[EL] "How to Keep Extremists Out of Power"

Sat Feb 27 13:00:01 PST 2021

I'm certainly no expert on this, but treating the three unranked candidates
on the single vote ballot as coming in fourth on that ballot would seem to
give that voter three times the power to eliminate other candidates -- the
voter will have been allowed to cast three 4th place votes.

Mark

[image: Pepperdine wordmark]*Caruso School of Law*

*Mark S. Scarberry*

*Professor of Lawmark.scarberry at pepperdine.edu
<mark.scarberry at pepperdine.edu>*
Personal: mark.scarberry at gmail.com

On Sat, Feb 27, 2021 at 12:15 PM Samuel S. Wang <sswang at princeton.edu>
wrote:

> Dear Chris (cc:all),
>
> That sounds reasonable, though one might want to tinker with the statutory
> wording and do some simulations to make sure the Coombs-rule concept played
> out as desired.
>
> Warmly,
>
> Sam
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Christopher S. Elmendorf <cselmendorf at ucdavis.edu>
> *Sent:* Saturday, February 27, 2021 3:04 PM
> *To:* Samuel S. Wang <sswang at princeton.edu>; Pildes, Rick <
> rick.pildes at nyu.edu>; Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu>; Election Law
> Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
> *Subject:* Re: "How to Keep Extremists Out of Power"
>
>
> Sam, couldn’t this problem be fixed by treating the second ballot as
> having a “tied vote” for 4th place? Candidates Golden, Hoar, and Bond,
> who were not ranked, would all be counted as if they’d been ranked forth.
> The candidate with the most 4th place votes would be eliminated in the
> first round, and then the ballots cast for that candidate would be
> reallocated.
>
>
>
> --C.
>
>
>
>
>
> *From: *Samuel S. Wang <sswang at princeton.edu>
> *Date: *Saturday, February 27, 2021 at 11:56 AM
> *To: *Pildes, Rick <rick.pildes at nyu.edu>, Christopher S. Elmendorf <
> cselmendorf at ucdavis.edu>, Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu>, Election Law
> Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
> *Subject: *Re: "How to Keep Extremists Out of Power"
>
> The Coombs rule is conceptually attractive in a world of perfectly
> compliant voters. But there's an issue. it treats ballot truncation in a
> nonintuitive manner. As written in Grofman and Feld (2004), it treats
> ballots in which only one candidate is ranked as being last-choice ballots.
>
>
>
> For example, this ballot
>
>
>
> 1. Poliquin
>
> 2. Golden
>
> 3. Hoar
>
> 4. Bond
>
>
>
> would eliminate Bond first, whereas this ballot
>
>
>
> 1. Poliquin
>
> 2/3/4 left blank
>
>
>
> would eliminate Poliquin.
>
>
>
> Recall that Poliquin instructed his supporters to make only one choice, as
> a means of protesting the new voting rule. I guess he would not have done
> that if the Coombs rule had applied...but do you really want a rule to
> penalize a candidate whose supporters won't slog all the way down the
> ballot?
>
>
>
> More on what happened in Maine:
>
>
> https://election.princeton.edu/2020/08/13/ranked-choice-voting-on-the-docket-in-maine/
>
>
> https://election.princeton.edu/2020/08/14/ranked-choice-voting-wins-in-court-in-maine/
>
>
>
> Best,
>
> Sam
>
>
>
> >>>
>
> Prof. Samuel S.-H. Wang
>
> Neuroscience Institute, Washington Road
>
> Princeton University
>
> Princeton, NJ 08544
>
> Office: (609) 258-0388
>
> Virtual office: http://princeton.zoom.us/my/samwang
>
>
>
> Neuroscience: synapse.princeton.edu
>
> Redistricting: gerrymander.princeton.edu
>
> Election analytics: election.princeton.edu
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> *From:* Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> on
> behalf of Pildes, Rick <rick.pildes at nyu.edu>
> *Sent:* Saturday, February 27, 2021 2:02 PM
> *To:* Christopher S. Elmendorf <cselmendorf at ucdavis.edu>; Rick Hasen <
> rhasen at law.uci.edu>; Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] "How to Keep Extremists Out of Power"
>
>
>
> I’m glad Chris is raising these questions (and that visualization is
> great, I will use it in class).  These are good questions and I’m
> interested in hearing from others about them.
>
>
>
> Best,
>
> Rick
>
>
>
> Richard H. Pildes
>
> Sudler Family Professor of Constitutional Law
>
> NYU School of Law
>
> 40 Washington Square So.
>
> NYC, NY 10014
>
> 347-886-6789
>
>
>
> *From:* Christopher S. Elmendorf [mailto:cselmendorf at ucdavis.edu]
> *Sent:* Saturday, February 27, 2021 1:20 PM
> *To:* Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu>; Election Law Listserv <
> law-election at uci.edu>; Pildes, Rick <rick.pildes at nyu.edu>
> *Subject:* "How to Keep Extremists Out of Power"
>
>
>
