[EL] Our republic is gravely sick

Tue Oct 5 09:29:10 PDT 2021

My view is that the evidentiary basis for the claim that partisan 
animosity is caused by partisanship--the label/affiliation per 
se--rather than policy positions is vastly overstated. Of course, the 
real world does not provide much leverage to disentangle these effects, 
because they tend to be observationally equivalent (although note that 
liberals tend to like Republicans who adopt more moderate positions more).

To my knowledge, the only work to directly and experimentally horse race 
issues versus partisanship is this paper, and it finds the effect of 
issues vastly dominates the effect of party:

The Policy Basis of Measured Partisan Animosity in the United States
American Journal of Political Science
Lilla V. Orr and Gregory A. Huber
https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12498

Abstract
Understanding and addressing the consequences of partisan animosity 
requires knowledge of its foundations. To what extent is animosity 
between partisan groups motivated by dislike for partisan outgroups per 
se, policy disagreement, or other social group conflicts? In many 
circumstances, including extant experimental research, these patterns 
are observationally equivalent. In a series of vignette evaluation 
experiments, we estimate effects of shared partisanship when additional 
information is or is not present, and we benchmark these effects against 
shared policy preference effects. Partisanship effects are about 71% as 
large as shared policy preference effects when each is presented in 
isolation. When an independently randomized party and policy position 
are presented together, partisanship effects decrease substantially, by 
about 52%, whereas policy effects remain large, decreasing by about 10%. 
These results suggest that common measures of partisan animosity may 
capture programmatic conflict more so than social identity–based 
partisan hostility.

