[EL] Master class in gerrymandering - comparing California and New York State / Jamie Raskin and interstate compacts

Thu Feb 3 20:50:32 PST 2022

I'm puzzled that anyone would expect that the two 85 percents would ever match up. If you win 50%+1 of the votes in a congressional district, you get 100% of the district.

In an election in some theoretical state that was 50.1% Republican and 49.9% Democratic, absolutely evenly distributed throughout the state, with no gerrymandering whatsoever, and everyone voted their party, Republicans would pick up 100% of the seats in every election at every level – a partisan distortion of 49.9% with perfectly fairly drawn districts.

Tom
On Feb 3, 2022, 7:44 PM -0500, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org>, wrote:
Hi, Folks,
The thoughtful posts on the election law blog come quickly these days - thank you to the team of professors making that possible.

I wanted to pick up on two recent posts on gerrymandering: Rick Pildes' post<https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D127360&data=04%7C01%7Ctmoore%40fec.gov%7C9661c90f6771476f675808d9e7776d55%7Cee91fa706c9d45e0bb084a355de91010%7C0%7C1%7C637795322407997822%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=4D1FAHpoxJU%2BpvbfRReVfLg%2BY%2FZsQLKe7FnjvG9lMj0%3D&reserved=0> on the likely New York State redistricting map and Ned Foley's post<https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D127338&data=04%7C01%7Ctmoore%40fec.gov%7C9661c90f6771476f675808d9e7776d55%7Cee91fa706c9d45e0bb084a355de91010%7C0%7C1%7C637795322407997822%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=RxwEZj9i6nodFXas6BrcylLEUetStoRLI1lBiuWs4aA%3D&reserved=0> calling out law professor Congressman Jamie Raskin for rationalizing such partisan gerrymanders.

First, I'm regularly impressed by the Brennan Center's analytical and advocacy prowess in general and Michael Li's work on redistricting in particular. That said, I wanted to flag Michael's quote in the New York Times today cited by Rick Pildes today on New York's gerrymandering: "“It’s a master class in how to draw an effective gerrymander. Sometimes you do need fancy metrics to tell, but a map that gives Democrats 85 percent of the seats in a state that is not 85 percent Democratic — this is not a particularly hard case."

It is indeed true that Democrats would be favored in 85% of New York congressional races in a state where Biden won 61% of the vote, a  partisan distortion toward Democrats of 24%. At the same time, we can also look over to California's now finished congressional map<https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fprojects.fivethirtyeight.com%2Fredistricting-2022-maps%2Fcalifornia%2F&data=04%7C01%7Ctmoore%40fec.gov%7C9661c90f6771476f675808d9e7776d55%7Cee91fa706c9d45e0bb084a355de91010%7C0%7C1%7C637795322407997822%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=X6KqmFH8E0PbhcluqB%2BN9FELgDLsPROMsyMHUq2h5y0%3D&reserved=0> drawn by its citizen commission. There, according to FiveThirtyEight.com, Democrats are favored in 43 of 52 seats in a state where Biden won 63% of the vote. That's 83% of seats. If Democrats picked up the 2 swing seats, that would mean they would carry 87% of seats - meaning a partisan distortion of between 20% and 24% for the Democrats.  And, relating to the understandable critique of Texas' congressional map that it creates so many safer seats, it's notable to me that not a single California seat is inside a partisanship range of 54% to 46%, with only 6 districts inside 58% to 42%

This is not a critique of the California commission per se, as it was juggling a lot of factors, including being attentive to communities of interest and opportunities for racial minorities to win seats. But it is a critique of the underlying winner-take-all electoral rules that so often govern what's possible to achieve within a single member district regime. It makes me all the more committed to finding a way forward to winning the final version of Congressman Don Beyer's Fair Representation Act<https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fairrepresentation.com%2F&data=04%7C01%7Ctmoore%40fec.gov%7C9661c90f6771476f675808d9e7776d55%7Cee91fa706c9d45e0bb084a355de91010%7C0%7C1%7C637795322407997822%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=6d2N%2FEDB2PEdzEl1koQ0QceEjdeeoXKpSfgc295WWxs%3D&reserved=0> where all voters in every election would have the power to define their own representation with a meaningful vote.

Second, as to Ned's chiding of Jamie Raskin, I'll note that the Congressman has consistently urged solutions that are fair to everyone. He is an original and ongoing cosponsor of the Fair Representation Act, for example. When in the Maryland state senate, he proposed a creative bill to allow Maryland to enter into interstate compacts<https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fairvote.org%2Finterstate_compacts_for_fair_representation&data=04%7C01%7Ctmoore%40fec.gov%7C9661c90f6771476f675808d9e7776d55%7Cee91fa706c9d45e0bb084a355de91010%7C0%7C1%7C637795322407997822%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=kg1ZuHdLklqvS2WXwRPN12bbzQJf4RA1s%2F%2FwRaFs41I%3D&reserved=0> with other states to come up with a negotiated fair representation plan. Jamie for years has extended a hand for a deal to establish a system that is fair to everyone. Let's hope more show readiness to take him up on it!

Rob

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