[EL] ELB News and Commentary 1/2/20

[Levitt, Justin]

Primary voting begins today ...<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108667>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:38 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108667> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

... in the Oscars race.  It's an alternative voting system<https://www.oscars.org/sites/oscars/files/92aa_rules.pdf> for nominations (and in a few categories, for the final result):

In the nominations voting, the marking and tabulation of all ballots shall be according to the preferential, weighted average, or reweighted range voting system. Votes for achievements in motion pictures not on the Reminder List will not be counted in the nominations balloting. Tabulation of final ballots shall be according to the plurality or preferential system. No "write-in" votes shall be counted on the final ballot.

There's a good explanation here<https://www.goldderby.com/article/2019/2020-oscar-nominations-voting/> using last year's Best Actress contenders, and FairVote (among others) will periodically put out explanations of its own<https://www.fairvote.org/how_ranked_choice_voting_leads_to_fair_representation_in_oscar_nominations>.
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Posted in alternative voting systems<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=63>, primaries<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=32>

"Voting Rights Restoration Backlog Leaves Iowans with Felony Convictions Waiting"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108665>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:37 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108665> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Iowa Public Radio<https://www.iowapublicradio.org/post/voting-rights-restoration-backlog-leaves-iowans-felony-convictions-waiting> previews an issue with increased urgency given the February 3 primaries.
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Posted in primaries<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=32>

Unaffiliated voters and the California primaries<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108663>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:37 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108663> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Jessica Levinson forecasts coming confusion in California<https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-01-02/no-preference-party-presidential-primary-california>, a heavily absentee-voting state where voters have now been trained on a "top two" state primary (in which voters can vote on all candidates, no matter their party registration).   But the top two system doesn't apply to the presidential primary.

This year, the California vote is likely to be quite meaningful in the presidential nominating contest ... and voters not already registered in the Democratic party (among others) will have to request a partisan absentee ballot in order to vote in the primary.  That's an extra step that local election officials are doing their best to highlight, but still likely to cause some confusion come election day itself.
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Posted in political parties<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=25>, primaries<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=32>

"Conservatives seek immediate purge of voters in Wisconsin"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108661>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:36 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108661> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

The latest on this saga<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108587> is a motion seeking to hold the members of the Wisconsin Elections Commission in contempt<http://www.startribune.com/conservatives-seek-immediate-purge-of-voters-in-wisconsin/566648591/> for failing to remove 200,000 voter registrations pending an appeal of a state trial court's order.  More here<https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/01/02/wisconsin-judge-asked-hold-officials-contempt-over-voter-rolls/2794045001/>.
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Posted in The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, voter registration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=37>

"'Alabama Counts': How one Republican state bucks national trends and boosts Census awareness"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108659>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:35 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108659> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Alabama is right on the brink of losing a congressional seat - under most projections<https://www.electiondataservices.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/NR_Appor19wTablesMaps.pdf>, it's the state that would get the 436th seat if that were a thing. (And that's if the Census count is actually accurate.)

And so perhaps it's not surprising that Alabama is one of the few conservative states apparently spending substantially on Census outreach<https://www.al.com/news/2019/12/alabama-counts-how-one-republican-state-bucks-national-trends-and-boosts-census-awareness.html>.
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Posted in redistricting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>

"Census 2020 Tests Social-Media Giants' Ability to Combat Disinformation"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108657>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:34 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108657> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

The Wall St. Journal highlights the social media fight against disinformation<https://www.wsj.com/articles/census-2020-tests-social-media-giants-ability-to-combat-disinformation-11577977790> ahead of the 2020 census.
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Posted in chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, Election Meltdown<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=127>, social media and social protests<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=58>

"Americans wary of 2020 census; more than $1 trillion hangs in balance"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108655>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:34 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108655> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

The Washington Times<https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/1/2020-census-questions-unnerve-americans/> on census response.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

"Cyber attacks and electronic voting errors threaten 2020 outcome, experts warn"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108653>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:33 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108653> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

The Guardian reports<https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/02/elections-2020-cyber-attacks-democrats-experts>.