On 10/4/2021 6:38 PM, Doug Spencer wrote:
> Like many of you, my cheery Saturday morning was interrupted by Rick 
> P's post highlighting a new and dispiriting poll from the UVa Center 
> for Politics that measured what has come to be called "affective 
> polarization 
> <https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.annualreviews.org%2Fdoi%2F10.1146%2Fannurev-polisci-051117-073034&data=04%7C01%7Cgregory.huber%40yale.edu%7C5439c4d6e30f4c7a5ae608d98787fbd2%7Cdd8cbebb21394df8b4114e3e87abeb5c%7C0%7C0%7C637689840464106704%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=bJ3xEoEMDw2xG64gqbL184OYcXpkK%2BFhqHHE%2BPwYHfI%3D&reserved=0>." 
> Unlike partisan polarization, which captures disagreements about 
> policy issues, affective polarization is a term that refers to the 
> growing social gap between Republicans and Democrats—with increasing 
> numbers of people describing individuals in the "other" political 
> party as dangerous, close-minded, and irredeemable. In recent years 
> there has been an uptick in the number of people who describe members 
> of the out-party in dehumanizing terms, and who express an 
> unwillingness or fear of socializing with them. (Parents are 
> especially wary 
> <https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpolitics%2F2019%2F02%2F21%2Frepublicans-would-least-like-their-kids-marry-transgender-person-democrats-republican%2F&data=04%7C01%7Cgregory.huber%40yale.edu%7C5439c4d6e30f4c7a5ae608d98787fbd2%7Cdd8cbebb21394df8b4114e3e87abeb5c%7C0%7C0%7C637689840464111694%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=TTF2%2FFHmUGm9CGMYxsBK1ly%2F%2Fh9r3%2BBrnsnNCstGe%2F0%3D&reserved=0> 
> of their kids dating/marrying an out-party individual.)
>
> With this backdrop, list members might be interested in the ongoing 
> empirical debate about the relationship between affective polarization 
> and the breakdown of American democracy. In much the same way that 
> empirical scholarship has complicated the intuition/conventional 
> wisdom that gerrymandering causes polarization, the empirical 
> scholarship on affective polarization challenges the reasonable 
> assumption that dehumanizing each other has created a space for 
> autocratic behavior and tolerance for political violence. Recent 
> studies also undercut the argument that mitigating affective 
> polarization will lead to a broad re-commitment to democratic principles.
>
> Tom Edsall nicely summarizes this empirical scholarship and its 
> implications in his column last week "How Much Does How Much We Hate 
> Each Other Matter? 
> <https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2021%2F09%2F29%2Fopinion%2Fpolitical-polarization-partisanship.html&data=04%7C01%7Cgregory.huber%40yale.edu%7C5439c4d6e30f4c7a5ae608d98787fbd2%7Cdd8cbebb21394df8b4114e3e87abeb5c%7C0%7C0%7C637689840464116683%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=bW23QIoEGuXUqgfeFdSEOxoTGfctHCqFJ9LVWQ0eEhs%3D&reserved=0>"
>
> There's not a lot of cheer here. If solving one bad thing won't fix 
> another bad thing, then we're stuck with two bad things. All the more 
> reason that our election laws match the civic virtue (or lack thereof) 
> of those who run for office and lead our government.
>
> Best,
> Doug
>
> -----
> *“Our republic is gravely sick. A new poll confirms it.” *
> October 2, 2021, 7:28 am 
> <https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D124974&data=04%7C01%7Cgregory.huber%40yale.edu%7C5439c4d6e30f4c7a5ae608d98787fbd2%7Cdd8cbebb21394df8b4114e3e87abeb5c%7C0%7C0%7C637689840464121673%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=NxmbV9GAEWtm%2FV7ari%2F60HO6jFQFMOt03%2BMzSJNwIrc%3D&reserved=0>Richard 
> Pildes 
> <https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fauthor%3D7&data=04%7C01%7Cgregory.huber%40yale.edu%7C5439c4d6e30f4c7a5ae608d98787fbd2%7Cdd8cbebb21394df8b4114e3e87abeb5c%7C0%7C0%7C637689840464126664%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=e1e4LTOHvk%2Blb%2F9Tqfrgz1jUJ%2Fok1CEpjwO%2Bp54Rtzs%3D&reserved=0> 
>
>
> In case you were having too cheery a Saturday morning. From Henry 
> Olsen, Wash 
> <https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fopinions%2F2021%2F10%2F01%2Fnew-poll-confirms-it-our-republic-is-gravely-sick%2F&data=04%7C01%7Cgregory.huber%40yale.edu%7C5439c4d6e30f4c7a5ae608d98787fbd2%7Cdd8cbebb21394df8b4114e3e87abeb5c%7C0%7C0%7C637689840464131655%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=jrSaQ35O4tITlOaLcciM%2F2kukekb9vX3IzfyfZwfg6A%3D&reserved=0>ington 
> Post:
>
>     Many Americans are increasingly concerned
>     <https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fopinions%2F2021%2F09%2F23%2Frobert-kagan-constitutional-crisis%2F%3Fitid%3Dlk_inline_manual_2&data=04%7C01%7Cgregory.huber%40yale.edu%7C5439c4d6e30f4c7a5ae608d98787fbd2%7Cdd8cbebb21394df8b4114e3e87abeb5c%7C0%7C0%7C637689840464136645%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=N4griRRE5zatu7%2FF3eZKr8Fl%2BbaKEo%2BhuxeORBS1Nbo%3D&reserved=0>
>     that our national heritage, our democratic republic, is seriously
>     in danger. A new poll
>     <https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcenterforpolitics.org%2Fcrystalball%2Farticles%2Fnew-initiative-explores-deep-persistent-divides-between-biden-and-trump-voters%2F&data=04%7C01%7Cgregory.huber%40yale.edu%7C5439c4d6e30f4c7a5ae608d98787fbd2%7Cdd8cbebb21394df8b4114e3e87abeb5c%7C0%7C0%7C637689840464141636%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=48lAUl18%2Fwy8QRMfzyqKldCXW1XIW7i0hjNNlurfVlM%3D&reserved=0>
>     from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics confirms
>     that we have reason to worry — and that the fault is in ourselves,
>     not our political stars….
>
>
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-- 
==============================================================
Gregory A. Huber
gregory.huber at yale.edu
huber.research.yale.edu

Yale University
Forst Family Professor of Political Science
Chair, Department of Political Science
Associate Director, Center for the Study of American Politics
Director, ISPS Behavioral Research Lab
Resident Fellow, Institution for Social and Policy Studies
Associate Editor, Quarterly Journal of Political Science
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