[EL] ELB News and Commentary 4/29/20

Tue Apr 28 21:22:40 PDT 2020

“‘The Nightmare Scenario’: How Coronavirus Could Make the 2020 Vote a Disaster Trump can’t cancel the presidential election. Here’s what you should really be worrying about.”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111054>
Posted on April 28, 2020 9:20 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111054> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Zack Stanton does a Q and A <https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/28/2020-election-coronavirus-disaster-impact-215559> with me for Politico Magazine.
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Posted in Election Meltdown<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=127>

“Two-Thirds of Americans Expect Presidential Election Will Be Disrupted by COVID-19; Sizable majority favors option of voting by mail”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111052>
Posted on April 28, 2020 9:11 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111052> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Pew Research Center<https://www.people-press.org/2020/04/28/two-thirds-of-americans-expect-presidential-election-will-be-disrupted-by-covid-19/>:

With just over six months until Election Day, two-thirds of Americans (67%) – including 80% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and half of Republicans and Republican leaners – say it is very or somewhat likely that the coronavirus outbreak will significantly disrupt people’s ability to vote in the presidential election.

The national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted April 7 to 12 among 4,917 U.S. adults on the Center’s American Trends Panel, finds broad public support for giving voters the option of voting by mail – and less widespread but growing support for conducting all elections by mail.

Overall, 70% favor allowing any voter to vote by mail if they want to, including 44% who strongly support this policy. About half of the public (52%) favors conducting all elections by mail. The share supporting this proposal has increased 18 percentage points since 2018.

While most Americans expect the coronavirus to affect the presidential election, majorities are at least somewhat confident that it will be conducted fairly and accurately (59%) and that all citizens who want to will be able to vote (63%).

But as is the case with most attitudes about the conduct of elections and proposals on voting, partisans are sharply divided in these views. Large majorities of Republicans are confident that the election will be conducted fairly and accurately (75%) and that all citizens who want to vote will be able to do so (87%).

Democrats are considerably less confident: 46% are confident in the fairness and accuracy of the November election, and just 43% are confident all citizens will be able to vote if they want to.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“Rep. Justin Amash to seek Libertarian Party nomination for president”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111050>
Posted on April 28, 2020 9:06 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111050> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Weigel:<https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/rep-justin-amash-to-seek-libertarian-party-nomination-for-president/2020/04/28/482b7de6-89b2-11ea-8ac1-bfb250876b7a_story.html>

It’s unclear whether a bid by Amash would have a greater effect on Biden or on Trump. In 2019, a Detroit News poll<https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/05/amash-presidential-bid-hurts-biden-michigan/1331256001/> found Biden leading Trump in Michigan, a state that has grown more uncertain for the president, by 12 points. With Amash as an option, Biden’s lead shrunk to six points, with some independents and Republicans moving away from the Democrat. But national polling of Amash has been sparse, and it’s unclear how many states the Libertarian Party will attain ballot access in as the coronavirus<https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/28/what-you-need-know-about-coronavirus/?tid=lk_inline_manual_13&itid=lk_inline_manual_13> pandemic makes traditional signature-gathering impossible.
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Posted in ballot access<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=46>, third parties<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=47>

“How can California improve confidence in elections? Count the vote faster”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111048>
Posted on April 28, 2020 9:00 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111048> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

John Wildermuth<https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/How-can-California-improve-confidence-in-15232410.php> of the SF Chronicle:

A ballot count that lasts for weeks, an unintended feature of California voting, can undermine confidence in the results, according to a new report about conducting elections during the coronavirus pandemic and other troubled times.

“Fair Elections During a Crisis”<https://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/2020ElectionReport.pdf> was put together by a nationwide panel of 25 election scholars, including professors from UC Berkeley, Stanford and UC Irvine. It includes 14 recommendations “to advance the legitimacy of, and the public’s confidence in, the November 2020 U.S. elections.”

Leading that list is a call to limit delays in reporting election results, since a slow count “invites a distrust of the election process.” The report also warned that “last-minute shifts in the outcome of a state’s election due to late counted ballots … can substantially undermine public confidence in the integrity of the process.”

But with the growing use of mail ballots, many of which arrive after election day, counting delays are inevitable and shifting results common.
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Posted in Election Meltdown<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=127>

“Andrew Yang sues New York Board of Elections over canceled primary”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111046>
Posted on April 28, 2020 8:51 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111046> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

CBS News reports.<https://www.cbsnews.com/news/andrew-yang-sues-new-york-board-of-elections-over-canceled-primary/>
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“How one of America’s most important voting rights groups plunged into chaos just before it was needed most”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111044>
Posted on April 28, 2020 8:24 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111044> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Teddy Schleifer<https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/28/21239380/vote-org-debra-cleaver-silicon-valley-fight-absentee-mail-voting-coronavirus> for ReCode:

A voting rights group called Vote.org seems like precisely the type of nonprofit that should thrive in 2020, with fans from Barack Obama<https://www.billboard.com/articles/news/politics/8480450/barack-obama-urges-young-people-vote-video-coachella> to Taylor Swift<https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/entertainment/taylor-swift-voter-registration/index.html> and a URL that can’t be beat.