Cybersecurity is exceedingly important.  And now your reminder that at least in the past, we have been more prone to hacking<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=100965> than the voting systems.
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Posted in chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, voting technology<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=40>

"Election Security at the Chip Level"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108651>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:33 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108651> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Semiconductor Engineering<https://semiengineering.com/how-secure-are-electronic-voting-machines/> reports on some of the challenges confronting manufacturers of secure accessible voting systems, and some of the industry efforts to meet those challenges.

That's right, Semiconductor Engineering.  You're welcome.
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Posted in voting technology<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=40>

"Under Trump, voter turnout surges in Virginia's off-year elections"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108649>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:33 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108649> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

The WaPo headline is absolutely accurate<https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/under-trump-voter-turnout-surges-in-virginias-off-year-elections/2020/01/01/fcf9d662-2b36-11ea-9b60-817cc18cf173_story.html>.

And the "surge" they're describing reached 48 percent turnout in 2017, and 43 percent in 2019 - far more than most off-year elections, and still less than a majority of the eligible electorate.
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Posted in voting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=31>

The Year in Recall Elections<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108647>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:32 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108647> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Apropos for the holiday season, the Recall Elections Blog<https://recallelections.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-year-in-recalls-87-recalls-37.html> summarizes some of the "returns and exchanges" of 2019.
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Posted in recall elections<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=11>

"Commission on Appellate Court Appointments in Spotlight as Redistricting Fight Nears"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108645>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:31 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108645> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

In Arizona, the commission on appellate court appointments is also the screening body for applicants to the state's independent redistricting commission.  And with tomorrow's deadline on applications to the commission, KJZZ has a story on some of the upstream impact<https://kjzz.org/content/1377341/commission-appellate-court-appointments-spotlight-redistricting-fight-nears> on the bodies designated to choose those drawing the lines.
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Posted in redistricting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>

"Virginia was home to the first gerrymander. It should also be the home of its solution."<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108643>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:31 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108643> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Sam Wang<https://www.richmond.com/opinion/columnists/sam-wang-column-virginia-was-home-to-the-first-gerrymander/article_c15435fa-6ba8-57eb-9464-cdf7b3847fbf.html> urges the new unilateral Democratic majority in Virginia to follow through on redistricting reform.
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Posted in legislation and legislatures<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=27>, political parties<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=25>, redistricting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>

"Paralysis Grips U.S. Election Overseer While Complaints Pile Up"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108641>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:31 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108641> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Bloomberg (the press entity, not the candidate) reviews the FEC docket<https://about.bgov.com/news/paralysis-grips-u-s-election-overseer-while-complaints-pile-up/>.
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>

"A Century of Votes for Women"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108639>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:30 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108639> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Christina Wolbrecht and J. Kevin Corder with a new book<https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/century-of-votes-for-women/773D75DD40FA858F0412D8F2EE322B5C> on the 100th anniversary of the 19th Amendment.  The abstract:

How have American women voted in the first 100 years since the ratification of the Nineteenth Amendment? How have popular understandings of women as voters both persisted and changed over time? In A Century of Votes for Women, Christina Wolbrecht and J. Kevin Corder offer an unprecedented account of women voters in American politics over the last ten decades. Bringing together new and existing data, the book provides unique insight into women's (and men's) voting behavior, and traces how women's turnout and vote choice evolved across a century of enormous transformation overall and for women in particular. Wolbrecht and Corder show that there is no such thing as 'the woman voter'; instead they reveal considerable variation in how different groups of women voted in response to changing political, social, and economic realities. The book also demonstrates how assumptions about women as voters influenced politicians, the press, and scholars.

