[EL] Extraordinary Democratic Turnout in WI

[Pildes, Rick]

Turnout in the WI Democratic presidential primary was down only 7.6% from 2016.  That's extraordinary, because the Democratic primary this year was much less hotly contested than in 2016.  In the Sanders/Clinton contest, Sanders prevailed with 57% of the vote to Clinton's 43%.  This year, Biden nearly doubled Sanders' vote total, winning 63% of the vote to Sanders' 32%.  Turnout would normally fall some with a less competitive election.  The fact that it was down only 7.6% this year, given the circumstances, is thus remarkable.

The decline in turnout from 2016 is nearly all accounted for by the drop in turnout on the Republican side, as it turns out.  That decline isn't all that surprising, because the 2016 Republican primary was extremely competitive (Cruz 48%; Trump 35%; Kasich 14%), while the incumbent President was essentially unopposed this year.  Turnout would normally drop a lot in those circumstances and it was down 43% this year on the Republican side (for comparison, Democratic turnout in the 2012 primaries, with Obama as an incumbent, fell more than 70% from the Obama/Clinton 2008 contest).

I ran these numbers quickly this am, so I hope I've made no mistakes in the math.

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