[EL] ELB News and Commentary 3/3/20

Tue Mar 3 08:01:24 PST 2020

My New LA Times Oped on Why Cable News Needs to Stop Its Breathless Coverage of Election Reporting Delays<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109821>
Posted on March 3, 2020 7:59 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109821> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

I have written this piece<https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-03-03/2020-election-confidence-absentee-ballot-security> for the LA Times Opinion section. It begins:

Americans are increasingly worried that the 2020 presidential election will not be safe and secure<https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.npr.org%2F2020%2F01%2F21%2F797101409%2Fnpr-poll-majority-of-americans-believe-trump-encourages-election-interference%3Futm_medium%3DRSS%26utm_campaign%3Dstoriesfromnpr&data=02%7C01%7CSusan.Brenneman%40latimes.com%7Cbcced8b4df7c49e17bb408d7ba3e6241%7Ca42080b34dd948b4bf44d70d3bbaf5d2%7C0%7C0%7C637182649431750332&sdata=UN%2FSdZLiCGAg79WIB6UxIMG8hlPm61yZJcZ70cy91Io%3D&reserved=0>. The news media have done a good job covering the threats, but lost in the headlines about cybersecurity concerns, occasional election administrator incompetence and claims of voter fraud and suppression is journalists’ — especially cable-news journalists’ — own dangerous behavior: breathless reporting on delays in election results and shifts in vote totals from one party to another. This kind of uninformed coverage could contribute to both parties claiming victory in November, and a protracted, ugly, anti-democratic battle for the White House after election day.

Consider CNN’s response to the messy Iowa caucuses. The Iowa Democratic Party used a new tabulating app and new counting rules that failed to work as intended. The next morning, anchor Wolf Blitzer stood in front of a huge screen<https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FKaroli%2Fstatus%2F1229901312948490240&data=02%7C01%7CSusan.Brenneman%40latimes.com%7Cbcced8b4df7c49e17bb408d7ba3e6241%7Ca42080b34dd948b4bf44d70d3bbaf5d2%7C0%7C0%7C637182649431760283&sdata=K%2FI7pjSQM7TViK%2Fi3hQVj0uRlXQA8%2BBbBsubpTlnEV4%3D&reserved=0> with a clock ticking off the hours with no winner declared. In raised-eyebrows colloquies with various reporters and commentators, Blitzer discussed how inexplicable the situation was, what havoc it was creating. The uncertainty was hyped as high drama.

This was deeply irresponsible. It left room for conspiracy theories and claims of foul play. Indeed, President Trump’s campaign manager and his children crowed<https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-campaign-shouts-rigged-iowa-caucuses-thrown-chaos-n1129636> about vote rigging on Twitter. But there is and was no evidence the Iowa Democratic Party was guilty of anything other than (fixable) incompetence.

What’s at stake is voter confidence in our elections. Instead of milking uncertainty in election coverage, journalists should educate themselves, and then the public, about how and why it can take a long time to tally votes and how vote totals can shift precipitously but with no chicanery involved.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“Michigan’s swing state status could put it at risk for Russian election interference”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109819>
Posted on March 3, 2020 7:57 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109819> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Detroit Free Press reports<https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/03/russian-interference-michigan-primary-general-election/4902193002/>.
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Posted in chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>

Redistricting Reform May Still Come to Virginia<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109817>
Posted on March 3, 2020 7:56 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109817> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

AP reports.<https://www.yahoo.com/news/delay-virginia-democrats-advance-redistricting-013325373.html>
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“Some Election-Related Websites Still Run on Vulnerable Software Older Than Many High Schoolers”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109815>
Posted on March 3, 2020 7:54 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109815> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Pro Publica reports.<https://www.propublica.org/article/some-election-related-websites-still-run-on-vulnerable-software-older-than-many-high-schoolers>
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Posted in election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

El Haj: “Too Little Hope, Not Enough Gloom” (Balkinization Symposium on Election Meltdown)<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109813>
Posted on March 3, 2020 7:53 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109813> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Tabatha Abu el-Haj:<https://balkin.blogspot.com/2020/03/too-little-hope-not-enough-gloom.html>

Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy is an accessible, engaging read that synthesizes the stories Rick Hasen systematically collects on his invaluable blog<http://electionlawblog.org/> into a graphic depiction of the stresses on our electoral systems. The most significant include: insidious allegations of voter fraud to provide cover for voter suppression; pockets of incompetence in election administration, including in critical swing states; and hacking and misinformation—the political “dirty tricks” of the digital age. Under the pressure of intensifying political polarization, these three phenomena fuel the most serious threat of all: incendiary rhetoric about “stolen elections.” This rhetoric, which has spread to the Democratic Party, Hasen worries is undermining the bedrock democratic commitment <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uV4UpCq2azs> to peaceful transitions of power<https://ijr.com/barack-obama-lin-manuel-miranda-hamilton-george-washington/>. Not surprisingly, Hasen devotes considerable space to condemning not only those who undermine the public’s faith in the integrity of our electoral system through the spread of fabricated claims about in-person and non-citizen voter fraud but also those who make reckless assertions of “stolen elections.”