> Apropos Rick P’s excellent op-ed, I’d like to see more public debate about
> the decision rule for retallying votes under RCV systems. To the best of my
> knowledge, every U.S. RCV system drops the candidate with the fewest first
> place votes (or first place + reallocated votes) after each round. But as Bernie
> Grofman showed
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.polisci.upenn.edu_ppec_sawyer_Speakers_Speakers-27-2520Publications_Feld-2DAlternative-2520vote-2520Coombs-2520rule.pdf&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=gzwkqcfuqUsoxvOV9NvO6--MK1Q0HVEAUD2SpkD4Oiw&e=>
> some years ago, the “Coombs Rule,” under which the candidate with the most
> last place votes (or non-rankings) is dropped after each round, does a much
> better job finding the Condorcet winner.
>
>
>
> In a statewide top-4 race between a Trump-style candidate, an AOC-style
> candidate, and a couple of moderates, it seems quite likely that the
> moderate candidates would be eliminated early under the usual RCV rule.
> Here’s a nice visualization
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__imgur.com_gallery_SLTHgCO&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=jpuP7ZliZ-_WEIWfYrpe3on9eM00uUyUtoB71GNLZvY&e=>.
>
>
>
>
> (There’s also a serious question about whether voters can even discern
> candidate ideology
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__onlinelibrary.wiley.com_doi_full_10.1111_lsq.12113-3Fcasa-5Ftoken-3DMhEWDh14tvYAAAAA-253Aj6WZ74-2D9tXhP1olp4-5Fhm6BNZdUMFX70-2D37zBTYJnucp8QmuLfTxu8RnpokqzWB-2DOp4Yz-5Fry2DSfZk4I&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=53eivofqCwWmlCVtMimZFsnoyWGU5NieXDPjEypSSs4&e=>
> in typical legislative races…)
>
>
>
> --Chris
>
>
>
> ------
>
> Christopher S. Elmendorf
>
> Martin Luther King, Jr. Professor of Law
>
> UC Davis School of Law
>
>
>
>
>
>
> “How to Keep Extremists Out of Power”
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__electionlawblog.org_-3Fp-3D120978&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=aIp0iizqCZK6H4Drttf3HmytXEDYanCp8O1sQMi2Rls&e=>
>
> Posted on February 25, 2021 9:59 am
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__electionlawblog.org_-3Fp-3D120978&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=aIp0iizqCZK6H4Drttf3HmytXEDYanCp8O1sQMi2Rls&e=>
>  by *Richard Pildes*
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__electionlawblog.org_-3Fauthor-3D7&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=N-W8zEtfyYkfWvFg_bhM4uQmC2VFNj2zTWahgZ6vnog&e=>
>
> That’s the title the NYT gave my latest piece
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.nytimes.com_2021_02_25_opinion_elections-2Dpolitics-2Dextremists.html&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=Myy2jvfbosqBkLUswBfVOCdihK3XTnqbSeEBkjvqpn4&e=>.
> I’ll include an excerpt here, though it’s a bit hard to excerpt this one
> because I raise reform proposals in four different areas:
>
> *American democracy faces alarming risks from extremist forces that have
> rapidly gained ground in our politics. The most urgent focus of political
> reform must be to marginalize, to the extent possible, these destabilizing
> forces.*
>
> *Every reform proposal must be judged through this lens: Is it likely to
> fuel or to weaken the power of extremist politics and candidates?*
>
> *In healthy democracies, they are rewarded for appealing to the broadest
> forces in politics, not the narrowest. This is precisely why American
> elections take place in a “first past the post” system rather than the
> proportional representation system many other democracies use.*
>
> *What structural changes would reward politicians whose appeal is
> broadest? We should start with a focus on four areas.*
>
> *Reform the presidential nomination process*
>
> *Until the 1970s, presidential nominees were selected through a
> convention-based system, which means that a candidate had to obtain a broad
> consensus among the various interests and factions in the party. “Brokered
> conventions” — which required several rounds of balloting to choose a
> nominee — offered a vivid demonstration of how the sausage of consensus was
> made. In 1952, for example, the Republican Party convention selected the
> more moderate Dwight D. Eisenhower over Robert A. Taft, the popular leader
> of the more extreme wing of the party, who opposed the creation of NATO. …*
>
> *How can we restore some of the party-wide consensus the convention system
> required? The parties can use ranked-choice voting, which allows voters to
> rank candidates in order of preference. This rewards candidates with broad
