at a polling place or another location).   

 <https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57b8c7ce15d5dbf599fb46ab/t/58e58499e4fcb5fc935614c6/1491436758841/VBM+Issue+Brief+Revised.pdf> https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57b8c7ce15d5dbf599fb46ab/t/58e58499e4fcb5fc935614c6/1491436758841/VBM+Issue+Brief+Revised.pdf

This study from USC’s California Civic Engagement Project, authored by Mindy Romero, relies on a 2016 statewide survey to find that Latino voters were less likely to vote by mail, and Asian voters were more likely to vote by mail than total voters in California in that year.  It also finds that, among voters who chose not to mail in their mail ballots, Latino, African American, and Asian voters were less likely than white voters to trust that the US Postal Service would deliver their ballot safely and on time.   

 <https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57b8c7ce15d5dbf599fb46ab/t/59b1bacc4c0dbf34e91dac0d/1504819977791/UCDavisCCEPIssueBrief3VoteCenterStatewideSurveyBrief.pdf> https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57b8c7ce15d5dbf599fb46ab/t/59b1bacc4c0dbf34e91dac0d/1504819977791/UCDavisCCEPIssueBrief3VoteCenterStatewideSurveyBrief.pdf

       Best, Thad 

Thad Kousser, Professor and Department Chair

Department of Political Science, UC San Diego

9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0521

858-534-3239

 <http://polisci.ucsd.edu/> http://polisci.ucsd.edu

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