[EL] what if the Census is not defensibly accurate?

[Jeff Hauser]

"BREAKING: Census Bureau confirms all #2020Census counting efforts will be
cut a month short, risking a severe undercount of people of color.
Collecting responses online, over the phone & by mail, plus door knocking
at unresponsive homes, to end on Sept. 30"
https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1290454281632522241

So, yeah. Most likely we're going to have an intentionally wrong census in
a few months. Pretending that whatever Wilbur Ross has done is a real
census seems, to me, wrong.

On Thu, Jul 16, 2020 at 12:14 PM Brunell, Thomas <tbrunell at utdallas.edu>
wrote:

> Hopefully non-response follow-up will be able to reach standard levels of
> coverage, though that may be impossible.  The Bureau will have to rely on
> administrative records and whole household imputation to the extent NRFU
> falls short.  Hot deck imputation usually accounts for around 2 percent of
> all households in recent censuses.  This time it might be  significantly
> higher.  In order for imputation to be reasonably  accurate at higher
> levels of geography we still need people in the field to certify which
> houses are unoccupied and those that are in fact occupied.  Combine really
> high levels of imputation with the new differential privacy methods and it
> will be all but impossible to know how good the census data really are.
>
>
>
> Tom Brunell, Ph.D.
>
> Professor of Political Science
>
> Program Head, Political Science and Public Policy & Political Economy
>
> 800 W. Campbell Drive, GR 31
>
> Richardson, TX 75080
>
> (972) 883-4963
>
>
>
> *From: *Stephanie Singer <sfsinger at campaignscientific.com>
> *Sent: *Thursday, July 16, 2020 10:51 AM
> *To: *Jeff Hauser <jeffhauser at gmail.com>
> *Cc: *Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
> *Subject: *Re: [EL] what if the Census is not defensibly accurate?
>
>
> This is an important hypothetical to consider. It’s within the realm of
> possibility. As is the parallel question for the election.
>
> And if there is no constitutional Plan B, what would be likely to happen
> next?
>
> On Jul 15, 2020, at 3:53 PM, Jeff Hauser <jeffhauser at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> My hypothetical is what happens if the results are trash. We are amidst an
> international pandemic while we have also just seen the twitter accounts of
> half of the world's most powerful people hacked nearly simultaneously. We
> also have a USPS being driven into bankruptcy by decades of ideological
> assault.
>
> I  think saying that it is inconceivable that the Census might end up
> broken beyond repair is... not in good faith. It's a possibility, and
> experts should be thinking about what a Plan B might be within the
> constitutional mandate of a census under the terms specified by statute.
>
> On Wed, Jul 15, 2020 at 6:48 PM Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
> wrote:
>
>> The Census Bureau has plenty of tools beyond just receiving responses
>> from individuals.  The Post Office has records; there are utility records;
>> property tax records including various homestead exemptions that show who
>> lives at a particular address; credit reporting records; drivers license
>> records.  All of those records are held by organizations cooperate with the
>> Census Bureau.
>>
>> Richard Winger 415-922-9779 PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
>>
>>
>> On Wednesday, July 15, 2020, 3:44:10 PM PDT, Jeff Hauser <
>> jeffhauser at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>> What if, due to malice or circumstance (including but not limited to a
>> pandemic), the census that occurs in 2020 does not provide a result in
>> which any person of good will can have confidence?
>>
>> I'm not talking about litigation around the edges -- I am asking what if
>> the whole thing appears rotten. What interpretative standards would be
>> applied by courts, what would be the best work arounds....
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