[EL] Question about mail-in ballots and VRA Section 2 analsyes

Fri May 1 14:57:34 PDT 2020

Hi All,

RE Charles Stewart's statement: "Many jurisdictions use a single
consolidated “absentee precincts,” without distinguishing the precincts the
voters live in.  Check out the North Carolina precinct returns, for
instance."

North Carolina State law requires that the votes from the county wide
absentee precincts (or, commonly, county wide early vote centers) be
redistributed back to the precincts and reported by around December 15 of
the election year (I can't remember the exact date).  They then post those
results on their site, but it's hard to find, so I don't blame people for
thinking they aren't available.

Many other states are examples of what he's talking about, however.

For 2016, NC sent me a link to the file, which I downloaded.

For 2018, I found what I believe to be those data, sent an email for
clarification, and haven't heard back, and also haven't dug into the data,
otherwise I'd provide the link.

I talked to the guy in charge of archiving the results from one NC county,
and he wasn't happy about the law to distribute those votes back to the
precincts.  Hopefully with the VRA gutted the law will remain.  If the NC
law has been changed since the 2016 results were posted, I'd love to know.

Carl

On Fri, May 1, 2020 at 4:22 PM John Tanner <john.k.tanner at gmail.com> wrote:

> Each state actually has in their computers a record of each voter, the
> voter’s precinct, and whether or not the voter cast a ballot, regardless of
> how the vote was cast.  The state needs that information for the NVRA purge
> process.  States often do not have the data in a convenient form, and it
> may cost money to get a breakout, but those data must be in their statewide
> database.
> In my experience there often are racial variations in absentee vs Election
> Day voting, and  attributing can get shaky with non-homogenous precincts.
>
> Stay safe.
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> On May 1, 2020, at 4:05 PM, Dan Meek <dan at meek.net> wrote:
>
>  Oregon continues to have precincts and reports results by precinct.
>
> Dan Meek
> 503-293-9021 dan at meek.net 855-280-0488 fax
>
> On 5/1/2020 12:45 PM, Douglas Johnson wrote:
>
> This has been a significant complication in some California cases, when
> 40% or more of ballots cast in some 1990s and 2000-2010 elections were
> counted in one giant "votes by mail" precinct. There is no way to run
> analysis if there is only one data point.
>
> Depending on the voting machine, counties generally reports different
> counts for each ballot group, so that may be one way to isolate the votes
> into smaller groupings: if you are lucky enough to have many ballot groups
> ("ballot group" meaning a set of voters voting on the exact same set of
> election contests, and thus they can all use the same ballot).
>
> But as jurisdictions move to by-mail balloting and/or vote centers, this
> does become a major issue.
>
> California addressed this with its "Vote Center" legislation, which
> empowers counties to use "vote centers" instead of precincts for election
> administration: but the legislation required that the counties report the
> election results at the small-precinct level:
>
> Elections Code Section 4005 (f)
> <https://codes.findlaw.com/ca/elections-code/elec-sect-4005.html>
>
> For the sole purpose of reporting the results of an election conducted
> pursuant to this section, upon completion of the ballot count, the county
> elections official shall divide the jurisdiction into precincts pursuant to
> Article 2 (commencing with Section 12220) of Chapter 3 of Division 12 and
> shall prepare a statement of the results of the election in accordance with
> Sections 15373 and 15374.
>
>
> I am not sure how OR and WA have handled this in their vote-by-mail rules,
> or if they addressed it at all.
>
> - Douglas Johnson
> President, National Demographics Corporation
> djohnson at NDCresearch.com
>
>
> On Fri, May 1, 2020 at 12:18 PM George Korbel <korbellaw at hotmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> In tx the dist courts have found it for exist the Court has
>>
>> Get Outlook for iOS <https://aka.ms/o0ukef>
>> ------------------------------
>> *From:* Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> on
>> behalf of Jeff Wice <jmwice at gmail.com>
>> *Sent:* Friday, May 1, 2020 2:10:19 PM
>> *To:* Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
>> *Subject:* [EL] Question about mail-in ballots and VRA Section 2 analsyes
>>
>>
>> Dr. Lisa Handley recently pointed out to me an issue related to mail-in
>> ballots and Voting Rights Section 2 compliance. Determining if a
>> redistricting plan complies with Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act
>> requires a racial bloc voting analysis and this is conducted using election
>> precinct returns and other election precinct data.
>>
>> Several counties do not report (and some states do not require) mail-in
>> ballots to be allocated back to the election precinct level but instead
>> simply tabulate and report the votes at the county level. This would  not
>> permit anyone to conduct a racial bloc voting analysis.
>>
>> In these situations, is there any way to ensure that mail-in ballots be
>> reported at the election precinct level as opposed to the county level?
>>
>> Jeff Wice
>> Adjunct Professor/Senior Fellow
>> New York Law School
>> 185 West Broadway
>> New York, NY 10013
>>
>>
>> Sent from Polymail
>> <https://share.polymail.io/v1/z/b/NWVhYzczODc0Yzhi/m23DAIkvzrdXVwCRd0_AzLQS9hrhIVj_zX1ahXBXZMiNB_eGD5dm7_qS5HHltMvrOrimkWctnBuMuDJx4HuNzxPQXrqR4RjxT9wxY6Shiw-zKS2JwXysixD75JFRUOvaRSJzsn4PTipY4LPx__hDoUtZWTvSHyRtx8wJisQ4sgSJsVNQt4gpm0k2zTQ3PwrmlDronxvwB9AMcVpJXMofkfXl0tUK9h1MC0_1p299T9SA4GiT81VK4wG6eMdFEcF8bFQV>
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>
>
>
> --
> - Doug
>
> Douglas Johnson
> National Demographics Corporation
> djohnson at NDCresearch.com
> phone 310-200-2058
> fax 818-254-1221
>
>
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-- 
Dr. Carl Klarner
Klarnerpolitics.org
Former Associate Professor of Political Science
Academic & Consultant
Carl.Klarner at gmail.com
Cell: 812-514-9060
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