election-law_gl-digest Saturday, July 14 2001 Volume 01 : Number 042
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Date: Sat, 14 Jul 2001 14:49:44 -0700
From: "Rick Hasen" <Rick.Hasen@lls.edu>
Subject: How Bush Took Florida: Mining the Overseas Absentee Vote
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Rick Hasen
Professor of Law and William M. Rains Fellow
Loyola Law School
919 South Albany Street
Los Angeles, CA 90015-1211
(213)736-1466 - voice
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rick.hasen@lls.edu
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<NYT_HEADLINE version=3D"1.0" type=3D" ">
<h2>How Bush Took Florida: Mining the Overseas Absentee Vote</h2>
</NYT_HEADLINE>
<p></p>
<NYT_BYLINE version=3D"1.0" type=3D" "><h5>By DAVID BARSTOW and DON VAN =
NATTA Jr.</h5></NYT_BYLINE>
<p></p>
<NYT_TEXT><font class=3Dtsa><p><IMG SRC=3D"http://graphics.nytimes.com/im=
ages/dropcap/o.gif" ALIGN=3D"left" ALT=3D"O">n the morning after Election=
Day, George W. Bush held an unofficial lead of 1,784 votes in Florida, b=
ut to his campaign strategists the margin felt perilously slim. They were=
right to worry. Within a week, recounts would erode Mr. Bush's unofficia=
l lead to just 300 votes. </p>
<p>With the presidency hanging on the outcome in Florida, the Bush team q=
uickly grasped that the best hope of ensuring victory was the trove of ba=
llots still arriving in the mail from Florida residents living abroad. Ov=
er the next 18 days, the Republicans mounted a legal and public relations=
campaign to persuade canvassing boards in Bush strongholds to waive the =
state's election laws when counting overseas absentee ballots. </p>
<p>Their goal was simple: to count the maximum number of overseas ballots=
in counties won by Mr. Bush, particularly those with a high concentratio=
n of military voters, while seeking to disqualify overseas ballots in cou=
nties won by Vice President Al Gore. </p>
<p>A six-month investigation by The New York Times of this chapter in the=
closest presidential election in American history shows that the Republi=
can effort had a decided impact. Under intense pressure from the Republic=
ans, Florida officials accepted hundreds of overseas absentee ballots tha=
t failed to comply with state election laws. </p>
=
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m/images/misc/spacer.gif" width=3D"5" height=3D"1" border=3D"0"/></td><td=
width=3D"172"><!--BEGIN INTERACTIVE PROMO-->
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<td><a href=3D"javascript:pop_me_up('http://www.nytimes.com/images/2001/0=
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<td><font face=3D"Times New Roman, Times, serif" color=3D"#FFFFFF">A loo=
k =
at the controversial overseas absentee vote, and its possible impact on t=
he 2000 Election.<br>
<br>
<a href=3D"javascript:pop_me_up('http://www.nytimes.com/images/2001/07/15=
/politics/absentee/nat_ABSENTEE_count_index.html', 'width=3D550,height=3D=
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ccc"><img src=3D"http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/misc/spacer.gif" widt=
h=3D"1" height=3D"1" border=3D"0"/></td></tr><tr><td colspan=3D"5"><img s=
rc=3D"http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/article/relatedArticles.gif" wid=
th=3D"184" height=3D"22" border=3D"0" align=3D"center" alt=3D"Related Art=
icles"/></td></tr><tr><td width=3D"1" bgcolor=3D"#cccccc"><img src=3D"htt=
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om/images/misc/spacer.gif" width=3D"5" height=3D"1" border=3D"0"/></td><t=
d width=3D"172"><font size=3D"-1"><a href=3D"/2001/07/15/national/15METH.=
html">How the Ballots Were Examined</a> (July 15, 2001)</font><br><br><fo=
nt size=3D"-1"><a href=3D"/2001/07/15/politics/15ORLA.html">Examining the=
Vote: Timely but Tossed Votes Were Slow to Get to the Ballot Box</a> (Ju=
ly 15, 2001)</font><br><br><font size=3D"-1"><a href=3D"/2001/07/15/natio=
nal/15HOUS.html">House Republicans Pressed Pentagon for E-Mail Addresses =
of Sailors</a> (July 15, 2001)</font><br><br><font size=3D"-1"><a href=3D=
"/2001/07/15/politics/15DEMS.html">Examining the Vote: Lieberman Put Demo=
crats In Retreat on Military Vote</a> (July 15, 2001)</font><br><br><font=
size=3D"-1"><a href=3D"/2001/07/15/national/15REFO.html">Florida Revisit=
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<p>In an analysis of the 2,490 ballots from Americans living abroad tha=
t were counted as legal votes after Election Day, The Times found 680 que=
stionable votes. Although it is not known for whom the flawed ballots wer=
e cast, four out of five were accepted in counties carried by Mr. Bush, T=
he Times found. Mr. Bush's final margin in the official total was 537 vot=
es. </p>
