election-law_gl-digest Sunday, July 15 2001 Volume 01 : Number 043
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Date: Sun, 15 Jul 2001 11:24:13 -0700
From: "Volokh, Eugene" <VOLOKH@mail.law.ucla.edu>
Subject: FW: How Bush Took Florida: Mining the Overseas Absentee Vote
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Just to clarify the possible unintentional ambiguity caused by the
headline: According to the Times, the absentee votes weren't "How Bush
Took Florida" in the sense of being a but-for cause of Bush taking Florida
--
Times asked Gary King, a Harvard expert on voting patterns
and statistical
models, what would have happened had the flawed ballots been
discarded. He
concluded that there was no way to declare a winner with
mathematical certainty
under those circumstances. His best estimate, he said, was
that Mr. Bush's margin
would have been reduced to 245 votes. Dr. King estimated
that there was only a
slight chance that discarding the questionable ballots would
have made Mr. Gore the
winner.
Eugene
-----Original Message-----
From: Rick Hasen [SMTP:Rick.Hasen@lls.edu]
Sent: Saturday, July 14, 2001 2:50 PM
To: election-law@majordomo.lls.edu
Subject: How Bush Took Florida: Mining the Overseas Absentee Vote
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/15/national/15BALL.html
--
Rick Hasen
Professor of Law and William M. Rains Fellow
Loyola Law School
919 South Albany Street
Los Angeles, CA 90015-1211
(213)736-1466 - voice
(213)380-3769 - fax
rick.hasen@lls.edu
<< File: 15BALL.html >>
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<TITLE>FW: How Bush Took Florida: Mining the Overseas Absentee =
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<P> <FONT COLOR=3D"#000080" =
FACE=3D"Arial">Just to clarify the possible unintentional ambiguity =
caused by the headline: According to the Times, the absentee =
votes weren't "How Bush Took Florida" in the sense of being a =
but-for cause of Bush taking Florida --</FONT></P>
<P><FONT COLOR=3D"#000080" =
FACE=3D"Arial"> &nb=
sp; Times asked Gary King, a Harvard expert on voting =
patterns and statistical</FONT>
<BR><FONT COLOR=3D"#000080" =
FACE=3D"Arial"> &nb=
sp; models, what would have happened had the flawed =
ballots been discarded. He</FONT>
<BR><FONT COLOR=3D"#000080" =
FACE=3D"Arial"> &nb=
sp; concluded that there was no way to declare a =
winner with mathematical certainty</FONT>
<BR><FONT COLOR=3D"#000080" =
FACE=3D"Arial"> &nb=
sp; under those circumstances. His best estimate, he =
said, was that Mr. Bush's margin</FONT>
<BR><FONT COLOR=3D"#000080" =
FACE=3D"Arial"> &nb=
sp; would have been reduced to 245 votes. Dr. King =
estimated that there was only a</FONT>
<BR><FONT COLOR=3D"#000080" =
FACE=3D"Arial"> &nb=
sp; slight chance that discarding the questionable =
ballots would have made Mr. Gore the</FONT>
<BR><FONT COLOR=3D"#000080" =
FACE=3D"Arial"> &nb=
sp; winner.</FONT>
</P>
<P> <FONT COLOR=3D"#000080" =
FACE=3D"Arial">Eugene</FONT>
</P>
<UL>
<P><FONT SIZE=3D1 FACE=3D"Arial">-----Original Message-----</FONT>
<BR><B><FONT SIZE=3D1 FACE=3D"Arial">From: </FONT></B> <FONT =
SIZE=3D1 FACE=3D"Arial">Rick Hasen [SMTP:Rick.Hasen@lls.edu]</FONT>
<BR><B><FONT SIZE=3D1 FACE=3D"Arial">Sent: </FONT></B> <FONT =
SIZE=3D1 FACE=3D"Arial">Saturday, July 14, 2001 2:50 PM</FONT>
<BR><B><FONT SIZE=3D1 =
FACE=3D"Arial">To: </FONT></B> <FONT SIZE=3D1 =
FACE=3D"Arial">election-law@majordomo.lls.edu</FONT>
<BR><B><FONT SIZE=3D1 =
FACE=3D"Arial">Subject: </FONT>=
</B> <FONT SIZE=3D1 FACE=3D"Arial">How Bush Took Florida: Mining the =
Overseas Absentee Vote</FONT>
</P>
<BR>
<P><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial"><A =
HREF=3D"http://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/15/national/15BALL.html" =
TARGET=3D"_blank">http://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/15/national/15BALL.html=
</A></FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">--</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">Rick Hasen</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">Professor of Law and William M. Rains =
Fellow</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">Loyola Law School</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">919 South Albany Street</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">Los Angeles, CA =
90015-1211</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">(213)736-1466 - voice</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">(213)380-3769 - fax</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">rick.hasen@lls.edu</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial"> << File: 15BALL.html =
>> </FONT>
</P>
</UL>
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End of election-law_gl-digest V1 #43
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