Should be an interesting read.
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Posted in 19th Amendment<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=128>, political equality<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=69>

Quantitative election administration studies: early voting and polling place location<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108637>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:30 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108637> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Two studies newly published in the latest issue of the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics series:

Ethan Kaplan and Haishan Yuan, Early Voting Laws, Voter Turnout, and Partisan Vote Composition: Evidence from Ohio<https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20180192>

We estimate effects of early voting on voter turnout using a 2010 homogenization law from Ohio that forced some counties to expand and others to contract early voting. Using voter registration data, we compare individuals who live within the same 2×2 mile squareblock but in different counties. We find substantial positive impacts of early voting on turnout equal to 0.22 percentage points of additional turnout per additional early voting day. We also find greater impacts on women, Democrats, independents, and those of child-bearing and working age. We simulate impacts of national early day laws on recent election outcomes.

Enrico Cantoni, A Precinct Too Far: Turnout and Voting Costs<https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20180306>

I study the effects of voting costs-specifically, distance to polling location-using geographic discontinuities. Opposite sides of boundaries between voting precincts are observationally identical, except for their assigned polling locations. This discontinuous assignment produces sharp changes in voters' travel distance to cast their ballots. In nine municipalities in Massachusetts and Minnesota, a 1 standard deviation (0.245 mile) increase in distance reduces ballots cast by 2 to 5 percent across four elections. During non-presidential elections, effects are three times larger in high-minority areas than in low-minority areas. Finally, I simulate the impact of various counterfactual assignments of voters to polling places.

I look forward to reading these.
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Posted in election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, legislation and legislatures<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=27>, political equality<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=69>, The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

"On Va. Democrats' 2020 to-do list, voting rights seem to top campaign finance reform"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108635>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:28 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108635> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

The Virginia Mercury<https://www.virginiamercury.com/2020/01/02/on-va-democrats-2020-to-do-list-voting-rights-seem-to-top-campaign-finance-reform/> looks at the legislative session ahead.
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

"In ancient Athens, ostracism did the job of impeachment"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108633>
Posted on January 2, 2020 1:27 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108633> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

The Economist seriously shifting the Overton window for impeachment, with a review of ancient Athenian exile<https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2020/01/04/in-ancient-athens-ostracism-did-the-job-of-impeachment>.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

Federal court issues preliminary injunction against 2018 NC voter ID law<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108630>
Posted on January 1, 2020 3:21 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108630> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

The law, enacted over the Governor's veto, usually requires a qualifying photo ID to vote.  As compared to the previous ID law passed in the wake of Shelby County and invalidated in 2016, it expands the list of acceptable IDs (to a list of 10 different types, though with limits on student and government employee IDs) and the means of getting a free ID, applies to absentee as well as in-person ballots, and allows for a voter with a reasonable impediment to getting a photo ID to say so at the polls in order to vote a ballot that should count ... if the administrative process works smoothly.

The court enjoined the law as the product of discriminatory intent, but found that the proven impact was (at least at the preliminary stage) insufficient to make out a "results" violation of section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Stay tuned for the inevitable appeal.

Coverage of the federal court's decision is here<https://abc11.com/politics/nc-judge-formally-strikes-down-voter-id-law/5802798/>, here<https://www.journalnow.com/news/local/judge-blocks-state-s-voter-id-law-calling-it-racially/article_f354e194-519c-558f-86b7-9f0c6a28fb1e.html>, and here<https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article238870598.html>.  The order itself is here<http://dig.abclocal.go.com/wtvd/docs/voter%20ID%20order.pdf>.
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Posted in The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, voter id<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=9>

Chief Justice Roberts's year-end report on the judiciary<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108628>
Posted on January 1, 2020 3:20 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=108628> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

It starts with a tie<https://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/year-end/2019year-endreport.pdf> between the Federalist Papers and the danger of fake news (which started a riot which earned John Jay a rock to the head), and includes a brief paean to the independence of the judiciary from the gentleman about to preside over an impeachment trial.  7 pages, but there's a fair amount of there in there.
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Posted in Election Meltdown<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=127>

Justin Levitt   (he/him/his)
Associate Dean for Research
Professor of Law / Gerald T. McLaughlin Fellow

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