Election Meltdown, thus, invites all of us to reflect on the long-term health of American democracy. By writing in a straightforward and vivid manner that is welcoming to those outside the legal academy, Hasen invites a wider audience to reflect on the norms that support the democratic institutions Americans have long taken for granted and the role civil society will ultimately have to play to secure the future of those institutions. In a passage emphasizing how norms, such as the commitment to peaceful transitions between elections, critically support democracies, Hasen writes, “We have to act now to take steps so that the next time there is a razor-thin election—and there will be one, sooner or later—our civil society is strong enough to withstand foreign and domestic efforts to tear us apart.” In this way, Hasen has done more than simply record the specific and cumulative risks of an election meltdown in 2020.

Still, for all that commends it, Election Meltdown suffers from both too little hope, and not enough gloom.
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Posted in Election Meltdown<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=127>

“Case closed: No evidence of hacking alleged by Georgia Gov. Kemp”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109811>
Posted on March 3, 2020 7:48 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109811> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

AJC:<https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/case-closed-evidence-hacking-alleged-georgia-gov-kemp/JeTYlcx3I3Ssb4CiVtdgaO/>

Georgia investigators found no evidence to support Gov. Brian Kemp’s allegation<https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/kemp-office-investigates-georgia-democrats-after-alleged-hacking-attempt/VyyeNgNH4NN6xaXUOfl8HL/> just before Election Day in 2018 that the Democratic Party tried to hack election information, according to a report released Tuesday by the attorney general’s office.

The attorney general’s office closed the case<https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/how-brian-kemp-turned-warning-election-system-vulnerability-against-democrats/iLOkpHK3ea39t8Eh4PCGxM/> that Kemp had opened when he was secretary of state, overseeing the same election he was running for. Kemp made the hacking accusation two days before the election.

See my Slate piece<https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/georgia-governor-candidate-brian-kemp-attempts-last-minute-banana-republic-style-voter-manipulation.html> from Nov. 4, 2018, Brian Kemp Just Engaged in a Last-Minute Act of Banana-Republic Level Voter Manipulation in Georgia.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“Explaining the Blue Shift in Election Canvassing”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109809>
Posted on March 3, 2020 7:42 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109809> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Ned Foley and Charles Stewart have posted this draft<https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3547734> on SSRN. Here is the abstract:

We conduct statistical analysis of a phenomenon identified by Foley (2013), the rise in the number of votes counted after Election Day (“overtime votes”) and the growing tendency of these votes to disproportionately favor Democrats in presidential elections (the “blue shift.”) We provide a historical description of these two time series, from 1948 to 2016, and establish that the timing of the persistent growth in the blue-shifted overtime vote began with the 2004 election. Changes in the time series are broadly consistent with changes in electoral practices, especially in recent years.

We perform statistical analysis to better understand variability across states in the overtime vote and the blue shift in the 2016 presidential election. We discover that variation in the size of the overtime vote is associated with the number of mail and provisional ballots, and with the partisanship of the state. The blue-shift is associated with state partisanship, but not with the number of mail and provisional ballots.

This analysis has relevance to post-Election-Day dynamics, especially in elections where a close election-night results that favor one candidate may yield to close final-canvass results that favor the other candidate. Among the concluding remarks, we discuss the conditions under which overtime votes counted in the 2020 presidential election could prove especially problematic.
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Posted in election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

“Why does it take so long to get election results in California?”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109807>
Posted on March 2, 2020 7:14 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109807> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

LAT explainer.<https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-03-02/super-tuesday-election-results-timing-california>
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“Coronavirus And Super Tuesday Voting: It’s Touchy”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109805>
Posted on March 2, 2020 7:12 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109805> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Pam Fessler <https://www.npr.org/2020/03/02/811323562/coronavirus-and-super-tuesday-voting-its-touchy?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter> for NPR.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

Israel: “Over 70% of ‘coronavirus voters’ cast their ballots in special stations”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109802>
Posted on March 2, 2020 7:11 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109802> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Jerusalem Post<https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Coronavirus-polling-stations-prepare-for-voters-619473>:

More than 70% of the 5,600 citizens who were placed under quarantine due to fear of possible exposure to the coronavirus turned out to vote on Monday at special polling stations set up to allow them to safely cast their ballots.Sixteen special booths were originally set up across the country and were scheduled to be open from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. But long lines and frustrated voters led the Central Elections Committee (CEC) to open additional booths in Kfar Saba and Tel Aviv and to extend voting time until 7 p.m.
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“Some states encourage mail-in ballots as coronavirus worries grow”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109800>
Posted on March 2, 2020 1:37 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=109800> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Politico<https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/02/vote-mail-in-ballots-coronavirus-118813>:

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson at an election law conference in California this weekend said her office has seen a major surge in requests for absentee ballots<https://www.law.uci.edu/events/election-law/election-2020/2020-conference-schedule-tentative.pdf> ahead of its March 10 primary — the first statewide contest in which any voter can cast a ballot by mail.

“The ability to vote from home and vote absentee without a reason is on the rise, and that’s a good thing from a contingency standpoint,” she said….

Hasen, the election expert, said states should consider making either a temporary or permanent allowance for expanded mail-in balloting well ahead of the November general election. It’s better to act sooner rather than later to avoid the risk of confusing voters or making the decision appear politically motivated….

“If there’s one thing that’s more important than a fair and honest election, it’s life and health and safety,” said Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose at the election law conference. “That’s when very difficult decisions have to be made, including whether there needs to be an order to suspend election day. Let’s hope we don’t have to, but we’re ready for it.”
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>
http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org<http://electionlawblog.org/>

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