<p>The flawed votes included ballots without postmarks, ballots postmarke=
d after the election, ballots without witness signatures, ballots mailed =
from towns and cities within the United States and even ballots from vote=
rs who voted twice. All would have been disqualified had the state's elec=
tion laws been strictly enforced. </p>
<p>The Republican push on absentee ballots became an effective counterwei=
ght to the Gore campaign's push for manual recounts in mainly Democratic =
counties in southern Florida. </p>
<p>In its investigation, The Times found that these overseas ballots - th=
e only votes that could legally be received and counted after Election Da=
y - were judged by markedly different standards, depending on where they =
were counted. </p>
<p>The unequal treatment of these ballots is at odds with statements by B=
ush campaign leaders and by the Florida secretary of state, Katherine Har=
ris, that rules should be applied uniformly and certainly not changed in =
the middle of a contested election. It also conflicts with the equal prot=
ection guarantee that the United States Supreme Court invoked in December=
when it halted a statewide manual recount and effectively handed Florida=
to Mr. Bush. </p>
<p>After being told of The Times's findings, Ari Fleischer, the White Hou=
se spokesman, said: ``This election was decided by the voters of Florida =
a long time ago. And the nation, the president and all but the most parti=
san Americans have moved on.'' </p>
<p>The Times study found no evidence of vote fraud by either party. In pa=
rticular, while some voters admitted in interviews that they had cast ill=
egal ballots after Election Day, the investigation found no support for t=
he suspicions of Democrats that the Bush campaign had organized an effort=
to solicit late votes. </p>
<p>Rather, the Republicans poured their energy into the speedy delivery a=
nd liberal treatment of likely Bush ballots from abroad. In a Tallahassee=
``war room'' within the offices of Ms. Harris, veteran Republican politi=
cal consultants helped shape the post-election instructions to county can=
vassing boards. In Washington, senior Bush campaign officials urged the P=
entagon to accelerate the collection and delivery of military ballots, an=
d indeed ballots arrived more quickly than in previous elections. Republi=
cans on the House Armed Services Committee helped the campaign obtain pri=
vate contact information for military voters. </p>
<p>Republicans provided their lawyers with a detailed playbook that inclu=
ded instructions on how to challenge likely Gore votes while fighting for=
the inclusion of likely Bush votes. In some counties where Mr. Gore was =
strong, Bush lawyers stood by silently while Gore lawyers challenged over=
seas ballots, even likely Gore ballots. </p>
<p>The effectiveness of the Republican effort is demonstrated by striking=
disparities in how different counties treated ballots with similar defec=
ts. For instance, counties carried by Mr. Gore accepted 2 in 10 ballots t=
hat had no evidence they were mailed on or before Election Day. Counties =
carried by Mr. Bush accepted 6 in 10 of the same kinds of ballots. Bush c=
ounties were four times as likely as Gore counties to count ballots lacki=
ng witness signatures and addresses. </p>
<p>In reconstructing the story of the absentee vote, The Times collected =
copies of virtually all the overseas ballot envelopes that arrived after =
Election Day and built a comprehensive database for statistical analysis.=
The Times also examined thousands of pages of election documents and can=
vassing board meeting transcripts and interviewed more than 300 voters in=
43 countries. </p>
<p>Because the ballots themselves are separated from the envelopes contai=
ning voter information, it is impossible to know whether the outcome of t=
he election would have been different had the flawed ballot envelopes bee=
n treated consistently. </p>
<p>The Times asked Gary King, a Harvard expert on voting patterns and sta=
tistical models, what would have happened had the flawed ballots been dis=
carded. He concluded that there was no way to declare a winner with mathe=
matical certainty under those circumstances. His best estimate, he said, =
was that Mr. Bush's margin would have been reduced to 245 votes. Dr. King=
estimated that there was only a slight chance that discarding the questi=
onable ballots would have made Mr. Gore the winner. </p>
<p>Separate from this investigation, a consortium of newspapers, includin=
g The Times, has hired experts to examine all ballots cast in Florida to =
see whether the official count was affected by faulty voting machines. Th=
e results are expected later this summer. </p>
</font></NYT_TEXT><br clear=3Dall>
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