[EL] RCV in Maine

Sun Nov 1 02:37:00 PST 2020

Up early. as I adjust to the new clock. I’ll take a bite at Sam's
interesting question.

I would say this prospective outcome is consistent for whom these voters
are *against.* Consider a situation like the one Sam describes, where there
is a strong independent candidate who is able win the instant runoff in a
congressional district, but not statewide. Let’s give the candidates names
drawn from the Star Wars universe:
Candidate A - Darth Vader
Candidate B - Luke Skywalker
Candidate C - Hans Solo

In the single-choice, plurality voting method, suppose Darth Vader gets 40%
in both the statewide vote and in the 2nd congressional district. The
remaining 60% is split differently statewide (with Skywalker getting 32%
and Solo 28%) and in CD 2 (with Solo getting 32% and Skywalker 28%). Under
single-choice rules, Vader sweeps all three electoral votes. Under ranked
choice voting -- assuming general cohesion between backers of Solo and
Skywalker despite some historic tensions between the candidates --
Skywalker gets the two statewide electors and Solo the one elector from CD2.

What was consistent for these voters is that they blocked Darth Vader from
winning any electoral votes. That’s a good outcome for them -- much fairer
than a candidate opposed by a majority winning all of Maine’s electoral
votes.

Lest one think that ranked choice voting only helps rebels against empires,
by the way ,it all depends on the context. Putting this in terms of
Republicans and Democrats, one can imagine Republicans being relieved to
have ranked choice voting in place when a Libertarian or
Constitution Party candidate is on the ballot, while Democrats will be glad
to have it when Green candidates on the ballot. Looking forward, there is
no way to know where fissures in a party's support may come from -- so 2021
is  a great time for policymakers to get a more reliably representative
system in place before the next presidential election.

Rob

On Sunday, November 1, 2020, Samuel S. Wang <sswang at princeton.edu> wrote:

> I depart from what all of you are writing about, but...
>
> Come to think of it, RCV has an interesting quirk when it collides with a
> Maine-style allocation of electoral votes by Congressional district.
>
> Under RCV rules, a citizen's vote could be construed in two ways at the
> same time. Imagine if a third-party candidate had an extreme concentration
> of support in one of the Congressional districts. Then she/he would advance
> to the final round in that district, but not at a statewide level. Then
> some citizens could have their vote count in support of that candidate for
> the district-level elector, but simultaneously be counted for a major-party
> candidate at the statewide level.
>
> I do not think this will ever happen, but it is quite a novelty to imagine
> such a scenario.
>
> -Sam
>
> >>>
>
> Prof. Samuel S.-H. Wang
>
> Neuroscience Institute, Washington Road
>
> Princeton University
>
> Princeton, NJ 08544
>
> Office: (609) 258-0388
> Virtual office: http://princeton.zoom.us/my/samwang
>
>
>
> Neuroscience: synapse.princeton.edu
>
> Elections: election.princeton.edu
>
> Redistricting: gerrymander.princeton.edu
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> on
> behalf of Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org>
> *Sent:* Saturday, October 31, 2020 11:00 PM
> *To:* Kogan, Vladimir <kogan.18 at osu.edu>
> *Cc:* Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] RCV in Maine
>
> Waiting for all ballots to come in before doing the ranked choice tally is
> important for hand tallies, but not with scanned ballots where running a
> ranked choice tally is essentially as easy as pushing a button.
>
> It is a common approach in the California cities with RCV, for example, to
> run RCV tallies on election night two or three times, and then once a day
> until ballot scanning is finished.
>
> This year, Maine should have more than 90% of its ballots centrally
> scanned within two or three days of the election, and it would be a very
> meaningful - and straightforward - exercise to see what  the instant runoff
> tally is at that time. Of course the final tally would remain determinative.
>
> FairVote just released a  SurveyUSA poll of the state of the Maine RCV
> races this week, and presents its findings in a nifty interactive format at
> this webpage:
> https://www.fairvote.org/maine_poll_october2020
>
> On election night, we will be able to use that data and historic voting
> patterns to do a forecast of what the instant runoff results might be when
> all the ballots are counted. It’ll be posted at fairvote.org
>
> Notably, ranked choice voting in our survey had no effect on the margin in
> the presidential race in a second congressional district for the one
> electoral vote to be decided there. Major party candidates are affected by
> ranked voting tallies based on the nature of the voters backing the
> third-party independent candidate along with their willingness to engage
> with the concerns of those voters.
>
> It will be a helpful contrast to show how many votes are preserved in the
> instant runoff tally in the US Senate race in Maine compared to the huge
> drop in turnout we can be sure to see in Georgia when it has its US Senate
> runoff in January. Voting in Georgia is hard enough without having to ask
> people repeatedly to come back to cast ballots instead of just offering
> them a chance to provide their back up choices with a ranked ballot.
>
> Rob
>
>
>
> On Saturday, October 31, 2020, Kogan, Vladimir <kogan.18 at osu.edu> wrote:
>
> I wanted to push back a little on Rick’s comments regarding RCV in Maine
> and the plan to wait until all towns get their votes in before tabulating
> the second round votes. Rick wrote: “This delay is not at all intrinsic to
> RCV. That process can be completed quickly, if not for the Secretary of
> State’s policy choice in Maine to wait in this way.”
>
>
>
> I actually do think this approach *is* intrinsic to RCV. We could imagine
> that in a really close, multi-candidate election (e.g., a San Francisco
> mayoral election with nearly 20 candidates running), it may not be clear
> who the lowest voter-getter will be until all of the votes have been
> counted. Without knowing who came in last, we would not know who to
> eliminate first and whose first-round votes to redistribute. And even if
> the lowest vote-getter is clear, the differences in the vote counts of
> other candidates could also be closed, determining the order in which they
> are eliminated.
>
>
>
> Of course, there will likely be little doubt that Savage ultimately comes
> in last in this particular election, but we could imagine different
> elections with different mixes of candidates playing out differently.
> Waiting until all of the votes are is the only prudent general policy that
> can work for all elections under RCV, it seems to me.
>
>
>
> Vlad
>
>
> Why Maine’s Senate Race Will Likely Not Be Officially Resolved Until A
> Week or so After Nov. 3rd
> <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/electionlawblog.org/?p=117884__;!!KGKeukY!g5VJxhRKE5d0Ae9rE5g2RgmGMk2dkXyww6FjmoO7mkPC7Rq7320IVTbOORLWydvT$>
>
> Posted on October 31, 2020 8:32 am
> <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/electionlawblog.org/?p=117884__;!!KGKeukY!g5VJxhRKE5d0Ae9rE5g2RgmGMk2dkXyww6FjmoO7mkPC7Rq7320IVTbOORLWydvT$>
>  by *Richard Pildes*
> <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/electionlawblog.org/?author=7__;!!KGKeukY!g5VJxhRKE5d0Ae9rE5g2RgmGMk2dkXyww6FjmoO7mkPC7Rq7320IVTbOOanDP0lu$>
>
> Maine’s Senate race is considered close
> <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.politico.com/news/2020/10/30/the-independent-that-could-decide-the-senate-433629__;!!KGKeukY!g5VJxhRKE5d0Ae9rE5g2RgmGMk2dkXyww6FjmoO7mkPC7Rq7320IVTbOOVVrBUvP$>,
> and if so, there’s an additional reason it could take longer — maybe
> several days — to determine who has won. The reason is that Maine now uses
> ranked-choice voting (RCV), and there is an independent, Green New Deal
> candidate, Lisa Savage, polling
> <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.fairvote.org/maine_poll_october2020__;!!KGKeukY!g5VJxhRKE5d0Ae9rE5g2RgmGMk2dkXyww6FjmoO7mkPC7Rq7320IVTbOOQQKh1uk$> in
> the 4-5% range. If the margin between Susan Collins and her Democratic
> opponent, Sara Gideon is less than that when the initial count is
> completed, the Senate outcome would then be determined in the second round
> of the ranked-choice tabulating process, when Savage will be eliminated and
> the second-ranked choices on those ballots will be distributed either to
> Collins or Gideon.
>
> The assumption is that most of Savage’s voters will rank Gideon as their
> second choice, since Savage is the furthest left candidate in the race. But
> Maine has structured that process, as I understand it, so that it won’t get
> to that next stage for nearly a week. I’ve been told (maybe someone has a
> story to link to for this) that the Secretary of State will not turn to the
> second round until the vote totals from every town in the state are in;
> since small towns take several days to finish completing that count, that
> means the RCV process won’t start until the slowest town has finished
> completing its tallies.
>
> This delay is not at all intrinsic to RCV. That process can be completed
> quickly, if not for the Secretary of State’s policy choice in Maine to wait
> in this way.
>
>
>
>
>
> --
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> Rob Richie
> President and CEO, FairVote
> 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/6930+Carroll+Avenue,+Suite+240+%0D%0ATakoma+Park,+MD+20912?entry=gmail&source=g>
> Takoma Park, MD 20912
> rr at fairvote.org  (301) 270-4616  http://www.fairvote.org
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>
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> <https://youtu.be/CIz_nzP-W_c>!*
>
>
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