Its efforts to expand vote-by-mail — during an election year when more Americans are likely to do exactly that than ever before<https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/25/states-mail-voting-surge-207596> — should only make it more essential.

But the organization, which has established itself as one of the country’s most important civic engagement groups thanks to its research on how to turn out voters with absentee ballots and for its work to help defeat Alabama’s Roy Moore in 2017,<https://medium.com/votedotorg/invest-in-voters-of-color-5a9863d3d6fa> has been derailed in recent months by an ugly internal drama featuring several of Silicon Valley’s most powerful personalities.

Last summer, Vote.org’s board fired founder Debra Cleaver and replaced her with one of the board members that ousted her. That presaged a bitter months-long war between Cleaver’s donors and her former board, and in its aftermath, at least three of Vote.org’s potential partnerships crumbled, millions in expected contributions fell through, and a series of embarrassing missteps tarnished the nonprofit’s brand.

Recode’s interviews with more than two dozen people, including Vote.org’s major donors, partners, and former board members and employees, along with two legal complaints submitted to the California attorney general, paint a portrait of a nonprofit that has been arrested in development. And it couldn’t have come at a worse time: Now that the coronavirus pandemic is likely to stress test the American election system — with voters waiting in five-hour lines in Wisconsin<https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/4/17/21219034/coronavirus-wisconsin-voting-rights-november-election> during the pandemic this month, for instance — the work of organizations like Vote.org, which says<https://www.vote.org/about/> it “plans to turn out more than 5 million low-propensity voters” in 2020, is more important than ever.
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Posted in election law biz<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=51>

“Let’s put the vote-by-mail ‘fraud’ myth to rest”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111041>
Posted on April 28, 2020 1:21 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111041> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Amber McReynolds and Charles Stewart oped<https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/494189-lets-put-the-vote-by-mail-fraud-myth-to-rest> in The Hill:

Vote fraud in the United States is exceedingly rare, with mailed ballots and otherwise. Over the past 20 years, about 250 million votes have been cast by a mail ballot nationally. The Heritage Foundation maintains an online database of election fraud<https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud> cases in the United States and reports that there have been just over 1,200 cases of vote fraud of all forms, resulting in 1,100 criminal convictions, over the past 20 years. Of these, 204 involved the fraudulent use of absentee ballots; 143 resulted in criminal convictions.

Let’s put that data in perspective.

One hundred forty-three cases of fraud using mailed ballots over the course of 20 years comes out to seven to eight cases per year, nationally. It also means that across the 50 states, there has been an average of three cases per state over the 20-year span. That is just one case per state every six or seven years. We are talking about an occurrence that translates to about 0.00006 percent of total votes cast.

Oregon is the state that started mailing ballots to all voters in 2000 and has worked diligently to put in place stringent security measures, as well as strict punishments for those who would tamper with a mailed ballot. For that state, the following numbers apply: With well over 50 million ballots cast, there have been only two fraud cases verifiable enough to result in convictions for mail-ballot fraud in 20 years. That is 0.000004 percent — about five times less likely than getting hit by lightning in the United States.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“2020 Election Sidebar: Can the Election Be Postponed?”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111039>
Posted on April 28, 2020 1:19 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111039> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Jerry Goldfeder column<https://2hljrm13wpep1y93sv1m25vn-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NYLJ-JG-2020-Election-Sidebar-Can-the-Election-Be-Postponed-1.pdf>.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“The legal team that overturned Pa. gerrymandering is suing to relax the state’s absentee ballot deadlines amid the coronavirus outbreak”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111037>
Posted on April 28, 2020 12:30 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111037> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

The Philadelphia Inquirer reports<https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pa-absentee-ballot-deadlines-lawsuit-20200427.html>.
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Posted in absentee ballots<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=53>

“America’s Elections Won’t Be the Same After 2020 The chaos of this year could radically—and permanently—change how Americans vote.”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111035>
Posted on April 28, 2020 12:28 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=111035> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

The Atlantic reports<https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/2020-election-vote-by-mail-ranked-choice-caucuses/610780/>.
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Posted in election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>
http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org<http://electionlawblog.org/>

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