> appeal to a party’s voters, even if they have fewer passionate supporters.
> … Ranked-choice voting reduces the prospects of factional party candidates.
> Presidents with a broad base of support can institute major reforms, as
> Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson and Ronald
> Reagan demonstrated.*
>
> *Reform the party primaries*
>
> *Many incumbents take more extreme positions than they might otherwise
> endorse because they worry about a primary challenge.*
>
> *One way to help defang that threat is to eliminate “sore-loser” laws.
> These laws, which exist in some form in **47 states*
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__reformelectionsnow.org_wp-2Dcontent_uploads_2020_03_REN-2DWhite-2DPaper-2DSore-2DLoser-2DLaws-2DFINALlk3202020-2D1.pdf&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=YbyNtUDzrG4bzRBgYCmMYhMycolXqv3czsLlX2m3fkM&e=>*,
> bar candidates who have lost in a party primary from running in the general
> election as an independent or third-party candidate. Thus, if a more
> moderate candidate loses in a primary to a more extreme one, that person is
> shut out from the general election — even if he or she would likely beat
> the (sometimes extreme) winners of the party primaries. One **study*
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__citeseerx.ist.psu.edu_viewdoc_summary-3Fdoi-3D10.1.1.384.2884&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=CQtwpCLtFp-Vtzqnxo0EV2iL5F-rpu7QHlyhXoagF74&e=>* finds
> that sore-loser laws favor more ideological candidates: Democratic
> candidates in states with the law are nearly six points more liberal and
> Republicans nearly nine-to-10 points more conservative than in states
> without these laws. …*
>
> *Reform gerrymandering*
>
> *Many reformers agree on the need to take redistricting out of the hands
> of partisan state legislatures and give it to a commission. In several
> recent state ballot initiatives, voters have endorsed this change. But that
> still raises a question: What constitutes a fair map?*
>
> *Redistricting reform should have as a goal the creation of *
> *competitive **election districts. Competitive districts pressure
> candidates from both the left and the right, which creates incentives to
> appeal to the political center. They also encourage more moderate
> candidates to run in the first place, because they know they have a greater
> prospect of winning than in a district whose seat is safe for the other
> party.*
>
> *[I’ve left out suggestions for the right direction for campaign finance
> reform]*
>
> *Jan. 6 provided a painful demonstration of the dangerous currents
> gathering in American political culture. Every proposed election reform
> must now be measured against this reality to make sure political reform
> furthers American democracy.*
>
> I’m aware of ongoing debates about these issues, which there was no space
> to address in the NYT. My goal was to frame the general question and
> encourage debate and discussion about these specific proposals, along with
> additional ones that should be part of the conversation. I’ll respond in
> later posts or elsewhere to what I expect will be some pushback on some of
> these ideas.
>
> [image: Share]
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.addtoany.com_share-23url-3Dhttps-253A-252F-252Felectionlawblog.org-252F-253Fp-253D120978-26title-3D-25E2-2580-259CHow-2520to-2520Keep-2520Extremists-2520Out-2520of-2520Power-25E2-2580-259D&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=Qd6cbzgDEztA0kvALS-gedUi5CNf1_Jsme9sdYRpEKg&e=>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__electionlawblog.org_-3Fcat-3D1&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=3Yrf6Er8CWKa0kt6MHYlCarRjmwnOtfX3E0R68B84xA&e=>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Rick Hasen
>
> Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
>
> UC Irvine School of Law
>
> 401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
>
> Irvine, CA 92697-8000
>
> 949.824.3072 - office
>
> rhasen at law.uci.edu
>
> http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.law.uci.edu_faculty_full-2Dtime_hasen_&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=zml8VgdGNyh6_EMeU8_6Zwl7xO9a0FLdhQ-K8L7rrs8&e=>
>
> http://electionlawblog.org
> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__electionlawblog.org_&d=DwMF-g&c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&r=v3oz9bpMizgP1T8KwLv3YT-_iypxaOkdtbkRAclgHRk&m=OUDXV_PXxCjObt0s6JFe9Ua2eL0-OdErgNbhw3XjigM&s=ptedQqK5MAd91xeNme1YUehhh-NSUfSCH2ekXCHCdlQ&e=>
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